Crypto Mining Supply Fails To Meet Market Demand In Q2: TokenInsight
The supply of crypto mining machines failed to meet market demand in Q2 2019 despite the surge of mining hardware prices, new research says. Crypto Mining Supply Fails To Meet Market Demand In Q2: TokenInsight
Popular Suppliers Ran Out Of Stock In Q2
Bitcoin (BTC) miner market saw significant inflation during Q2 2019, with the majority of miners from various suppliers experiencing shortages, according to Q2 2019 cryptocurrency mining industry report by crypto analytics firm TokenInsight.
In the report, released on Sept. 13, the San Francisco-based crypto data supplier wrote that the mining equipment market still performed quite well in Q2 as some popular mining hardware like Antminer S17 were out of stock during the period. According to TokenInsight, those machines are now being sold by manufacturers in the form of future deliverables, which will be delivered in October and November 2019.
Cloud Mining Gaining Momentum
However, the mining market reportedly saw a notable surge in the supply of cloud mining — a type of mining that does not require buying mining machines by providing a platform that directly packages and manages the links of mining hardware purchase, logistics, power supply and others. According to TokenInsight, Bitdeer and VeryHash were the two major suppliers of Bitcoin cloud mining hardware in Q2, as in the previous season.
Mining Difficulty Expectations
According to the report, the overall difficulty of the Bitcoin network is expected to increase by 48-72% in the second half of 2019. The term of mining difficulty means a value used to show how difficult it is to find a hash that will be lower than the target defined by system. As such, the expected increase in mining difficulty will undermine revenue for a section of mining operators with currently operating machines, TokenInsight noted.
Long term, the ratio of price to mining difficulty is likely to decrease over a one-year period from Aug. 14, 2019 to Aug. 14, 2020, TokenInsight wrote, pointing out the 95% confidence interval of Bitcoin price in 2020 ranging from $17,077 and $23,276.
On Sept. 10, crypto analyst PlanB suggested that Bitcoin price should hit $30,000 during its current price cycle, based on mining difficulty indicators’ model.
New Mining Difficulty Metric Points To $31K Bitcoin Price By 2021
Bitcoin (BTC) price should hit $30,000 during its current price cycle, new data based on mining difficulty suggests.
Published by well-known analyst PlanB on Sept. 10, the statistics combine Bitcoin price as a percentage of difficulty lows, along with the number of blocks since the last low.
The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to find a hash below a given target. Simply put, it measures the complexity of the equations miners must solve in order to validate blocks of Bitcoin transactions.
It can act as a measure of how much competition there is among Bitcoin miners to find the next block, as the higher the competition, the more incentive for the difficulty to increase.
Bitcoin To Hit $31,000 If The Trend Continues
According to PlanB, Bitcoin has seen several difficulty cycles in its history, each time price rising an order of magnitude less relative to the last difficulty low.
The stabilization means that in late 2013, Bitcoin’s price high of $1,300 represented a 50,000% increase versus the last difficulty low. In late 2017 meanwhile, its rise to $20,000 was a jump of around 9,000%.
No Price Action Yet
According to the model, the next peak will be lower still -— at around 1,000% or roughly $31,000 by 2021. When difficulty last hit a floor in December 2018, BTC/USD traded at $3,100.
“Wee baby bull market,” fellow Bitcoin social media personality Parabolic Trav commented on the findings.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin’s technical prowess has become increasingly at odds with its price. While aspects such as hash rate keep hitting record highs, the price has stayed sideways, failing to capitalize on a bull market which began in earnest in April.
Russia: Government Official Expects To Mine 20% Of The World’s Bitcoin
A Bitcoin mining company owned by Russia’s internet ombudsman is planning to open a new facility and corner 20% of the international market.
Internet Ombudsman Targets BTC
As local financial news outlet RBC reported on Oct. 29, Russian Mining Company (RMC) plans to repurpose a metal factory in the country’s northern province of Karelia.
