Missiles Fly, Stocks Drop, Bonds Suck, Dollar Dives, Real Estate Declines, Yet Bitcoin Holds, Revealing BTC’s Strength In Global Chaos

Long-term Bitcoin holders now control a record 14.53 million BTC, tightening supply as institutional demand rises despite geopolitical tensions. Missiles Fly, Stocks Drop, Bonds Suck, Dollar Dives, Real Estate Declines, Yet Bitcoin Holds, Revealing BTC’s Strength In Global Chaos

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Bitcoin’s low volatility stands out because it’s happening during the escalating Middle East conflict, especially after the US bombing of Iran. BTC price reacted by falling 6% to below $100,000 over the weekend.

In previous cycles, such geopolitical shocks often caused much larger and more chaotic price moves. Namely, Bitcoin’s 60%-65% realized volatility at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, much higher than US equities.

But this time, Bitcoin’s volatility remained relatively low, suggesting that most traders and investors didn’t react with panic and that BTC is maturing as an asset class.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply At Record Highs

The growth of long-term holders has largely stabilized Bitcoin in recent weeks, wrote Glassnode analysts in their recent report.

“Over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by just 216 centralized entities — including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries,” they noted, adding that such concentrated ownership is turning Bitcoin into a “maturing asset class.”

The total Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has steadily increased in recent years, reaching a record high of 14.53 million BTC (30-day average) as of Monday, nearly 70% of the maximum 21 million supply.

Bitcoin’s price has been trending higher over the years as long-term holders remove supply from circulation while institutional demand rises, a dynamic fueling sustained upward price pressure.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL Chief Commercial Officer Eugene Cheung anticipate BTC’s price to continue growing above the $100,000 level in the future due to central bank money printing and strong institutional support.

Some analysts predict Bitcoin will rise above $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Bitcoin’s June price action during the Israel–Iran conflict shows that it remains a macro asset, albeit one increasingly shaped by global instability.

On Saturday, June 21, 2025, the US hit Iranian nuclear facilities, causing a short-lived dip in the price action of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin rebounded before its Sunday close to just under 1.27% of its price before the US military effort.

For 10 days in June, missiles flew and markets wobbled, but Bitcoin held its ground — not immune to war, but more stable than fear would suggest.

It is within human nature to want to find patterns, but correlation does not necessarily mean causation. Looking at the headlines, it is easy to assume that things are moving because of one news story or the next.

Israel hits Iran. Iran strikes back. The United States drops 30,000-pound bunker busters. Bitcoin drifts lower to $98,286, and the headlines scream correlation.

Looking closer, however, the drawdown was orderly. No panic. No wipeout. And by the time the dust settled, Bitcoin had closed the week still above six figures at $100,760.

The most severe military escalation in the region in years moved the asset just 1.27% in 24 hours.

That is not a crisis. That is a market taking the news like it takes the weather.

Whether someone is a trader, a hodler or someone new to the cryptoverse, deciphering the effect of global headlines on Bitcoin’s price action can help separate the signal from the noise, and clarify what moves the market in both the short and long term.

The Conflict, The Charts And The Causality Trap

Sentiment is important to risk assets like Bitcoin, and BTC’s price action has been affected by the recent conflict in the Middle East. Famous gold bug and anti-Bitcoiner Peter Schiff asked on X on Sunday, “Other than [Michael Saylor], who’s buying the dip below $100K?”.

While BTC’s price dropped to almost $98K, there was enough market response to support going back above that psychological six-figure mark by the day’s close.

BTC and its USD trading price constantly fluctuate, and it is in this range that we can glean the most insight. When looking at the highs and lows of BTC price action from June 12 through Sunday, we can see that Bitcoin’s price closed above the range of lows for that day, showing signs of support at that current level, even if there was a multiday downward trend.

A downward trend makes sense when considering that the 200-day moving average for BTC is around $95,567.

A 200 DMA is a key long-term trend indicator that often provides market support and resistance levels for assets if the price dips drastically in the short term.

