Bloomberg: Americans Trade Depreciating Dollars For Bitcoin
Low-yielding dollar savings accounts aren’t cutting it for Americans anymore. Bloomberg: Americans Trade Depreciating Dollars For Bitcoin
A Bloomberg article claims that Americans are foregoing the safety of the dollar for more speculative assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC).
High Saving Rates, Low Yields
Because of the COVID-19 lockdown, the personal savings rate in the U.S. is at a historic high. The yield offered by the financial institutions on savings accounts, however, is close to zero. At the same time, assets as Bitcoin, equities, and gold, all have made double-digit gains since March. This is making them an attractive option for investors.
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Race To The Bottom
The article mentions a 28 year-old Californian, who told the reporter that he is going to convert his $15,000 savings held in a high-yield savings account at Ally Bank into Bitcoin. He says that he is doing so because he expects long-term economic stagnation.
The reality is even worse than what the Bloomberg article posits. It is no secret that the dollar is rapidly depreciating against other leading fiat currencies. In fact, according to the Financial Times, July is the dollar’s worst month in a decade.
With another round of stimulus checks around the corner and most of the nation still affected by COVID-19 restrictions, it is possible that this problem will only get worse. Americans may likely have more depreciating fiat on their hands in the short term, and could seek to convert their holdings into higher-yielding assets. However, there is no such thing as a free lunch. In the investment world, high-return comes with high-risk.
‘High Probability’ Bitcoin Rises As USD Sinks To 2008 Levels, Says CEO
The U.S. dollar is at risk of falling below the lower end of a 12-year trendline as some analysts argue that this may be a bullish turning point for Bitcoin’s price.
The United States dollar index is currently testing the bottom of a 12-year trendline. But some traders are calling it the “most pivotal moment” for the global reserve currency since 2008, as they believe that continuous depreciation will likely boost the price of Bitcoin (BTC).
For over three months since April, the dollar has declined against other reserve currencies. Some investors believe that the fall in the value of the dollar has affected the price of Bitcoin. Prominent cryptocurrency trader Scott Melker said:
“This is arguably the most pivotal moment we have seen for the United States Dollar since it bottomed in 2008. This channel has been intact for over 10 years. If it breaks down, hide yo’ kids and buy a metric ton of Bitcoin.”
Why The U.S. Dollar Could Have An Impact On Bitcoin
In recent weeks, as BTC rose to as high as $12,000, investors pointed at the declining dollar. Jay Hao, CEO of OKEx, said a depreciating dollar raises the chances of a BTC rally.
The value of the dollar affects Bitcoin because traders typically price BTC against it. When the dollar depreciates, the asset that BTC is trading against is lower in value. Hence, when the dollar drops, it might increase the likelihood of BTC upside. Hao said:
“If the dollar continues to depreciate, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to rise.”
Mark Wilcox, a Bitcoin analyst, raised a similar point. He pinpointed the biggest monthly drop of the dollar as the driving factor of BTC in the past several months.
Wilcox explained that rather than Bitcoin increasing in value, it is the dollar that actually declined in price. He said, “bitcoin didn’t go up, the dollar went down,” referring to the U.S. dollar index.
Analysts say the dollar has been declining relative to other reserve currencies due to the slowing U.S. economy. The U.S. has the highest number of coronavirus cases, which is causing the rate of economic growth to slow down.
“The thing that’s changed in the last few days is that it’s not just gold which has gone up against the dollar, but almost everything,” explained Société Générale’s global macro strategist Kit Juckes in a note. “That’s partly driven by a sense that the U.S. is having a harder time controlling the virus than others, which will see the U.S. economy underperform.”
Higher Chances Of A BTC Uptrend
Traders are seemingly cautiously optimistic about the near-term trend of Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin trading activity is reaching new highs in various markets, including institutional venues such as the CME and its BTC futures contracts.