Closed due to US sanctions in 2018, the ex-Rusal facility could soon host a Bitcoin (BTC) mining farm so large it could account for one-fifth of global output.
“Our idea consists of converting the factory and selling its computer power as a service, that is to say, offering IT services,” the ombudsman, CEO Dmitry Marinichev, told RBC.
Marinichev steered RBC through a $43 million initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017, a sale that remains Russia’s largest.
World Returns To Bitcoin Mining
Despite his links to the Russian government, Marinichev has come out critical of some policy, particularly aspects involving the internet.
The Kremlin’s attempt to block instant messaging service Telegram, for example, earned scorn. Efforts have so far been in vain, as Telegram still remains accessible, while efforts could soon shift to the release of the company’s own digital currency.
“It is impossible to block it by blacklisting IP-addresses. That way, the battle will go on endlessly, even if you consider that Telegram’s client part is open-source software whose inner workings can be analysed and comprehended,” he said in an interview in May last year.
As Cointelegraph reported, competition in Bitcoin mining has heated up once again in 2019. Despite the mixed performance of Bitcoin itself, hash rate – or the combined computing power dedicated to mining – continues to hit all-time highs.
Bitmain, one of the industry’s major mining participants, last week announced it would look to make its new facility in Texas the most powerful worldwide in the coming years.
Competitor Canaan Creative meanwhile filed for a $400 million initial public offering, or IPO, this week.
UK Bitcoin Miner Eyes 240% Capacity Boost With New $10M Hardware Order
United Kingdom-based mining firm Argo Blockchain has doubled its order of new cryptocurrency miners as it eyes “significant expansion” of its capacities.
An Oct. 30 report from Proactive Investors revealed that the firm — which is listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange — is poised to increase its current hash power by 240%.
Poised For 17,000 Miners In Operation
In lieu of a prior order for 5,000 new Antminer S17s at a cost of $13.09 million, Argo Blockchain has reportedly now placed an order for 10,000 Antminer T17s — at a cost of $9.51 million.
The firm’s original $6.5 million down payment will be carried through for the new order, the company indicated, with the remaining $3 million to be provided from Argo’s cash reserves.
With the new delivery expected in early December, the firm will have a total of 17,000 Bitcoin (BTC) mining machines in operation.
Argo executive chairman Mike Edwards said the new order represented a “significant expansion” of mining infrastructure, noting that the choice to switch to T17s will seal a major increase in output for the firm.
He took a bullish line on the company’s health and the wider crypto markets, stating:
“Our strong balance sheet and cash flow means we can continue to invest to take advantage of favourable industry conditions and position Argo for long-term growth and value creation.”
As previously reported, Argo Blockchain added 1,000 fresh miners back in September. Reports had moreover circulated in August pointing to the company’s closure of a deal to increase its electricity supply by 357%.
Cointelegraph’s report at the time indicated the firm may have already then been poised to become the world’s largest publicly-listed miner.
Over the past six months, the company’s stock price increased by 137% from £3.25 ($4.06) to £7.70 ($11.85) per share, according to Google Finance.
Bitmain launched its upgraded Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) T17+ mining machines at the World Digital Mining Summit this October, promising increased power efficiency and hash rate.
Bitmain has itself meanwhile renewed its bid for a public listing, with fresh reports alleging it has recently filed for an Initial Public Offering with the United States Securities and Commission.
China: Veteran Regulator Tells Sichuan to Tap Hydropower For Blockchain
A veteran Chinese regulator has told those tasked with steering the strategic development of Sichuan province to tap surplus hydropower for the blockchain industry.
Jiang Yang — Former Vice-Chairman Of The China Securities Regulatory Commission — Advised Strategists That:
“Sichuan should study further about how the province’s cheap hydropower resources can attract digital currency-related businesses.”
Yang’s remarks were noted in an Oct. 30 report from South China Morning Post.
Use Cryptocurrency Mining To Absorb Excess Output
Sichuan, located in south-western China, has a protracted rainy season and is thus the country’s biggest producer of hydropower.
