Traditional Investors View Bitcoin As If It Were A Technology Stock
Technology stocks, including iPhone-maker Apple, search giant Google, online retail behemoth Amazon and social network Facebook, have surged during the coronavirus pandemic. Traditional Investors View Bitcoin As If It Were A Technology Stock
Bitcoin, up 60% year-to-date, has (so far) outperformed them all—even beating Amazon’s massive 2020 stock price rally and dwarfing the Nasdaq’s NDAQ +2.2% 22% increase.
As Bitcoin Approaches $13,000 It Breaks Correlation With Equities
Now, London-based digital asset management firm CoinShares has recommended investors allocate 4% of their portfolios to bitcoin—arguing “bitcoin, in its growth phase, behaves like a tech stock.”
“Having started its life at a price of zero, it’s no surprise that bitcoin’s investment performance, like that of successful start-ups, has been stellar,” CoinShares’ research strategist James Butterfill wrote in a report out this week.
“As a disruptive technology, bitcoin’s risk profile is rather similar to that of a technology stock: if it reaches its potential, the value could be immense, but at the same time, there is a chance it fails entirely, leaving the value of bitcoins close to zero.”
Bitcoin, created in 2009, has seen its value rise rapidly over the last decade—surging from mere pennies per bitcoin early in the last decade to over $11,000 now.
Meanwhile, tech stocks such as Facebook, Apple, Google and Amazon have soared in recent months, pushed on by coronavirus-induced lockdowns that have accelerated a trend toward digital services and remote working.
The CoinShares report concludes: “[Bitcoin] is beginning to mature into a store of value, although this is not how it has behaved in the past,” and advises investors, “a bitcoin portfolio weight of just under 4% is optimal in a traditional 60/40 portfolio.”
The report chimes with recent research suggesting institutional investors on Wall Street are increasingly moving into the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. There’s also been interest in bitcoin from high-profile stock market day traders casting around for exciting alternatives to equity.
Elsewhere, bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” got a boost earlier this year when legendary macro investor Paul Tudor Jones revealed he was buying bitcoin as a hedge against the inflation he sees coming as a result of coronavirus crisis-induced Federal Reserve and central bank money-printing.
“We are already seeing an increase in bitcoin’s correlation to inflation and gold, also a store of value,” Butterfill said via email, adding that, over the last month, there’s been a “divergence in performance between tech stocks and bitcoin.”
“We expect that some investors will always treat [bitcoin] as a tech stock given its links with tech though, but the transition is happening as we speak.”
Butterfill warned that bitcoin investment is still seen as a “a dirty little secret”—with a large cohort of institutional investors worried about “public ridicule.”
However, “as this ridicule subsides, we will see further institutional participation,” he said.
Bitcoin And Cryptocurrency Are No Hedge For Inflation
Crypto-investors flock to the industry not because of crypto technology or the deflationary nature of Bitcoin but because of fear of missing out. Those who suffer from FOMO believe that since everyone else is investing, they should be too. We saw this happen during the ICO mania of 2017 when investors primarily wanted to make money — and not invest in innovative technology.
Investors and crypto enthusiasts often speak of crypto in relation to fiat currency, but it was not the intention of cryptocurrencies to be correlated in such a way. The intention was to create an alternative to fiat.
Crypto enthusiasts are the new hippies of the 21st century. We are not protesting in the streets. We are building an alternative. In order to build it, we need to return to our roots and stop correlating crypto with fiat.
We don’t want the crypto market to grow because the traditional monetary system failed. We want to see this market grow because investors demand choice and financial freedom.
Rather than a hedge against inflation, cryptocurrencies are an alternative to the dominant system entirely.
The U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, recently announced that the Fed will now shift its focus from targeting inflation to closing “unemployment shortfalls.” The Fed, in essence, is doubling-down on the same inflationary policies with which it experimented during the 2008 global financial crisis.
Speaking at a virtual Jackson Hole event recently, Powell said the Fed would not raise rates anytime soon. He also said that the Fed would tolerate higher inflation, departing from the historical norm of a 2% inflation target. This cheap money and higher inflation policy take quantitative easing to an entirely new level.
A Federal Reserve study on Bank of Japan practices during its 2013 economic crisis warned that higher inflation targets could result in “never-ending monetary accommodation, even when real economic activity is strong or when financial stability risks accumulate.” The Bank of Japan had introduced in March 2013 quantitative and qualitative monetary easing to stimulate the Japanese economy and increase the inflation rate.
On the heels of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the dollar’s value fell against the euro, while gold rallied back to its 1950 highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has plateaued; Ether (ETH) stabilized; and stocks have yet again rallied. The Fed won’t be able to reverse the course from its new policy so easily, however.
As governments print infinite amounts of money through bailouts and quantitative easing, inflation will likely send core prices higher. Clearly, the fiat system is imperfect. The crypto media uses the threat of inflation to proclaim the benefits of cryptocurrencies. Against a backdrop of shrinking gross domestic products, economic slowdown, government bailouts and fiscal stimulus, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been touted as an inflation-resistant hedge. The claim? You should buy Bitcoin because crypto serves as a hedge to the broken fiat system.
Bitcoin, however, remains a nascent technology. In times of economic uncertainty, investors still prefer to flock to gold and stocks as safe-haven assets. In the case of gold, according to Morningstar data, the S&P GSCI Gold Index gained 7.2% in the last three months of 2018, while the stock market declined nearly 14%. Even during the most recent bear market when equities dropped by 33%, the gold index declined by only 2%. The price of gold then shot up over the next few months to record levels. Gold volatility, however, can go both ways. Almost a third of fund managers polled in the August 2020 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey stated that they believed that gold was overvalued.
