Paying Off Unfunded Pension Liabilities Will Be A Low Priority After COVID-19 (#GotBitcoin)
Our most recent update of state and local pension plans showed that — even after nearly a decade of stock market gains — plans were only about 70% funded in fiscal year 2020. Paying Off Unfunded Pension Liabilities Will Be A Low Priority After COVID-19 (#GotBitcoin)
That funded ratio discounts future benefits by the plan’s assumed rate of return (7.2%); the ratio would be lower with a lower discount rate (see figure 1).
At the same time, experts from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) predict that state budget shortfalls from the economic impact of COVID-19 will total a cumulative $555 billion over the period 2020-22. This figure is for states only and does not reflect revenue shortfalls at the local level.
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The CBPP reports that the projected gap for fiscal year 2021 alone (which started July 1 for most jurisdictions) is much larger than for any year during the Great Recession (see figure 2). The impact on governments has already been dramatic. In the last four months, states and localities have furloughed or laid off 1.5 million workers — double the number during the entire Great Recession.
In the next couple of years, states — which must balance their budgets every year — will face the tradeoff of deep cuts in education and health care and further layoffs, on the one hand, and funding their pensions on the other. Most observers would probably agree that pension funding could be postponed.
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More fundamentally, the standard recommendation that sponsors need to eliminate all their unfunded liability over 30 years is increasingly being called into question.
For years, we have argued that liabilities created before plans started to pre-fund their pension benefits should be taken off the backs of today’s workers and financed by outside sources as they come due (and coupled with more conservative funding methods — such as a lower discount rate and shorter amortization period — for liabilities created afterward). More recently, other researchers have made the case for stabilizing the ratio of unfunded liability to state GDP. Such a goal would also stabilize the ratio of debt service to output, requiring no further increases in taxes or cuts in outlays to maintain pensions.
These more moderate funding approaches seem sensible in the best of times. But they seem particularly helpful given the history of the 21st century, where the plans have been swamped with the retirement of baby boomers (a phenomenon that should end by 2030), two major market corrections in 2000-01 and 2007-09, and three recessions that depleted the revenues of state and local governments. In this context, blindly accumulating assets equal to 100% of the present value of promised benefits really doesn’t seem like a sensible goal.
Updated: 12-28-2020
Pensions Swamped In A Sea Of Negative Real Rates
It was hard enough for defined-benefit retirement plans to tread water before Covid-19. A slow recovery could put them in a near-impossible position.
Defined-benefit pension plans were already barely treading water heading into 2020. In the years ahead, the risk is as great as ever that a large swath of them will drown.
As the name implies, defined-benefit pensions promise to pay a set amount to retirees. While corporate America has largely moved away from this structure in favor of 401(k) options (or “defined contribution” plans), virtually all state and local governments still offer these reliable retirement payouts.
And they’ve been falling behind in a big way: In the 2019 fiscal year, states had $1.48 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities, while the 50 largest local governments faced $478 billion in adjusted net pension liabilities, according to calculations from Moody’s Investors Service. The 100 largest corporate defined-benefit plans had a deficit of $285 billion in November, according to Milliman data.
That $2 trillion hole is only going to get deeper as the Federal Reserve pledges to keep interest rates near record-low levels for years to come as the U.S. emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic. Moody’s, unlike many states and cities, uses a market-based discount rate to determine the present value of a pension’s future liabilities.
The lower the rate, the larger the current value. Analysts expect to apply a 2.7% rate to local governments’ fiscal 2021 reporting, down from 4.14% in fiscal 2018 and about the same as Milliman’s current discount rate for corporate pensions. It will likely cause pension shortfalls “to increase by double-digit percentages” in the next two years, Moody’s says.
As harrowing as that seems, the 2.7% rate is likely to prove higher than anything pension-fund managers can hope to get from low-risk fixed-income assets, especially when adjusted for inflation. The 30-year U.S. real yield has been negative since mid-June after never falling below zero at any point since at least 2004.
That means even if pensions buy huge amounts of the longest-dated Treasuries, it’s nearly impossible for them to fully “immunize” by aligning principal and interest payments with payouts to retirees such that the value of its assets and liabilities rise and fall in tandem.
The only options, then, are to either shovel more money into the plans, take ever-greater risks with the cash promised to public workers or both. Because of Covid-19, many municipalities are strapped and don’t have much in the way of extra funds.
And pensions were already big players in alternative strategies like hedge funds and private equity, yet still fell behind in the decade after the global financial crisis as they assumed annual returns in the ballpark of 7%.
