Bitcoin’s Latest Record Run Is Less Volatile Than The 2017 Boom
Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally has come with some extreme moves, but by one measure, it’s not as chaotic as 2017. Bitcoin’s Latest Record Run Is Less Volatile Than The 2017 Boom
For instance, on a rolling 60-day basis, the swings in Bitcoin are generally smaller now than when Bitcoin was peaking in 2017. Part of the reason is that prices have steadily climbed for the last year, and the January selloff was orderly.
What makes the current run-up different than four years ago is a wider belief that Bitcoin will develop into mainstream asset class and the backing of big investors, such as Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller.
Crypto proponents argue that volatility is bound to eventually decline as demand broadens from speculators to long-term buyers, citing Tesla Inc.’s $1.5 billion purchase as one example.
“Bitcoin is on a nascent journey to becoming an established asset class,” said Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex in London.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has more than quadrupled in the past year and is close to breaching $50,000 for the first time. The market is designed to have a fixed supply of 21 million coins, which has drawn comparisons with gold.
The token’s swings are picking up at the moment, but eventually the market will calm down, said Mike McGlone, a commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Tesla allocations are a key iteration of Bitcoin going mainstream, which will pressure volatility toward that of gold and potentially, eventually below,” he said.
To be sure, Bitcoin has a long way to go before it’s anything like gold and is currently more similar to highly volatile stocks like Tesla Inc.
“Any investor that is short-term focused and worried about volatility should probably avoid Bitcoin if he wants to avoid sleepless nights,” said PwC’s Hong Kong-based Global Crypto Leader Henri Arslanian.
Updated: 10-30-2022
Can You Believe It? Bitcoin Looks Stable – Green, Even – As Big Tech Stocks Fall Apart
While a repeat of the super-rally seen in the second half of 2021 might not be likely, that era did come to mind last week as bitcoin showed strength.
Sometime in the (Eastern time zone) evening on July 25, 2021, was the start of a magical run for bitcoin, punctuated by a late night 5% jump (noted by the yellow arrow in chart below).
Bitcoin was in the mid-$30,000s range at the time, but by November it had reached an all-time high of around $68,000.
That era (basically ancient history at this point) zoomed back into my head last week. Bitcoin started 1 p.m. Eastern time on October 25 at $19,808.06, got as high as $20,176 during the hour, and was at $20,126.20 at 2 p.m. ET. The low in that hour was also $19,808.06 – an only-go-up hour.
Granted, this move wasn’t as big as the July 2021 one, but it raised eyebrows nonetheless (astute readers will see another such candle on the morning of October 26).
I’m also not implying that past performance is indicative of future results, so characterizing this one hour of price movement as the start of another run up to all-time highs would be premature (though history tends to rhyme).
But let’s face it, the bitcoin market has been pretty boring and last week was anything but. Not just because of the move up, but also because it happened in spite of last week’s dismal performance of big technology stocks.
Updated: 2-22-2023
Bitcoin Volatility Holds Steady As The VIX And MOVE Spike
The relative stability is reflective of mainstream disinterest in the crypto market, one observer said.
The bitcoin (BTC) market is showing an uncanny resilience in the face of renewed investor anxiety on Wall Street.
Data from CryptoCompare shows the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIN), which measures the implied or expected volatility over the next 30 days, has remained flat of late near the lower end of its three-month range of 60 to 100.
Implied volatility is often equated with the degree of uncertainty or anxiety in the market.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – commonly referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge – has jumped from 18 to 23 over the past three days, reaching a 2023 high.
Alongside, the MOVE index, which measures volatility in U.S. Treasurys, has jumped to a one-month high of 120, ending a four-month downtrend.
Bitcoin’s lack of participation in global volatility repricing is reminiscent of the pre-March 2020 days when traditional investors took little interest in digital assets, leaving the crypto market in its own world.
Bitcoin only evolved as a macro asset after the crash of March 2020, with BVIN typically closely tracking movements in VIX ever since.
