Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable 98.2% of The Days Since Creation (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin (BTC) has been profitable as an investment 98.2% of the days since its creation, data from holdcalc.com as of July 1 indicates. Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable 98.2% of The Days Since Creation (#GotBitcoin?)
Counting 3830 days back — to January 4, 2009, one day after the coin’s Genesis Block was hashed — holdcalc’s data suggests that on 3671 of these, it was profitable to buy bitcoin (BTC) as an investor.
That leaves 69 unprofitable days — which include virtually all days during December 2017, at the apex of bitcoin’s historic bull run to $20,000 — as well as almost all of January 2018.
The most recent cluster of unprofitable days recorded in hodlcalc’s data are during the end of last month — between 25 and 29 June 2019 — when the coin was trading between the $11,170 and $12,907 price points.
Parallel to holdcalc’s rolling statistics, a cryptocurrency market analysis published by twitter handle CL on June 24 suggests that bitcoin has entered the so-called “stealth phase” of its renewed bull run.
The study opens by noting that the top coin has now crossed both its 50-week and 50-day moving averages, and goes on to analyze bitcoin’s realized value — a metric reportedly first proposed by a Coin Metrics researcher. Realized value, the study outlines, is the weighted UTXO market cap for BTC — i.e. a measure of the value of all coins in circulation at the price they were last transacted.
In addition to bullish technicals, on-chain data such as bitcoin’s hash rate, active wallet addresses and transactions per day are all surpassing all time highs or otherwise close to doing so, the study claims — all of which are metrics that numerous cited studies have purportedly been shown to have a positive correlation with price performance.
To argue the case that the coin is now in its stealth phase, the analysts provide a chart showing the logarithmic growth of bitcoin’s price and public interest — comparing BTC:USD data with Google Trends results for “bitcoin.”
The study argues that the public has, by and large, failed to take stock of the current price ascent, given that there are as many “google searches for “Bitcoin” today at over $10,000 as in 2013 when Bitcoin was only at $1,000.”
As reported earlier, crypto twitter investor and strategist CryptoKea has today argued — against the bull run narrative — that bitcoin’s most likely retracement range is $6,600-$8,000, while others have proposed more moderate estimates of circa $9,500.
To press time, bitcoin is circling the $11,000 mark, down just over 6% on the day, according to Cointelegraph’s bitcoin price index.
New Analysis: Every Bitcoin Holder Makes a Profit After 1,335 Days
According to new analysis, presented Sept. 8, the amount of time it is necessary to have held Bitcoin to make a profit is 1,335 days or roughly 3 years and 8 months. This roughly correlates to the four-year cycle length based on reward halving periods.
Profiting From Bitcoin Is Largely A Waiting Game
While a 100% sure profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, this relates to the bull-run in late 2013, when Bitcoin price surged to $1150. If you had bought in right at the top, then it took 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally broke that level in early 2017.
Assuming you missed buying the peak of that rally, your wait for profit would have been considerably less. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days would have given you a 75% chance of profit. There was a 60% chance of profit of you held Bitcoin for 35 days, and the likelihood that you were up over any single day was 50%.
If That Seems Like A Long Time, Check The S&P 500
For comparison, to achieve a sure profit on the S&P 500, you would have to have held it for 23 years.
Also, bear in mind that this analysis purely looks at the chance of profit and not the scale of that profit. When Bitcoin is on a bull-run, profits dwarf those achievable on stock market indices.
For example, the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust outperformed everything so far in 2019 with an almost 300% appreciation YTD, as reported by Cointelegraph in July.
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