Ultralow interest rates can clearly help jump-start economic activity. Less-onerous mortgage rates open up homeownership to a larger share of Americans. Creditworthy companies can borrow cheaply for research, for new capital projects or, in the case of 2020, to avoid widespread layoffs.
The Fed, meanwhile, hopes that by keeping its short-term rate near zero until inflation overshoots its 2% target for an extended period of time, it will one day be able to conduct monetary policy further away from zero than it has in the past 12 years.
Until that day arrives, however, the plight of pension funds — and particularly public pensions — is only going to worsen. It’s one thing for the central bank to strong-arm wealthy individuals or multibillion-dollar endowments out of Treasuries and into riskier assets to earn a positive return. It’s quite another to jeopardize the system that has for decades ensured that teachers, police officers and firefighters are positioned for retirement.
“The prospect of an extended period of negative real rates makes it’s very difficult for the defined-benefit pension plans and insurance companies that depend on some level of relatively low risk return,” John Hollyer, global head of fixed income at Vanguard Group Inc., said in an interview.
He expects negative real rates to last for a few years. “One of the unintended consequences could be that sponsors of defined-benefit pension plans wind up having to make larger contributions to those plans to meet their obligations, and also restructure the plans over time.”
At BlackRock Inc., they’re calling this period the “new nominal.” It’s an era defined by stronger near-term growth and eventually higher inflation but without the usual increase in bond yields. “Central banks appear committed to limit any rises in nominal yields even as inflation picks up,” according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2021 global outlook.
“Investors will need a new playbook to navigate this. We underweight government bonds and maintain a higher strategic allocation to equities than in typical periods of rising inflation.”
To Hollyer at Vanguard, this raises the risk of asset bubbles that the Fed might struggle to contain. By describing the set of conditions it would take to begin paring back asset purchases, and then to raise interest rates, the central bank is left mostly powerless to push back on some of the easiest financial conditions on record.
In a somewhat unusual move, Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Dec. 16 press conference seemed to try to justify all-time high stock prices by noting that the 10-year Treasury yield was historically low and is expected to stay that way.
“I get that you have to be patient, but at some point the central banks do realize they have to restore government bond yields to a rational, positive level of real yield,” said Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“Insurance companies and pension funds, you’ve removed the ability for them to de-risk, and you’ve also inflated their liabilities.
At this level of bond yields, they’ll never be able to generate the 7% return on an ongoing basis that they need. They can absorb it over the short term, but longer term, it’s a reason to raise rates.”
In July, when 30-year Treasury yields were around 1.3%, Bank of America Corp. strategists warned that pension managers would revolt and stay away from the world’s biggest bond market until yields increased by “at least” 50 basis points. Otherwise, adding Treasuries would only “lock in such large funding gaps and also lock in low rates of return on the bonds.”
Five months later, the long bond hasn’t yet reached 1.8%, while the benchmark 10-year yield remains stubbornly below 1%.
While investors refuse to sell Treasuries, they’re also not keen on shedding stocks, either. The S&P 500 Index has moved in an almost linear fashion higher since the worst of the coronavirus pandemic in March and April.
It got to the point where I wrote that Chicago should be cheering on September’s decline in U.S. technology stocks so its underfunded pensions could buy the dip, potentially by issuing bonds to raise the funds. That drop didn’t last long.
“A drawdown in the market is a good thing,” said Nick Maroutsos, head of global bonds at Janus Henderson Investors. Without that, “it can be a problem because it’s going to hurt earnings, it’s going to hurt return expectations and just overall returns for future generations. And the lessons it teaches — any sort of selloff, you just buy it, knowing full well that defaults will be limited, money will be provided, liquidity will be there.”
Now, pensions are left with little choice but to risk it all and buy stocks near their all-time highs or give even more money to hedge funds or distressed credit managers. The alternative of adding investment-grade corporate bonds that yield less than 2% is a non-starter, to say nothing of Treasuries.
This is by design. Even if the Fed can’t as easily fire up its credit facilities in 2021, investors know they’re an option during periods of crisis. It’s enough to have potentially changed markets forever. Unfortunately, the central bank’s commitment to ultralow interest rates for years has also put defined-benefit plans on track for significant struggles ahead.