“We attribute this correlation break to reflect a continued mainstream dis-interest in crypto products, as we return to the fringes of U.S. capital markets and chart our own narratives forward with hopefully more uncorrelated alpha,” SignalPlus Ltd, a tech firm focused on democratizing crypto options, said in its daily market report.
The most popular narrative since late 2022 is that bitcoin will repeat history by rallying sharply in the months leading up to its fourth mining reward halving due sometime in March 2024.
Reward halving refers to a programmed code that reduces the pace of bitcoin’s supply expansion by 50% every four years.
“The conditions are ripe for a breakthrough in 2023 that could catalyze a new bull market,” San Francisco crypto asset manager Bitwise wrote last month, taking note of the crypto’s tendency to rally ahead of the halving.
“We are excited by the growth of layer 2 solutions, the development of ZK-rollups and privacy solutions, and many other emergent capabilities of crypto,” the team added.
As for the jump in volatility in traditional assets, these markets have turned nervous in response to rates traders – factoring in recent upbeat economic data – quickly reversing bets on potential easing by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Markets were previously certain the Fed would hike its benchmark fed funds rate just 25 basis points in March, but are now showing a 20% probability of a 50 basis point move. The yield on the two-year Treasury note has increased by more than 50 basis points to 4.64% in February.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against major fiat currencies, has bounced from 102.00 to 104.00 as international money flows take advantage of higher yields.
“The risk of a ‘break higher’ in the economy with higher prices is a much bigger risk than recession concerns at this juncture,” SignalPlus said. “Equities were on borrowed time against the move in rates and FX.”
Updated: 2-27-2023
Cryptocurrencies Resilient Despite Weak Stocks, More Regulatory Action: Citi
Stablecoin market caps have stabilized while the percentage of ether in smart contracts continues to rise, a report from the bank said.
Cryptocurrency markets have remained resilient despite stocks’ weakness over the past week and increased regulatory activity in the U.S., Citi said in a research report Friday.
“Correlations with equities have continued to decline from last year’s peaks,” analysts led by Alex Saunders wrote. “Volumes remain robust, although on-chain and search activity have not been as durable.”
Stablecoin market caps have become steady after they declined following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, while the percentage of ether (ETH) in smart contracts continues to rise, the report said.
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to another asset, such as the U.S. dollar or gold.
Following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s plan to sue Paxos, the issuer of stablecoin binance USD (BUSD), there have been more than $3.5 billion in BUSD outflows, representing a 23% fall in market capitalization, Citi noted.
The outflows have generally made their way into rival stablecoin tether (USDT), the bank said.
“Total-value-locked (TVL) activity in ETH terms has not picked up as much as prices,” the note said, and decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes are unchanged this month after a steady decline.
The bank notes that non-fungible-token (NFT) activity has increased in recent weeks, though transactions levels remain far below 2022 averages.
Crypto search interest remains low despite the year-to-date rally in digital assets, the note added.
Updated: 3-1-2023
Bitcoin’s Least Volatile Month Ever? BTC Price Ends February Up 0.03%
In dollar terms, BTC price action at the end of February versus the start was unlike any other month.
Bitcoin moved just 0.03% last month in United State dollar terms, making February 2023 likely its least volatile in history.
Data from Coinglass after the monthly close confirms that BTC/USD went practically nowhere for four weeks straight.
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Barely Leaves A Trace
To say that Bitcoin is less volatile than it was is something of an understatement when it comes to February.
Despite its ups and downs, mostly due to macroeconomic data, BTC price action finished the month almost exactly where it began at around $23,500.
That means that Bitcoin was stabler than a raft of mainstream assets, including stocks, commodities and, of course, major world currencies.
This is no mean feat for cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin often criticized as a poor store of value owing to its sometimes intense volatility.
Nonetheless, following January’s 40% gains, bulls held down the fort to preserve every last satoshi versus the start of the month.
More than that, according to the Coinglass figures, no month has come close to February 2023 in terms of stability, making it the least volatile month on record.