Bitcoin does show movement in response to news about political conflicts.

Still, it often finds stability rather quickly, and in a longer time frame, other headlines may have more of an effect on BTC’s price volatility.

Macro Still Holds The Wheel

Going back to the start of 2025 and looking for headlines that moved the crypto market medium-term, we can find that the macro-news headlines from the United States seem to show more of a correlation than the recent Iran-Israel conflict.

One of the largest BTC price escalations was the swearing in of US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with the price declining in the days to follow without an official word on the crypto industry.

On Feb. 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% and core CPI to 3.3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s rate pause. On March 19, the Fed cut its GDP forecast to 1.7%, raised its unemployment projection to 4.4%, and raised its inflation expectations.

On April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that new tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth.

On April 10, CPI fell to 2.3%, helping spark hopes of rate cuts. On May 13, CPI remained at 2.3%, but core inflation stayed sticky at 2.8%. On May 30, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) dropped to 2.1%, and core PCE to 2.5%.

During the Iran–Israel conflict, on June 11, CPI came in at 2.4%, and on June 12, the Producer Price Index (PPI) printed at 0.2%.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady but lowered the GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised inflation projections to 3%. This flurry of macro data moved Bitcoin over six months more than any single missile launch.

Even the June 16 peak at 108,915 dollars coincided with BlackRock reporting 412 million dollars in ETF inflows, which was capital rotation, not conflict premium.

Bitcoin Trends Historically Well In Major Geopolitical Events

Bitcoin has historically trended positively during periods of geopolitical turmoil. During major events like the US–Iran tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran–Israel conflict of 2025, Bitcoin has shown upward movement or remarkable price stability.

While it does not act like a traditional safe haven, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge in systemic uncertainty.

BlackRock’s 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during several past geopolitical shocks.

Their chart highlights Bitcoin’s unique behavior during crises: While equities dipped and gold oscillated, Bitcoin frequently trended upward.

That pattern did not break in June 2025. It did not surge, but it also did not break the trend.

That matters in a world desperate for assets that don’t follow the herd.

Not Immune To War, But Not Moved By It Either

When Bitcoin moved during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, it did not respond to ideology. It was reacting to liquidation and flow. That is not the same thing. Traders sold into uncertainty.

Others bought the dip. ETF demand continued. The structure held.

The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines tested Bitcoin’s resilience. It was a real-world stress test that did not result in technical breakdown or institutional flight.

That’s not bullish in a hyped sense; it’s bullish in a structural sense.

The asset did not flinch when the world briefly tilted toward catastrophe, but that tilt is far from over. Black swan events can affect all asset classes and provide investors with potential positive entries.

Gauging if the news effect will be short, medium or long-lived is a tricky question to answer.

Bitcoin Supply Is Shrinking: Will Saylor’s Relentless BTC Buying Cause A Supply Shock?

Bitcoin’s Shrinking Supply: What’s Going On?

With less BTC in circulation, experts are bracing for a potential supply shock.

Bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins has always been central to its appeal. However, by 2025, this built-in scarcity is no longer just a theoretical feature; it’s becoming a market reality.

93% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, and since the network’s fourth halving in April, which cut miner rewards in half, fewer new coins are entering circulation each day.

At the same time, long-term holders are sitting tight. A growing share of Bitcoin is now locked in cold storage, tied up in institutional holdings or presumed lost.

About 70% of the Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in at least a year, a sign that liquidity is drying up.

With the addition of increasing demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), public companies and even sovereign wealth funds, the result is a tightening market that has analysts warning of a potential supply shock, a moment when available Bitcoin on exchanges becomes too scarce to meet demand, potentially triggering sharp price moves.

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy: Relentless Accumulation

Saylor’s Strategy now holds about 3% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, and he’s not slowing down.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, has made Bitcoin accumulation his life’s mission.

Since 2020, he’s turned the software company into a full-blown BTC holding vehicle, borrowing money, issuing stock and spending company cash to buy more Bitcoin.