From the Fidelity president filing for a new Bitcoin fund to multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin and crypto asset manager Grayscale reporting its biggest-ever quarterly inflows of almost $1 billion, institutional demand for Bitcoin has been rising amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This institutional attention showcases the seriousness with which major players have been considering Bitcoin as an investable asset.
Institutional money, however, is only just beginning to enter the cryptocurrency ecosystem, and so the market is still relatively immature and fragmented. Crypto needs more time to grow before it is widely considered a safe-haven asset.
Investors today use Bitcoin as a store of value because they think the prices will increase in fiat terms. Be warned: This shouldn’t be the sole intention of investing in the crypto market. If people are investing in this space because the financial system is collapsing, then we will see an unhealthy price increase followed by a collapse in the crypto index.
A Researcher Debunks Stock-To-Flow Model, Likens Bitcoin To A ‘Tech Stock’
“There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall, but S2F is not one of them”, contends report author.
A report authored by the research team of ByteTree purports to debunk one of the most popular Bitcoin (BTC) valuation models — Stock-to-Flow. The model provides a very optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, claiming that a year from now we should see price levels above $100,000.
BytTree’s co-founder and chief investment officer, Charlie Morris, dedicates the entire fourth chapter of the report to “debunking” it. The stock-to-flow models have been applied for decades to forecast the price of commodities like gold and silver.
Stock is the existing supply of the asset and flow is the additional new supply that is being generated. Applied to Bitcoin, it hinges on the fact that its inflation or flow will be getting progressively smaller, while the stock-to-flow ratio will be getting progressively higher. Thus, producing “sky is the limit” forecasts for the price.
Morris contends that the Bitcoin price is not dictated by the supply-side economics at all. In an economy, he argues, the market adjusts on both sides: supply and demand until the new equilibrium is reached. Since Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, it is left to the demand side of the equation to determine the price, he concludes.
Morris believes that another problem with the model is that it overemphasizes newly-mined coins as if they were the only ones available for sale, “but anyone who owns Bitcoin is free to sell.” He also points out that the network’s dynamics have changed:
“When the network has a large stock and a relatively small flow, it is the stock that matters. As the flow diminishes, it becomes less important in influencing market prices.”
Further, he suggests the role of the Bitcoin miners has diminished over time as indicated by the decrease in the ratio of their revenues to market capitalization:
“Miners’ once earned 50% of the market cap each year. At that time, they had a huge influence on price, but at 1.7%, they don’t. Similarly, they used to account for 68% of all the transaction value, which has fallen to 3.9%.”
He acknowledges that miners still play an important role as the network’s maintainers “but their economic footprint is diminishing”.
Morris provides another criticism of the model — it does not take into account the actual usage and adoption of Bitcoin, which he believes is the network’s intrinsic value:
“I would argue that Bitcoin represents a powerful digital network that is thriving. It is a sort of technology stock without profits or a CEO, but with high security, growing distribution and application. There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall, but S2F is not one of them.”
It’s worth noting that the price has lagged behind the level forecast by the model in the months since Bitcoin’s third block halving.
Bitcoin Decouples From Legacy Markets As ‘Breathtaking’ Rally Predicted
Kraken has identified a decreasing correlation between Bitcoin and the legacy financial markets.
Kraken’s September volatility report found Bitcoin (BTC) largely maintaining a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since May, despite a brief coalescence between the two markets in early September.
The report attributes BTC’s dollar decoupling to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to maintain zero percent interest rates until at least 2023, in addition to declining growth rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown positive correlation with the Euro since May.
The report notes that while the start of the month saw an 8-month low for correlation between BTC and the S&P 500, the correlation would later increase as both markets experienced sideways consolidation.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has remained positive since mid-July, with both markets experiencing bearish pressure over recent weeks.
Looking forward, Kraken anticipates Bitcoin will post a stronger performance in October than in September, and this would be consistent with the trend exhibited in eight of the past nine years.
The report predicts October will drive an 11% gain for BTC, suggesting Bitcoin will close the month at $11,850 — a 3% gain from current price levels. However, Kraken notes that Bitcoin has underperformed its monthly average during six of the nine months that have transpired in 2020 so far.
Kraken’s mild optimism is outshone by the bullish calls from two respected analysts. Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal recently revealed he has shifted more than half of his personal investment portfolio into Bitcoin in anticipation of massive institutional adoption:
“Just from what I know from all the institutions, all of the people I speak to, there is an enormous wall of money coming into this.”
And Alex Saunders from Nugget’s News compared the current set up to mid-2017 and predicted that institutional appetite for Bitcoin was likely to trigger a “breathtaking rally”:
July 2017. $BTC at $2700 & investors were scared of Segwit, hard forks & FUD. I shared a write up about a breathe taking rally I saw coming that would surprise us all.
Last night I shared write up just as bullish. I think a breathe taking rally approaches. #Bitcoin #Brrrr pic.twitter.com/ajAlA9IDYd
— Alex Saunders (@AlexSaundersAU) October 12, 2020
In an update to subscribers last night he said:
“Publicly traded companies [and] legendary investors are singing from the rooftops about this new asset class at a time when there’s record money sitting in bank accounts looking to find a home.”
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