For the record, March has already changed the trend, with BTC/USD up around 2.9% at the time of writing, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Bitcoin Price Volatility: All Is Not What It Seems
In terms of intraday moves, meanwhile, the picture on Bitcoin currently looks decidedly different.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, exchange order books reveal a concerted effort to spark volatility from some of the largest BTC traders.
On Binance specifically, these “whales” have created a bid wall that has successfully guided spot price action in what monitoring resource Material Indicators calls “manipulated” markets.
“Bitcoin managed to close February with a green Monthly candle, but IMO nothing for bulls to celebrate,” it wrote in one of several recent tweets on the topic.
An accompanying chart sought to explain how whales are attempting to influence price action.
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Co-Founder Of LinkedIn Presents Crypto Rap Video: Hamilton Vs. Satoshi (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Insurance Market To Grow, Lloyd’s Of London And Aon To Lead (#GotBitcoin?)
No ‘AltSeason’ Until Bitcoin Breaks $20K, Says Hedge Fund Manager (#GotBitcoin?)
NSA Working To Develop Quantum-Resistant Cryptocurrency: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Custody Provider Legacy Trust Launches Crypto Pension Plan (#GotBitcoin?)
Vaneck, SolidX To Offer Limited Bitcoin ETF For Institutions Via Exemption (#GotBitcoin?)
Russell Okung: From NFL Superstar To Bitcoin Educator In 2 Years (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Miners Made $14 Billion To Date Securing The Network (#GotBitcoin?)
Why Does Amazon Want To Hire Blockchain Experts For Its Ads Division?
Argentina’s Economy Is In A Technical Default (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockchain-Based Fractional Ownership Used To Sell High-End Art (#GotBitcoin?)
Portugal Tax Authority: Bitcoin Trading And Payments Are Tax-Free (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin ‘Failed Safe Haven Test’ After 7% Drop, Peter Schiff Gloats (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Dev Reveals Multisig UI Teaser For Hardware Wallets, Full Nodes (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Price: $10K Holds For Now As 50% Of CME Futures Set To Expire (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Realized Market Cap Hits $100 Billion For The First Time (#GotBitcoin?)
Stablecoins Begin To Look Beyond The Dollar (#GotBitcoin?)
Bank Of England Governor: Libra-Like Currency Could Replace US Dollar (#GotBitcoin?)
Binance Reveals ‘Venus’ — Its Own Project To Rival Facebook’s Libra (#GotBitcoin?)
The Real Benefits Of Blockchain Are Here. They’re Being Ignored (#GotBitcoin?)
CommBank Develops Blockchain Market To Boost Biodiversity (#GotBitcoin?)
SEC Approves Blockchain Tech Startup Securitize To Record Stock Transfers (#GotBitcoin?)
SegWit Creator Introduces New Language For Bitcoin Smart Contracts (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Earn Bitcoin Rewards For Postmates Purchases (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Price ‘Will Struggle’ In Big Financial Crisis, Says Investor (#GotBitcoin?)
Fidelity Charitable Received Over $100M In Crypto Donations Since 2015 (#GotBitcoin?)
Would Blockchain Better Protect User Data Than FaceApp? Experts Answer (#GotBitcoin?)
Just The Existence Of Bitcoin Impacts Monetary Policy (#GotBitcoin?)
What Are The Biggest Alleged Crypto Heists And How Much Was Stolen? (#GotBitcoin?)
IRS To Cryptocurrency Owners: Come Clean, Or Else!
Coinbase Accidentally Saves Unencrypted Passwords Of 3,420 Customers (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Is A ‘Chaos Hedge, Or Schmuck Insurance‘ (#GotBitcoin?)
Bakkt Announces September 23 Launch Of Futures And Custody
Coinbase CEO: Institutions Depositing $200-400M Into Crypto Per Week (#GotBitcoin?)
Researchers Find Monero Mining Malware That Hides From Task Manager (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Dusting Attack Affects Nearly 300,000 Addresses (#GotBitcoin?)