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H.R.5635 – Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act of 2020 ($200.00 Limit) 116th Congress (2019-2020)
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Google Suspends MetaMask From Its Play App Store, Citing “Deceptive Services”
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At A Refugee Camp In Iraq, A 16-Year-Old Syrian Is Teaching Crypto Basics
Bitclub Scheme Busted In The US, Promising High Returns From Mining
Bitcoin Advertised On French National TV
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Charities Put A Bitcoin Twist On Giving Tuesday
Family Offices Finally Accept The Benefits of Investing In Bitcoin
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Bitcoin’s Irreversibility Challenges International Private Law: Legal Scholar
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Unicef To Accept Donations In Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Former Prosecutor Asked To “Shut Down Bitcoin” And Is Now Face Of Crypto VC Investing (#GotBitcoin?)
Switzerland’s ‘Crypto Valley’ Is Bringing Blockchain To Zurich
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Bitcoin Developer Amir Taaki, “We Can Crash National Economies” (#GotBitcoin?)
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SEC Enters Settlement Talks With Alleged Fraudulent Firm Veritaseum (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockstream’s Samson Mow: Bitcoin’s Block Size Already ‘Too Big’
Attorneys Seek Bank Of Ireland Execs’ Testimony Against OneCoin Scammer (#GotBitcoin?)
OpenLibra Plans To Launch Permissionless Fork Of Facebook’s Stablecoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Tiny $217 Options Trade On Bitcoin Blockchain Could Be Wall Street’s Death Knell (#GotBitcoin?)
Class Action Accuses Tether And Bitfinex Of Market Manipulation (#GotBitcoin?)
Sharia Goldbugs: How ISIS Created A Currency For World Domination (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Eyes Demand As Hong Kong Protestors Announce Bank Run (#GotBitcoin?)
How To Securely Transfer Crypto To Your Heirs
‘Gold-Backed’ Crypto Token Promoter Karatbars Investigated By Florida Regulators (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto News From The Spanish-Speaking World (#GotBitcoin?)
Financial Services Giant Morningstar To Offer Ratings For Crypto Assets (#GotBitcoin?)
‘Gold-Backed’ Crypto Token Promoter Karatbars Investigated By Florida Regulators (#GotBitcoin?)
The Original Sins Of Cryptocurrencies (#GotBitcoin?)
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Israeli Startup That Allows Offline Crypto Transactions Secures $4M (#GotBitcoin?)
[PSA] Non-genuine Trezor One Devices Spotted (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Stronger Than Ever But No One Seems To Care: Google Trends (#GotBitcoin?)
First-Ever SEC-Qualified Token Offering In US Raises $23 Million (#GotBitcoin?)
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Wesley Snipes Is Launching A Tokenized $25 Million Movie Fund (#GotBitcoin?)
Mystery 94K BTC Transaction Becomes Richest Non-Exchange Address (#GotBitcoin?)
A Crypto Fix For A Broken International Monetary System (#GotBitcoin?)
Four Out Of Five Top Bitcoin QR Code Generators Are Scams: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Waves Platform And The Abyss To Jointly Launch Blockchain-Based Games Marketplace (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitmain Ramps Up Power And Efficiency With New Bitcoin Mining Machine (#GotBitcoin?)
Ledger Live Now Supports Over 1,250 Ethereum-Based ERC-20 Tokens (#GotBitcoin?)
Miss Finland: Bitcoin’s Risk Keeps Most Women Away From Cryptocurrency (#GotBitcoin?)
Artist Akon Loves BTC And Says, “It’s Controlled By The People” (#GotBitcoin?)
Ledger Live Now Supports Over 1,250 Ethereum-Based ERC-20 Tokens (#GotBitcoin?)
Co-Founder Of LinkedIn Presents Crypto Rap Video: Hamilton Vs. Satoshi (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Insurance Market To Grow, Lloyd’s Of London And Aon To Lead (#GotBitcoin?)
No ‘AltSeason’ Until Bitcoin Breaks $20K, Says Hedge Fund Manager (#GotBitcoin?)
NSA Working To Develop Quantum-Resistant Cryptocurrency: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Custody Provider Legacy Trust Launches Crypto Pension Plan (#GotBitcoin?)
Vaneck, SolidX To Offer Limited Bitcoin ETF For Institutions Via Exemption (#GotBitcoin?)
Russell Okung: From NFL Superstar To Bitcoin Educator In 2 Years (#GotBitcoin?)
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Blockchain-Based Fractional Ownership Used To Sell High-End Art (#GotBitcoin?)
Portugal Tax Authority: Bitcoin Trading And Payments Are Tax-Free (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin ‘Failed Safe Haven Test’ After 7% Drop, Peter Schiff Gloats (#GotBitcoin?)