In 2018 alone, the province generated 78.2 gigawatts — that’s 78.2 million kilowatts — of power and exported 104 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), 30% of its total output, to other regions.
With this abundant resource, Sichuan’s electricity tariffs are reportedly as low as 2 US cents per kWh during the rainy season — as compared with the 11 US cent rate reported in Guangzhou and Beijing.
Even outside of the season, costs remain at a modest 4 US cents per kWh — a major draw for cryptocurrency miners, for whom electricity consumption commands the lion’s share of operating costs.
Most crucially, cryptocurrency mining is thought to have the potential to help absorb excess energy output, which reportedly remains a missed export opportunity for hydropower plants lacking in infrastructure. This could significantly boost the local economy, SCMP notes.
Calls For A Breakthrough In Blockchain Finance
Jiang told strategists that China continues to mine 70% of the world’s Bitcoin (BTC), followed by India (4%) and the United States (1%), citing cheap hydropower as a major driving factor.
He called for China to seek a breakthrough in the application of blockchain to finance, noting that:
“In finance, the application of blockchain technology has been through digital currency, which today is primarily driven by Bitcoin.”
Leon Liu — CEO of retail crypto trading platform Bitkan — told reporters that since President Xi’s high-profile endorsement of blockchain development last week, the volume of Bitcoin traded on the platform has surged by four times.
Increased mining is also expected to trigger a major uptick in Bitcoin trading volumes, as miners cash out their rewards to pay for operating costs.
This could represent a fraught issue for China’s main macroeconomic planning agency, the National Development Reform Commission, which has endeavored to clamp down on Bitcoin mining.
China has, moreover, banned all domestic crypto exchanges since Sept. 2017, meaning that this trading is likely to occur on offshore platforms.
Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that the People’s Bank of China and the country’s market regulator will jointly implement a new system to certify 11 types of fintech hardware and software products relating to digital payments.
Bitcoin Just Hit $1 Billion in All-Time Transaction Fees
On Oct. 30, 2019, the bitcoin blockchain reached $1 billion in cumulative transaction fees.
“This milestone is a really cool milestone just because it shows how much people value block space,” said Bryan Aulds, founder of bitcoin wallet Billfodl. “And that it’s something people don’t mind paying for, which I think is really important moving forward.”
According to data from blockchain analytics startup BlockChair, the amount of bitcoin transaction fees collected annually has actually decreased in recent years. This is due to the advent of scaling solutions on bitcoin including “Segregated Witness” and the Lightning Network.
And while the cumulative amount of bitcoin transaction fees converted to USD amounts to roughly $1 billion, the amount is actually much larger if you consider the market value of bitcoin today. According to Coin Metrics data, 204808.3479 BTC has been doled out in transaction fees to miners since 2009. At today’s price, that’s equivalent to $1.86 billion.
The cumulative size of transaction fees on the bitcoin network is only set to grow larger in the coming years – especially as alternative mechanisms for rewarding miners such as block subsidies gradually decline.
“Over the long run, the transaction fees will eventually have to replace the block [subsidy],” said Jameson Lopp, CTO of bitcoin management startup Casa. “There’s a reason why it’s called the block subsidy in the code. It’s because it is subsidizing the security of the network,” adding:
“The understanding all along is that this subsidy via inflation will have to be replaced by the people who are paying to use the network via transaction fees.”
Securing The Bitcoin Network
Stepping back, transaction fees play three key roles on the bitcoin blockchain – all of which serve to secure the integrity and censorship-resistance of the network.
First, attaching fees to bitcoin transactions discourages denial of service attacks, also called “spam” attacks, from slowing down the network.
“When you create a transaction, you’re able to use bandwidth and write data onto the hard drive of anyone running a node on the network,” said Lopp. “If there’s no cost to doing that then you can saturate everyone’s bandwidth and fill up everyone’s hard drive.”
Second, fees serve to prioritize which transactions get confirmed and written onto blocks faster than others.
