Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Pullback Is Healthy, Fewer Searches Аre Good (#GotBitcoin?)
Fundstrat Global Advisers co-founder Thomas Lee wrote that the recent Bitcoin (BTC) pullback is healthy in a tweet on July 14. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Pullback Is Healthy, Fewer Searches Аre Good (#GotBitcoin?)
In his tweet, Lee also addressed concerns over the recent decrease in Google searches for Bitcoin:
“As for the search traffic for bitcoin being low, I also think that is a good sign. It means the rise in Bitcoin has not been accompanied by massive hype.”
According to search analytics service Google Trends, Google searches for Bitcoin from within the United States have decreased by about 45% since their recent peak at the end of June.
The CEO of major cryptocurrency exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao, said in an interview with Bloomberg on July 12 that the recent rally has been mostly driven by retail investors, who still account for about 60% of total trading volume. Zhao said:
“We have not seen institutions growing faster. […] What we’ve seen is pickup in both places. The number of institutions coming into this industry has not increased that tremendously in 2019 yet.”
Bloomberg also suggests that margin trading is another catalyst for the recent growth. As Cointelegraph reported on July 11, Binance has rolled out margin trading features, allowing traders to use their existing balances as collateral to open both long and short positions on crypto assets. Zhao commented:
“I would say the majority of people by the end of the year will be using margin in some capacity. […] It’s quite safe to use to be honest. There will be more trading volume and potentially higher volatility.”
At the end of June, Thomas Lee suggested that Bitcoin’s volatility makes a long-term approach toward it more appropriate for most trade.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Reminds Us of Bitcoin’s ‘Ten Best Days’ Rule
Fundstrat co-founder Thomas Lee tweeted a timely reminder against panic-selling on Sept. 28, reminding that the majority of Bitcoin (BTC) gains come in the ten best trading days of the year. In fact, excluding these ten best days, BTC is down 25% per year.
Fundstrat’s ‘Rule Of 10 Best Days’
In any given year, the vast majority of gains in Bitcoin price come in just the ten biggest trading days, according to this rule. During the last bull market of 2017, price rose an incredible 1,136% in those ten days. But even during the bear market of 2018, the best ten days saw an overall gain of 66%.
However, exclusion of these days tells a very different story. In most years since 2013, those 355/6 days have seen mainly quite considerable losses.
Whilst 2017 did see gains of impressive 232%, 2018 suffered a loss of 140%. Similarly, 2013 and 2014 have seen losses of 199% and 133% respectively.
In fact, since 2013, excluding those ten best days, Bitcoin has seen annual losses averaging 25%.
“Are You That Good At Trading?”
Lee cautions against making emotional trading decisions by asking “Are u that good at trading?”
The implication that holding is a better strategy than trading is clear. However, Lee also alludes to thoughts that crypto winter may be back, suggesting that even in bull markets, there will be a large number of heavy loss days.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around the $8000 mark. This represents an approximate 110% gain for the year to date.
As Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 20, Tom Lee said that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency will gain trust from the launch of institutional trading platform Bakkt.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin
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