Bitcoin Has Already Reached 40% of Average Fiat Currency Lifespan
Bitcoin (BTC) may only be ten years old, but it is about to match half the lifespan of the average fiat currency — while actually increasing in value. Bitcoin Has Already Reached 40% of Average Fiat Currency Lifespan
As Bitcoin statistician and commentator Willy Woo noted on Oct. 18, the largest cryptocurrency has been around 40% as long as the average government-issued currency.
Woo was referencing a 2018 study by DollarDaze. Out of 775 fiat currencies past and present, researchers concluded the average lifespan is just 27 years.
The longest-living fiat currency, the British pound sterling, has lost practically all its value since its inception, not helped by leaving the gold standard in 1931.
“Bitcoin has already reached 40% of the life expectancy of the average fiat currency (27yrs). The most successful fiat currency has lost 99.5% of its value,” Woo summarized.
The figures contrast with the ongoing declarations from critics that Bitcoin is weakening or will collapse altogether. According to monitoring resource 99 Bitcoins, a total of 377 Bitcoin obituaries have surfaced since records began. Since launching, however, it has only gained value, with its publicly-verifiable scarcity ensuring demand.
As Cointelegraph often reports, Bitcoin’s uniquely high stock-to-flow ratio puts its appeal in line with gold. It does not suffer from the pitfalls of fiat, the supply of which is manipulated by centralized entities such as central banks.
Meanwhile, the network will set a major new milestone this week, mining its 18 millionth Bitcoin, out of a total potential supply of 21 million.
IMF Outlook Suggests A Financial Crisis Is Coming
Woo’s remarks came the same week as the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, issued its latest warning about the health of the global financial system.
According to its latest World Economic Outlook this month, the world is in fact in a worse position than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
“With central banks having to spend limited ammunition to offset policy mistakes, they may have little left when the economy is in a tougher spot,” the document’s foreword warns.
Updated: 11-2-2019
Analyst PlanB: Weak Dollar Can Upend Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model
The creator of the highly popular Stock-to-Flow model for forecasting the Bitcoin (BTC) price says he would be happy if it stays valid for the next 12 years.
PlanB: Stock-To-Flow Not Until 2140
In a Twitter exchange beginning on Nov. 1, the account known as PlanB said the tool, which has proven to be extremely accurate, was not designed to last forever.
“I normally don’t deploy statistical models 120+ years out into the future. I would be happy if the model holds for 1 or 2 or maybe 3 more halvings,” he wrote.
Stock-to-Flow measures Bitcoin price using the existing available supply — the stock — and the number of new Bitcoin units entering circulation — the flow.
Bitcoin’s flow halves roughly every four years in what is called a block reward halving. Each event decreases the amount of Bitcoin paid to miners for finding a new block.
BTC/USD has entered a bullish phase in the period following both halvings it has seen so far.
“Everything Else’s Value Is Decreasing”
As an asset with a high stock-to-flow ratio, Bitcoin ranks with gold as the antithesis to fiat currency, which can have its flow dramatically increased relative to its stock. This quality has led many to describe Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
As such, PlanB agreed, the model may one day no longer be able to take into account the weakness of the dollar if its stock-to-flow ratio drops even more. Specifically, this concerns the status quo at the end of Bitcoin’s mining period in 2140.
He agreed with the idea that it is not Bitcoin’s value increasing, but rather that “everything else’s value is decreasing.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Stock-to-Flow calls for Bitcoin to retain an average price of around $8,200 before its next halving event in May 2020.
Thereafter, the model calls for a dramatic bull run, with a price of $100,000 by around the end of 2021. PlanB reconfirmed his belief in this eventuality in an interview last month.
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