A Case For Bitcoin As Recession Hedge In A Diversified Investment Portfolio (#GotBitcoin?)
SEC Guidance Gives Ammo To Lawsuit Claiming XRP Is Unregistered Security (#GotBitcoin?)
15 Countries To Develop Crypto Transaction Tracking System: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
US Department Of Commerce Offering 6-Figure Salary To Crypto Expert (#GotBitcoin?)
Mastercard Is Building A Team To Develop Crypto, Wallet Projects (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Bitcoin Educator Scams The Scammer And Donates Proceeds (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon Wants To Build A Blockchain For Ads, New Job Listing Shows (#GotBitcoin?)
Shield Bitcoin Wallets From Theft Via Time Delay (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockstream Launches Bitcoin Mining Farm With Fidelity As Early Customer (#GotBitcoin?)
Commerzbank Tests Blockchain Machine To Machine Payments With Daimler (#GotBitcoin?)
Man Takes Bitcoin Miner Seller To Tribunal Over Electricity Bill And Wins (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Computing Power Sets Record As Over 100K New Miners Go Online (#GotBitcoin?)
Walmart Coin And Libra Perform Major Public Relations For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Judge Says Buying Bitcoin Via Credit Card Not Necessarily A Cash Advance (#GotBitcoin?)
Poll: If You’re A Stockowner Or Crypto-Currency Holder. What Will You Do When The Recession Comes?
1 In 5 Crypto Holders Are Women, New Report Reveals (#GotBitcoin?)
Beating Bakkt, Ledgerx Is First To Launch ‘Physical’ Bitcoin Futures In Us (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook Warns Investors That Libra Stablecoin May Never Launch (#GotBitcoin?)
Government Money Printing Is ‘Rocket Fuel’ For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin-Friendly Square Cash App Stock Price Up 56% In 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Safeway Shoppers Can Now Get Bitcoin Back As Change At 894 US Stores (#GotBitcoin?)
TD Ameritrade CEO: There’s ‘Heightened Interest Again’ With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuela Sets New Bitcoin Volume Record Thanks To 10,000,000% Inflation (#GotBitcoin?)
Newegg Adds Bitcoin Payment Option To 73 More Countries (#GotBitcoin?)
China’s Schizophrenic Relationship With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
More Companies Build Products Around Crypto Hardware Wallets (#GotBitcoin?)
Bakkt Is Scheduled To Start Testing Its Bitcoin Futures Contracts Today (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Now 8 Times More Powerful Than It Was At $20K Price (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Exchange BitMEX Under Investigation By CFTC: Bloomberg (#GotBitcoin?)
“Bitcoin An ‘Unstoppable Force,” Says US Congressman At Crypto Hearing (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Is Moving $3 Billion Daily, Up 210% Since April (#GotBitcoin?)
Cryptocurrency Startups Get Partial Green Light From Washington
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Pullback Is Healthy, Fewer Searches Аre Good (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Lightning Nodes Are Snatching Funds From Bad Actors (#GotBitcoin?)
The Provident Bank Now Offers Deposit Services For Crypto-Related Entities (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Could Help Stop News Censorship From Space (#GotBitcoin?)
US Sanctions On Iran Crypto Mining — Inevitable Or Impossible? (#GotBitcoin?)
US Lawmaker Reintroduces ‘Safe Harbor’ Crypto Tax Bill In Congress (#GotBitcoin?)
EU Central Bank Won’t Add Bitcoin To Reserves — Says It’s Not A Currency (#GotBitcoin?)
The Miami Dolphins Now Accept Bitcoin And Litecoin Crypt-Currency Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Bashes Bitcoin And Alt-Right Is Mad As Hell (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sachs Ramps Up Development Of New Secret Crypto Project (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockchain And AI Bond, Explained (#GotBitcoin?)
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Outperformed Indexes In First Half Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
XRP Is The Worst Performing Major Crypto Of 2019 (GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Back Near $12K As BTC Shorters Lose $44 Million In One Morning (#GotBitcoin?)