David Steinberg, VP Of Crypto Mining Consultancy Navier, Said:
“It’s very simple: you pay more, you get your transaction accepted more quickly. So that mechanism is a fair way to participate in a pending transaction pool.”
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, transaction fees also ensure transaction finality. Coupled with the bitcoin block subsidy – which yields 12.5 BTC per block and decreases by 50 percent every four years – transaction fees incentivize bitcoin miners from purposefully stalling or editing the blockchain.
Without this monetary incentive, miners could easily be bribed by malicious actors to unfairly withhold all or certain transactions from being committed to the blockchain.
“In aggregate, the transaction fees plus the block subsidy provide for the probabilistic transaction finality of the bitcoin system,” said Pierre Rochard, founder of consultancy startup Bitcoin Advisory, adding:
“The greater this finality is, the less time transactors have to wait before having confidence that the transaction will not be censored or double-spent.”
“We have another 10 to 13 years of decent subsidies left before it drops away to pretty negligible amounts,” said Billfodl’s Auld.
When this happens, miners will have to start adjusting profitability measures around the comparatively more volatile values of transaction fees as opposed to block subsidies.
“You have to start thinking more about the game theory around miner profitability and what would happen if the profitability of a miner becomes a lot more volatile from hour to hour, day to day,” said Lopp. “For example, we already know there are both daily and weekly cycles of demand for block space.”
The Dangers of Mining Pools: Centralization and Security Issues
The larger percentage of cryptocurrency enthusiasts that turn to mining pools, all the more dangerous this kind of mining is likely to become. The reason is simple: The potential rewards grow in correspondence with the number of participants and their hash power, and so too does the incentive to profit from it in less-than-legal or acceptable ways for some parties.
Why Mine Together?
In cryptocurrency mining — just like with real-life gold mining — the days of lone-wolf gold diggers drifting from place to place with their trusty tools in tow, following the trail of the elusive gold seams are long gone. While it is true that some of us can still afford to mine solo, it’s not a viable option for most people, as they do not have enough hashing power on their own to mine blocks consistently.
The infrequency of actually finding a block these days when mining individually is what makes mining pools so tempting for many people. In sharing their resources with other miners, they are able to make the returns steadier and more predictable.
The mining difficulty is only going to increase in the future if more people get into crypto — and they most likely will.
Of course, the utility of entering a mining pool is somewhat undermined (see what I did there?) by several factors. First of all, due to the fact that mining resources and power are shared, so too must be the rewards. Every member of the pool gets reimbursed according to their computing power — that’s only fair. Additionally, however, each participant has to pay a fee to the people behind the creation of the pool.
So far so good. Mining pools are definitely not a bad thing in and of itself. But how can they be exploited or otherwise threatened?
Why Centralization Is Unhealthy
Centralization is a bane to everything cryptocurrencies stand for. The initial vision of the crypto environment was one of equality, but the current state paints quite a different picture. Today, it is rife with competition, and often enough, this competition is unfair and dirty.
Centralization is the natural outcome of the competition in gaining crypto. Since crypto mining is now a full-fledged industry, it is being usurped by those with more resources and more hashing power. They are now firmly in charge, and that’s unlikely to change.
This problem being a growing concern in the crypto world was confirmed by Marco Streng, CEO of Genesis Mining, who underlined that the levels of centralization are “quite alarming.”
A common spooky tale about centralization is, of course, 51% attacks. They occur when a miner possesses more than half of the network’s hashrate, allowing them to make proof-of-work consensus their tool. This can lead to bad actors enabling double spending — that is, having their coin and spending it at the same time.
If there is one good thing about 51% attacks, it’s how unlikely they are. The cost of securing more than 50% of the network’s hash power is very high, and the more people join the network, the higher that cost gets.
For an individual or a group of miners, such an attack would not be cost-efficient, if not impossible, to carry out. So, unless a state is involved, 51% attacks remain more of a boogeyman than a real threat to larger networks.
Mining centralization also happens based on the location of the pool. As the profitability of the mining operation is highly dependent on electricity costs, it is natural that miners are drawn to regions where such costs are lower. In China, for example, the average household electricity price is at $0.08 per kWh, which is $0.07 lower than in the United States.