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Bitcoin Realized Market Cap Hits $100 Billion For The First Time (#GotBitcoin?)
Stablecoins Begin To Look Beyond The Dollar (#GotBitcoin?)
Bank Of England Governor: Libra-Like Currency Could Replace US Dollar (#GotBitcoin?)
Binance Reveals ‘Venus’ — Its Own Project To Rival Facebook’s Libra (#GotBitcoin?)
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SEC Approves Blockchain Tech Startup Securitize To Record Stock Transfers (#GotBitcoin?)
SegWit Creator Introduces New Language For Bitcoin Smart Contracts (#GotBitcoin?)
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Bitcoin Price ‘Will Struggle’ In Big Financial Crisis, Says Investor (#GotBitcoin?)
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Just The Existence Of Bitcoin Impacts Monetary Policy (#GotBitcoin?)
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IRS To Cryptocurrency Owners: Come Clean, Or Else!
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Bakkt Announces September 23 Launch Of Futures And Custody
Coinbase CEO: Institutions Depositing $200-400M Into Crypto Per Week (#GotBitcoin?)
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Crypto Dusting Attack Affects Nearly 300,000 Addresses (#GotBitcoin?)
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15 Countries To Develop Crypto Transaction Tracking System: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
US Department Of Commerce Offering 6-Figure Salary To Crypto Expert (#GotBitcoin?)
Mastercard Is Building A Team To Develop Crypto, Wallet Projects (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Bitcoin Educator Scams The Scammer And Donates Proceeds (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon Wants To Build A Blockchain For Ads, New Job Listing Shows (#GotBitcoin?)
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Blockstream Launches Bitcoin Mining Farm With Fidelity As Early Customer (#GotBitcoin?)
Commerzbank Tests Blockchain Machine To Machine Payments With Daimler (#GotBitcoin?)
Man Takes Bitcoin Miner Seller To Tribunal Over Electricity Bill And Wins (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Computing Power Sets Record As Over 100K New Miners Go Online (#GotBitcoin?)
Walmart Coin And Libra Perform Major Public Relations For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Judge Says Buying Bitcoin Via Credit Card Not Necessarily A Cash Advance (#GotBitcoin?)
Poll: If You’re A Stockowner Or Crypto-Currency Holder. What Will You Do When The Recession Comes?
1 In 5 Crypto Holders Are Women, New Report Reveals (#GotBitcoin?)
Beating Bakkt, Ledgerx Is First To Launch ‘Physical’ Bitcoin Futures In Us (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook Warns Investors That Libra Stablecoin May Never Launch (#GotBitcoin?)
Government Money Printing Is ‘Rocket Fuel’ For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin-Friendly Square Cash App Stock Price Up 56% In 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Safeway Shoppers Can Now Get Bitcoin Back As Change At 894 US Stores (#GotBitcoin?)
TD Ameritrade CEO: There’s ‘Heightened Interest Again’ With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuela Sets New Bitcoin Volume Record Thanks To 10,000,000% Inflation (#GotBitcoin?)
Newegg Adds Bitcoin Payment Option To 73 More Countries (#GotBitcoin?)
China’s Schizophrenic Relationship With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
More Companies Build Products Around Crypto Hardware Wallets (#GotBitcoin?)
Bakkt Is Scheduled To Start Testing Its Bitcoin Futures Contracts Today (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Now 8 Times More Powerful Than It Was At $20K Price (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Exchange BitMEX Under Investigation By CFTC: Bloomberg (#GotBitcoin?)
“Bitcoin An ‘Unstoppable Force,” Says US Congressman At Crypto Hearing (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Is Moving $3 Billion Daily, Up 210% Since April (#GotBitcoin?)
Cryptocurrency Startups Get Partial Green Light From Washington
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Pullback Is Healthy, Fewer Searches Аre Good (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Lightning Nodes Are Snatching Funds From Bad Actors (#GotBitcoin?)
The Provident Bank Now Offers Deposit Services For Crypto-Related Entities (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Could Help Stop News Censorship From Space (#GotBitcoin?)
US Sanctions On Iran Crypto Mining — Inevitable Or Impossible? (#GotBitcoin?)
US Lawmaker Reintroduces ‘Safe Harbor’ Crypto Tax Bill In Congress (#GotBitcoin?)
EU Central Bank Won’t Add Bitcoin To Reserves — Says It’s Not A Currency (#GotBitcoin?)