In recent weeks, the open interest of the CME Bitcoin futures market has risen to an all-time high. It indicates higher activity from accredited and institutional investors. The rising appetite for BTC coincides with a falling dollar, which could further improve the sentiment around Bitcoin.
One Pseudonymous Trader Said:
“Even big American banks are beginning to have doubts about the US dollar’s status as world reserve currency. If Satoshi was still around, he would have a grin on his face. The landscape literally couldn’t be better for Bitcoin.”
The confluence of an unstable dollar and the rapidly increasing demand for gold could both fuel the momentum of BTC in the short term.
Wall Street veteran Max Keiser, for example, predicted last week that Bitcoin is destined to continue beyond its all-time highs this year, possibly hitting as high as $28,000 before seeing a market correction.
Bitcoin Will Get Stronger After Crisis, Says US Congressman Emmer
United States Representative Tom Emmer is confident about the bright future of Bitcoin and blockchain technology.
The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is not going away once the ongoing financial crisis subsides, United States Representative Tom Emmer (R-MN) believes.
A known industry advocate, Emmer says that Bitcoin will only be getting stronger after the world eventually emerges from the economic chaos caused by the coronavirus.
Bitcoin And Blockchain Will Continue To Become More Important
“As we come out of the crisis, Bitcoin ain’t going away, it’s gonna get stronger,” the Congressman saod during an Aug. 3 interview with co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano.
According to Emmer, both Bitcoin and its underlying technology of blockchain will “continue to become more and more important” and see further advancements due to its unprecedented value. “You just watch, it has value, when something has value, people are going to take risks and it’s going to advance,” the politician said.
U.S. Banks Are Now Officially Authorized To Custody Bitcoin
According to Emmer, Bitcoin’s future is now even more promising after U.S. regulators authorized banks to provide custody for cryptocurrencies last week.
As reported, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency officially approved federally chartered banks to store crypto like Bitcoin on July 22. According to Emmer, Brian Brooks, Acting Comptroller of the Currency at the OCC, made a significant contribution to the future of Bitcoin:
“And now Brian Brooks is saying ‘Hey, institutions, you can start banking this stuff. You can provide a home for it, you can start working with it.’”
Representative Emmer is known for advocating cryptocurrency-powered innovation. Earlier this year, he expressed concerns about regulation smothering innovation. Previously, the Congressman has called on the government to provide more regulatory clarity for the crypto industry.
Emmer is not alone in thinking that Bitcoin will become even more solid once markets start to recover. In March 2020, billionaire investor and blockchain tech supporter Tim Draper predicted that Bitcoin will be one of the most crucial tools for recovering from the global financial crisis. “When the world comes back, it will be Bitcoin, not banks and governments that save the day,” Draper said.
Bloomberg: Bitcoin Is Stabilizing At 6X The Price Of Gold
Bloomberg suggests that the price of Bitcoin is stabilizing at six times the price of gold, yet it contends that the asset is still undervalued.
In its crypto outlook for August, Bloomberg contends that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is stabilizing at six times the price of an ounce of gold. This speculation came shortly after the correlation between the two assets reached an all-time high.
If The Trend Continues, Bitcoin May Go To $18K
Bloomberg has professed for some time now that Bitcoin is on the verge of becoming digital gold. This is due to the asset’s inherently similar qualities, such as a limited supply and a low growth rate. The company is now taking its hypothesis a step further by claiming that there is a price ratio relationship between the assets:
“Stabilizing at about 6x the per-ounce price of gold, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation and declining volatility relative to the precious metal indicate an enduring relationship for price advancement, in our view. Unparalleled global central-bank easing should remain a tailwind for the quasi-currencies.”
It is unclear why there would be a mathematical relationship between the prices of these two assets at present. However, if this relationship persists into the future, the price of Bitcoin may appreciate to $18,000. To this effect, Bloomberg sees “the potential upside in spot gold toward $3,000 an ounce”.