As of mid-2025, Strategy holds more than 2.75% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately 582,000 BTC) and continues to buy more every month. This aggressive approach fuels concerns that a BTC supply crisis may be on the horizon.

Fewer coins available on exchanges means less liquidity, especially for new entrants or retail traders looking to buy in.

Bitcoin Supply Meets Institutional Demand

Institutions are no longer just watching crypto — they’re buying in bulk.

Bitcoin’s shift from retail speculation to institutional-grade asset is now unmistakable.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and elsewhere have opened new gateways for pension funds, banks and investment firms.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) averaged $430 million net inflow per day over late May 2025, culminating in $6.35 billion of inflows for the month, its largest ever.

When institutions buy through spot ETFs, the underlying Bitcoin is moved into custodial cold storage.

These flows pull coins off exchanges, tightening liquid supply in the market.

This surge in institutional demand adds another layer to the Bitcoin supply-and-demand imbalance. Even conservative banks now consider BTC a long-term hedge.

On May 27, Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social, confirmed a $2.5-billion fundraising round to acquire Bitcoin, reversing earlier denials.

Around the same time, GameStop disclosed a $500-million Bitcoin investment.

Meanwhile, Tether, SoftBank and Strike CEO Jack Mallers announced the launch of Twenty One, a Bitcoin-native public company set to debut with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet, making it the third-largest corporate holder globally.

Liquidity Crunch: Will Bitcoin Run Out?

No, Bitcoin won’t “run out,” but usable, tradable supply may dry up.

One common misunderstanding is that Bitcoin will disappear from circulation. That’s not quite true.

However, a Bitcoin liquidity crisis can occur when a significant portion of the supply is held offline, in cold wallets or ETFs, rendering trading inefficient.

Already, onchain data shows that exchange balances are at their lowest levels in years. This can lead to more volatile price swings, both up and down, as small changes in demand hit a thin supply.

As of early June 2025, the share of Bitcoin on exchanges has dipped below 11% of the total supply, the lowest level since early 2018, creating a “dry market” prone to larger price swings.

Will There Be A Bitcoin Supply Shock In 2025?

It’s already unfolding, just not all at once.

You may not see a single explosive moment when Bitcoin “runs out.” But all signs point to a slow-burning BTC supply squeeze.

From miners earning less to institutions buying more to whales refusing to sell, the pressure is building.

Whether it triggers a price spike depends on one thing: new demand. If retail, corporate and national buyers continue piling in, Bitcoin’s limited supply could create a feedback loop of rising prices and even greater demand.

“Over the long term, Bitcoin on the balance sheet has proven to be extraordinarily popular,” Saylor said.

Bitcoin’s Scarcity Tested In Real Time

Scarcity was always part of Bitcoin’s core narrative, but now it’s being stress-tested in real time.

The combination of shrinking supply, institutional hoarding and diminishing miner rewards is pushing Bitcoin into a new phase.

Whether you see it as a bullish supply shock or a concerning centralization trend, the dynamics are clear: There’s less Bitcoin to go around.

And this isn’t just about math; it’s about perception. If institutional inflows continue and everyday users struggle to buy even small amounts without premiums, a bullish supply shock may emerge.

And Yet, The Macro Backdrop Matters:

* Interest Rates Remain High Globally.

* Governments Are Cautious With Bitcoin Due To Regulatory Uncertainty And Environmental, Social And Governance (ESG) Concerns.

* Gold Is Still Favored By Central Banks As A Reserve Asset; Over 1,000 Tons Was Added To Global Reserves In 2024 Alone.

So, will Bitcoin dethrone gold as the premier store of value? Not yet.

But 2025 marks the first time in history where Bitcoin’s scarcity profile is tighter, its supply dynamics more aggressive and its adoption narrative broader than gold’s.

Investors, regulators and average users alike should watch the space closely.

If Saylor and other whales keep accumulating and demand keeps rising, the real question might not be if there’s a supply shock, but how high Bitcoin might go when it hits.

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