Here is what’s scary, though: As of last year,74% of Bitcoin’s hashing power has been distributed across five mining pools located in China. As we all know, China isn’t the freest state on the planet, and the level of governmental involvement in pretty much all spheres of life is quite high there. Despite not being in direct control of this power, the Chinese authorities can absolutely influence the managers of those pools.
So, is China going to perform attacks to spend those coins twice? Not likely. However, it is certainly possible that it could disrupt the functioning of the network, weaken the consensus, and influence economies of other countries that rely on Bitcoin.
Unfortunately, given the relations that China has with the rest of the world — specifically Western powers — such attacks are likely to happen sometime in the future if the situation doesn’t change.
Other Security Issues
Don’t listen to anyone who tells you that Bitcoin is a completely anonymous currency. It isn’t. A user’sIP address can still be connected to their transactions.
With so many major pools located in China — a state notorious for its surveillance practices — miners should be concerned about thedangers of the exposure of their IPs. This especially concerns Chinese citizens and other people who live in China.
The greatest danger for them is the possibility of de-anonymization. If China decides to double down on its cryptocurrency regulations, those of its citizens who have participated in Bitcoin transactions could face legal problems.
Centralization, though a seemingly natural process fueled by competition, has led to Bitcoin
straying far from what it was supposed to be. With most of the large mining pools situated under Chinese influence thanks to the country’s lower energy prices, there is a very real possibility of many things going wrong.
The worst thing for regular miners is that there’s little they can do about it. Unless their governments take serious steps to better their relations with China, and unless China is willing to improve its relations with other countries, this situation will not be resolved.
Avalon Bitcoin Miner Maker Canaan Posts $13 Million Q3 Profit In New Filing
Canaan Creative, the world’s second-largest bitcoin miner maker, has made 94 million yuan, or about $13 million, in net profit for Q3 2019, following bitcoin price’s bull run since April this year.
The company revealed in an updated filing of its initial public offering (IPO) application in the US on Wednesday that it has been able to bring home a profit of $13 million on a revenue of 670 million yuan, or $95 million, which records a 40 percent growth over the same period last year.
That would give the company a total net loss of $31.2 million on a revenue of $132 million for nine months ending in September this year, as the firm recorded a net loss $45.8 million for the first half of 2019.
Canaan officially filed for an IPO in the U.S. last month as its third attempt to go public after its first two applications in mainland China and Hong Kong, respectively, fell through.
Bitcoin’s price jump since earlier this year has boosted the sales of Canaan’s Avalon miners, which resulted in the market’s demand outstripping the firm’s supply.
According to the latest filing, Canaan’s main sales volume for 2019 so far comes from its older Avalon 8 series products with 265,756 units sold, whereas its most latest A9 and A10 models recorded a sales volume of 88,034 and 56,556 units, respectively.
All in all, Canaan said in the filing that for the first nine months in 2019, it has sold a total computing power of 7.59 exhashes per second, which accounts for roughly eight percent of bitcoin’s current network hash rate.
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Zebpay Becomes First Exchange To Add Lightning Payments For All Users (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase’s New Customer Incentive: Interest Payments, With A Crypto Twist (#GotBitcoin?)
The Best Bitcoin Debit (Cashback) Cards Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Real Estate Brokerages Now Accepting Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Ernst & Young Introduces Tax Tool For Reporting Cryptocurrencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Recession Is Looming, or Not. Here’s How To Know (#GotBitcoin?)
How Will Bitcoin Behave During A Recession? (#GotBitcoin?)
Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year (#GotBitcoin?)
Definite Signs of An Imminent Recession (#GotBitcoin?)
What A Recession Could Mean for Women’s Unemployment (#GotBitcoin?)
Investors Run Out of Options As Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds, Oil Cave To Recession Fears (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Is Looking To Reduce “Marcus” Lending Goal On Credit (Recession) Caution (#GotBitcoin?)
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