Bitcoin Is Undervalued According To A Key On-Chain Metric
Bloomberg also believes there is an on-chain indicator which backs up the idea that Bitcoin is currently undervalued:
“The 30-day average of addresses from Coinmetrics on Aug. 4 translated to a Bitcoin price above $14,000, vs. about $11,000 on an auto-scale basis since 2017.”
The report points to the continued expansion of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust Fund, or GBTC, as a significant factor in diminishing Bitcoin’s available supply “GBTC inflows over the past year have absorbed about a third of new Bitcoin supply. If the inflow pace doesn’t subside, absorption will approach 50%, with less supply.”
Bloomberg says that something unexpected would need to happen to prevent Bitcoin’s advance in the face of prevailing “zero and negative interest rates”.
Bitcoin Will Continue Appreciating, Although At A Slower Pace Than In The Past, Bloomberg Analyst Explains
According to senior commodity strategist at Bloomberrg Mike McGlone, Bitcoin’s limited supply and increasing adoption will lead to steady, although gradual, appreciation.
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, is convinced Bitcoin will continue to appreciate thanks to its fixed supply coupled with increasing demand.
“I don’t see what [could] make it stop doing what [it’s] been doing for the last 10 years. And that’s going up”, he told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.
McGlone sees Bitcoin’s capped supply as the main feature. He said that this potentially makes it a better store of value than gold, the total amount of which is unknown.
Given the fixed supply, Bitcoin is going to appreciate as demand for it increases. McGlone points at the growing number of active Bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of Bitcoin into regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the increasing demand for Bitcoin.
Lastly, Bitcoin’s decreasing volatility compared to the Nasdaq index is another indicator pointing at the growing maturity of Bitcoin as an asset class.
When asked about Pantera Capital price prediction, according to which Bitcoin may reach $115,000 in one year from now, McGlone remains skeptical. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is too mature for this kind of massive rally to happen in such a short time.
“Bitcoin 10x? Maybe over 10 years, that makes a lot of sense”, he said.
Check out the full interview on our Youtube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!
Bloomberg: Biden Election Would Be Good For Bitcoin, Bad For DeFi
Biden’s administration may not have the same “hands-off” approach to crypto regulation, contends Bloomberg.
The latest Bloomberg crypto newsletter contends that the election of Joe Biden would bring greater mainstream adoption of Bitcoin (BTC), including a potential ETF approval. Further, it referred to the Trump administration’s policies with regard to crypto as “hands-off”:
“A potential Joe Biden presidency should shine favor on further appreciation in the price of Bitcoin, in our view. New leadership may change the hands-off policy of the Trump administration — to the detriment of the broader crypto market — and nudge the firstborn benchmark toward the mainstream, improving chances for an ETF.”
Considering that yesterday, the Department of Justice published a 70-page Cryptocurrency: An Enforcement Framework, the newsletter likely was written prior to that.
The author purports that the same forces would hamper DeFi’s growth. Both conclusions are based on the assumption that a “Democratic sweep” would potentially enable greater regulatory clarity for the crypto space.
The DeFi space has exploded this year in a completely unregulated environment. It is no coincidence that the perpetrators behind the KuCoin hack have been laundering their illicit proceeds through the biggest decentralized exchange, Uniswap.
Bloomberg asserts that regardless of the election’s outcome, “Bitcoin’s price will keep going up no matter who’s elected president, but at a moderating pace”. It also concludes that if Bitcoin’s price continues to grow during the next presidential term at even half of the pace it enjoyed from 2016 to 2020, it would reach $80,000 by 2024:
“Seemingly unstoppable trends in U.S. debt-to-GDP, quantitative easing (QE) and the increasing Bitcoin hash rate indicate a crypto price more likely to keep advancing during the next presidential administration, in our view. About half the 1,400% gain since the 2016 vote would get the Bitcoin price toward $80,000 in 2024.”
Yesterday, Square made an announcement that it acquired $50 million worth of Bitcoin, signifying the increased adoption of the asset by the corporate sector.
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