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Mike Novogratz And Andreas Antonopoulos On The Bitcoin Crash

As after any major Bitcoin (BTC) crash, analysts are now arguing over what could potentially have been the cause. Mike Novogratz And Andreas Antonopoulos On The Bitcoin Crash

But this time, the answer is simple, at least according to noted Bitcoin bull and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. In a tweet on March 13, Novogratz said:

“[Bitcoin] was always a confidence game. All crypto is. And it appears global confidence in just about anything has evaporated.”

Pandemic Panic

The coronavirus pandemic has shaken global markets to their core, and disputes between oil-producing nations have only added to the misery. As investors have been frantically liquidating their assets, even those considered safe havens have not been immune.

While Bitcoin was suffering its 40% price crash yesterday, gold also took a beating, although not quite to the same extent.

Rebuilding Confidence

So rather than dwelling on losses, Novogratz suggests that the real question is how to bring confidence back to Bitcoin.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin price briefly dropped to a new yearly low of $3,782 at one point yesterday, before promptly rebounding back above $5,200.

So confidence is not gone completely, and some will still try to profit from Bitcoin’s extreme volatility at this time. However, for the markets to fully regain confidence, investors may have to wait until the current panic blows over.

2 Months Ago, Andreas Antonopoulos Explained Why Bitcoin Would Crash

Bitcoin (BTC) falling as a result of financial turmoil was obvious to one of the space’s leading speakers and educators — he predicted it just two months ago.

Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did podcast on Jan. 3, the impact of a recession or similar event was obvious to Andreas Antonopoulos.

Antonopoulos: BTC Investors “Don’t Realize” Crash Potential

“What most people don’t realize I think is that, in the beginning at least, crypto will crash hard,” he explained.

“And the reason it will crash hard is because a lot of the venture capital, corporate investments and private investment from individuals that is based on cheap money and disposable income and excess cash in portfolios etc., like in any other part of the economy, will dry up.”

That scenario forecast this week’s market mania to an uncanny degree. After some markets saw their worst day since 1987, Bitcoin followed by tanking 60% to lows of around $3,600 on some exchanges.

While commentators are scrambling to explain the phenomenon, Antonopoulos appeared to have already catered to such a scenario.

“When people get scared, when there is a recession like that, they pull back their investments, and they’re going to pull back from crypto too,” he continued.

The Economy’s Titanic Moment

He noted that Bitcoin alone in January required around $18 million of buys per day just to keep price parity.

“From that perspective, I think the first order effect that happens if we have a recession is crypto crashes because all the liquidity dries up which is a classic effect and symptom of a recession.”

Thereafter, Bitcoin has the chance to emerge as a safe haven, but the relative difficulty of accessing and storing for non-technical investors could form hurdles to adoption and price stability.

Antonopoulos Concluded:

“All of those things are really a symptom of the fact that we have a small lifeboat and a very, very large number of people who need saving.”

BTC/USD managed to recoup some of Thursday’s monumental losses the next day, but at press time still traded down 9%.

Exchange Data Contained Early Warning of Thursday’s Bitcoin Dump

The big drop in bitcoin’s (BTC) price Thursday was in the making since March 8, data on the flow of funds into exchanges indicates.

The biggest cryptocurrency by market value collapsed from $7,900 to a 10-month low of $4,700 on Thursday and extended the decline to 12-month lows below $3,900 early Friday.

Data provided by blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant shows inflows into major exchanges, or deposits, began rising at higher-than-usual rate beginning March 8. One way to read this is as a possible co-ordinated action by whales to dump the cryptocurrency.

* X-Axis Represents The Block Number, A Proxy For Time
* The Left Side Y-Axis Is Bitcoin’s Price
* The Right Side Y-Axis Is The Number Of Incoming Coins Into All Exchanges

Coins began flowing into exchanges at a faster rate starting from block number 620.8K, mined on March 8. Prior to that block, the average inflow per transaction was about 1,000 BTC. But after that, inflows ranged from 1.500 to 6,000 BTC in the run-up to Thursday’s price drop.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency’s slide began with a near 10 percent drop on March 8. In the following three days, BTC posted marginal losses – before plunging by a staggering 39 percent on Thursday

The implication is that whales – individuals, or entities, that hold large amounts of digital currencies – started moving coins from wallets to exchanges at least four days in advance of the dump.

A similar pattern can be seen at the world’s largest exchange, Binance. Prior to 620.817K, the average inflow per block was about 100 BTC. After that point in time, inflows ranged from 130 to 1,702 BTC in almost every block.

Notably, that huge inflow of 1,702 BTC was observed in block number 620.965 when bitcoin’s price was trading near $8,000.

Again, the data suggests big players had begun preparing for the massive liquidation since March 8.

Similarly, inflows into BitMEX fluctuated between 97 and 1,994 BTC from block numbers 620.8K to 621.3K.

One transaction, for 1,000 BTC, was recorded in block number 621,256 when bitcoin’s price was hovering around $7,900.
Lead indicator?

It is doubtful anybody could have predicted the magnitude of the sell-off seen on Thursday. That said, the increased inflow of BTC into exchanges was a sign the big sellers were getting ready to offload their holdings, which usually translates into big price slide.

The lesson: Keeping a close eye on inflows into exchanges can help leveraged traders avoid getting trapped on the wrong side of the market.

Updated: 3-23-2020

‘This Will And Needs To Be Bitcoin’s Year’ Says Mike Novogratz

With vast swaths of the world markets in virtual lockdown amid the coronavirus pandemic, some predict that the shocks rippling through the global economy in early 2020 may yet come to dwarf the magnitude of the 2008 financial crash.

Just as Bitcoin (BTC)’s creation is bound up with 2008 and the Great Recession, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz sees this year as make-or-break for the cryptocurrency.

In a tweet posted on March 22 — just hours after the United States Congress failed to reach a bipartisan agreement on a proposed $2 trillion economic support package — Novogratz wrote:

“$BTC will continue to be volatile over the next few months but the macro backdrop is WHY it was created. This will be and needs to be BTC’s year.”

Never Let A Good Crisis Go To Waste

Earlier this month, traditional markets had suffered their worst blows since 1987 — a plummet mirrored in Bitcoin’s 60% drop to lows of around $3,600 on some exchanges.

As the pandemic enters its fifth week — exacerbated by collapsing demand and a price-war in the oil sector — spooked investors have continued their sell-offs overnight.

Asian stocks have slumped in the fallout from the stalemate in Congress, with Wall Street futures crashing to hit their downside limit of 5%.

Ten days ago — with investors deserting even “safe-haven” commodities such as gold — Novogratz argued that Bitcoin was no less vulnerable to the impact of the frantic liquidations:

“[Bitcoin] was always a confidence game. All crypto is. And it appears global confidence in just about anything has evaporated.”

Yet his latest tweet now points to the potential opportunities for the cryptocurrency amid the economic crisis.

In this view, Bitcoin — as a censorship-resistant medium of exchange and non-inflationary unit of account — was designed precisely as an alternative to the faltering world monetary system.

In a tweet that followed his remarks on Bitcoin yesterday, Novogratz had appealed to a stalling Congress not to repeat the “first failure of TARP” — the controversial bailout fund passed in 2008, which some consider to have left the structural weaknesses of the system virtually intact.

Taking note of Bitcoin’s apparent decoupling from COVID-stricken traditional markets earlier this week, Changpeng Zhao — the CEO of crypto exchange Binance — had similarly argued that the pandemic should be understood as a trigger, rather than the root cause, of a visibly fragile world economic order.

 

 

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