As Deutsche Bank Axes 18K Jobs, Bitcoin Offers A ‘Plan ฿”: VanEck Exec (#GotBitcoin?)
Argentina Drives Global LocalBitcoins Volume To Highest Since November (#GotBitcoin?)
‘I Would Buy’ Bitcoin If Growth Continues — Investment Legend Mobius (#GotBitcoin?)
Lawmakers Push For New Bitcoin Rules (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook’s Libra Is Bad For African Americans (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Firm Charity Announces Alliance To Support Feminine Health (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Startup Wants To Upgrade Millions Of ATMs To Sell Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Says US ‘Should Match’ China’s Money Printing Game (#GotBitcoin?)
Casa Launches Lightning Node Mobile App For Bitcoin Newbies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Rally Fuels Market In Crypto Derivatives (#GotBitcoin?)
World’s First Zero-Fiat ‘Bitcoin Bond’ Now Available On Bloomberg Terminal (#GotBitcoin?)
Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable 98.2% Of The Days Since Creation (#GotBitcoin?)
Another Crypto Exchange Receives License For Crypto Futures
From ‘Ponzi’ To ‘We’re Working On It’ — BIS Chief Reverses Stance On Crypto (#GotBitcoin?)
These Are The Cities Googling ‘Bitcoin’ As Interest Hits 17-Month High (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuelan Explains How Bitcoin Saves His Family (#GotBitcoin?)
Quantum Computing Vs. Blockchain: Impact On Cryptography
This Fund Is Riding Bitcoin To Top (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Surge Leaves Smaller Digital Currencies In The Dust (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exchange Hits $1 Trillion In Trading Volume (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Breaks $200 Billion Market Cap For The First Time In 17 Months (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Make State Tax Payments In Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Religious Organizations Make Ideal Places To Mine Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sacs And JP Morgan Chase Finally Concede To Crypto-Currencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Heading For Fifth Month Of Gains Despite Price Correction (#GotBitcoin?)
Breez Reveals Lightning-Powered Bitcoin Payments App For IPhone (#GotBitcoin?)
Big Four Auditing Firm PwC Releases Cryptocurrency Auditing Software (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon-Owned Twitch Quietly Brings Back Bitcoin Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
JPMorgan Will Pilot ‘JPM Coin’ Stablecoin By End Of 2019: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Is There A Big Short In Bitcoin? (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase Hit With Outage As Bitcoin Price Drops $1.8K In 15 Minutes
Samourai Wallet Releases Privacy-Enhancing CoinJoin Feature (#GotBitcoin?)
There Are Now More Than 5,000 Bitcoin ATMs Around The World (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Get Bitcoin Rewards When Booking At Hotels.Com (#GotBitcoin?)
North America’s Largest Solar Bitcoin Mining Farm Coming To California (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin On Track For Best Second Quarter Price Gain On Record (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Hash Rate Climbs To New Record High Boosting Network Security (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exceeds 1Million Active Addresses While Coinbase Custodies $1.3B In Assets
Why Bitcoin’s Price Suddenly Surged Back $5K (#GotBitcoin?)
Zebpay Becomes First Exchange To Add Lightning Payments For All Users (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase’s New Customer Incentive: Interest Payments, With A Crypto Twist (#GotBitcoin?)
The Best Bitcoin Debit (Cashback) Cards Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Real Estate Brokerages Now Accepting Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Ernst & Young Introduces Tax Tool For Reporting Cryptocurrencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Recession Is Looming, or Not. Here’s How To Know (#GotBitcoin?)
How Will Bitcoin Behave During A Recession? (#GotBitcoin?)
Many U.S. Financial Officers Think a Recession Will Hit Next Year (#GotBitcoin?)
Definite Signs of An Imminent Recession (#GotBitcoin?)
What A Recession Could Mean for Women’s Unemployment (#GotBitcoin?)
Investors Run Out of Options As Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds, Oil Cave To Recession Fears (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Is Looking To Reduce “Marcus” Lending Goal On Credit (Recession) Caution (#GotBitcoin?)
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