The Miami Dolphins Now Accept Bitcoin And Litecoin Crypt-Currency Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Bashes Bitcoin And Alt-Right Is Mad As Hell (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sachs Ramps Up Development Of New Secret Crypto Project (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockchain And AI Bond, Explained (#GotBitcoin?)
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Outperformed Indexes In First Half Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
XRP Is The Worst Performing Major Crypto Of 2019 (GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Back Near $12K As BTC Shorters Lose $44 Million In One Morning (#GotBitcoin?)
As Deutsche Bank Axes 18K Jobs, Bitcoin Offers A ‘Plan ฿”: VanEck Exec (#GotBitcoin?)
Argentina Drives Global LocalBitcoins Volume To Highest Since November (#GotBitcoin?)
‘I Would Buy’ Bitcoin If Growth Continues — Investment Legend Mobius (#GotBitcoin?)
Lawmakers Push For New Bitcoin Rules (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook’s Libra Is Bad For African Americans (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Firm Charity Announces Alliance To Support Feminine Health (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Startup Wants To Upgrade Millions Of ATMs To Sell Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Says US ‘Should Match’ China’s Money Printing Game (#GotBitcoin?)
Casa Launches Lightning Node Mobile App For Bitcoin Newbies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Rally Fuels Market In Crypto Derivatives (#GotBitcoin?)
World’s First Zero-Fiat ‘Bitcoin Bond’ Now Available On Bloomberg Terminal (#GotBitcoin?)
Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable 98.2% Of The Days Since Creation (#GotBitcoin?)
Another Crypto Exchange Receives License For Crypto Futures
From ‘Ponzi’ To ‘We’re Working On It’ — BIS Chief Reverses Stance On Crypto (#GotBitcoin?)
These Are The Cities Googling ‘Bitcoin’ As Interest Hits 17-Month High (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuelan Explains How Bitcoin Saves His Family (#GotBitcoin?)
Quantum Computing Vs. Blockchain: Impact On Cryptography
This Fund Is Riding Bitcoin To Top (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Surge Leaves Smaller Digital Currencies In The Dust (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exchange Hits $1 Trillion In Trading Volume (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Breaks $200 Billion Market Cap For The First Time In 17 Months (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Make State Tax Payments In Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Religious Organizations Make Ideal Places To Mine Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sacs And JP Morgan Chase Finally Concede To Crypto-Currencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Heading For Fifth Month Of Gains Despite Price Correction (#GotBitcoin?)
Breez Reveals Lightning-Powered Bitcoin Payments App For IPhone (#GotBitcoin?)
Big Four Auditing Firm PwC Releases Cryptocurrency Auditing Software (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon-Owned Twitch Quietly Brings Back Bitcoin Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
JPMorgan Will Pilot ‘JPM Coin’ Stablecoin By End Of 2019: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Is There A Big Short In Bitcoin? (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase Hit With Outage As Bitcoin Price Drops $1.8K In 15 Minutes
Samourai Wallet Releases Privacy-Enhancing CoinJoin Feature (#GotBitcoin?)
There Are Now More Than 5,000 Bitcoin ATMs Around The World (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Get Bitcoin Rewards When Booking At Hotels.Com (#GotBitcoin?)
North America’s Largest Solar Bitcoin Mining Farm Coming To California (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin On Track For Best Second Quarter Price Gain On Record (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Hash Rate Climbs To New Record High Boosting Network Security (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exceeds 1Million Active Addresses While Coinbase Custodies $1.3B In Assets
Why Bitcoin’s Price Suddenly Surged Back $5K (#GotBitcoin?)
Zebpay Becomes First Exchange To Add Lightning Payments For All Users (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase’s New Customer Incentive: Interest Payments, With A Crypto Twist (#GotBitcoin?)
The Best Bitcoin Debit (Cashback) Cards Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Real Estate Brokerages Now Accepting Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Ernst & Young Introduces Tax Tool For Reporting Cryptocurrencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Recession Is Looming, or Not. Here’s How To Know (#GotBitcoin?)
How Will Bitcoin Behave During A Recession? (#GotBitcoin?)
Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year (#GotBitcoin?)
Definite Signs of An Imminent Recession (#GotBitcoin?)
What A Recession Could Mean for Women’s Unemployment (#GotBitcoin?)
Investors Run Out of Options As Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds, Oil Cave To Recession Fears (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Is Looking To Reduce “Marcus” Lending Goal On Credit (Recession) Caution (#GotBitcoin?)
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