US Deficit Will Be At Least 6 Times Bitcoin Market Cap — Every Year (#GotBitcoin?)
The average budget deficit of the United States will “never” be less than $1 trillion per year in the future — or 4.5% of GDP, worrying data on the fiat economy shows. US Deficit Will Be At Least 6 Times Bitcoin Market Cap — Every Year (#GotBitcoin?)
Compiled by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and shared by crypto hedge fund manager Travis Kling on Jan. 21, statistics reveal that the annual deficit is set to hit $12.2 trillion for the entire 2020s.
Deficit As GDP Share Up 55% In 50 Years
“Such deficits would be significantly larger than the 2.9 percent of GDP that deficits averaged over the past 50 years,” the CBO itself commented when it released the projections last September.
$1 trillion is more than six times the market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) and four times the market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined.
The data concerned Kling, who like other Bitcoin proponents has drawn clear distinctions between the cryptocurrency and fiat currency.
As Cointelegraph reported, the deficit is not the only worrying aspect of U.S. economic policy to surface in numbers in recent months. Late last year, it emerged that the country’s total debt is now higher than ever at $23 trillion, while the world’s total debt is $255 trillion — or $12.1 million for each Bitcoin.
In simple terms, budget deficits occur when the value of a country’s spending exceeds the value of its revenues. As Kling notes, governments can use fiat to plug the difference, allowing them to increase the money supply which they can then direct as desired.
Over the New Year period, the Federal Reserve added $425 billion to the dollar supply.
Printing Fiat To Plug Deficits “Never Ended Well”
The process has its roots in Keynesian economics, which calls for states and central banks to “manage” the money supply instead of allowing the market to decide prices for goods and services.
Such a setup creates a problem known as the “Impossible Trinity” — attempting to achieve free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate between currencies and independent monetary policy.
“Imagine the allure as a politician of promising your constituents all the spending they want, w/o ever having to raise taxes. Spend more AND cut taxes! There’s no inflation!” Kling wrote on Twitter.
“This has been tried many times before in monetary history and there is no example where it ended well.”
As Saifedean Ammous explains in his book, “The Bitcoin Standard,” preventing “meddling” by governments and central banks would reverse the processes which lead to phenomena such as deficits. This is because fiat would cease to be money “by decree” as its name implies, and would instead operate without a central authority, similar to Bitcoin.
U.S. National Debt Will Rise To 98% of GDP by 2030, CBO Projects
Deficits will exceed $1 trillion a year for at least 11 years, budget office says.
Sustained federal budget deficits and debt will hit the highest levels since World War II over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projected on Tuesday, following multiple rounds of tax cuts and continued increases in federal spending.
The government will spend $1 trillion more than it collects in 2020 and deficits will exceed that amount every year for the foreseeable future. As a share of gross domestic product, the deficit will be at least 4.3% every year through 2030. That would be the longest stretch of budget deficits exceeding 4% of GDP over the past century, according to CBO.
Debt held by the public will be 81% of GDP this year and is projected to reach 98% by 2030. That stems from the combination of tax cuts and projected increases in spending—particularly on safety-net programs such as Medicare and Social Security.
“Not since World War II has the country seen deficits during times of low unemployment that are as large as those that we project,” said CBO Director Phillip Swagel.
CBO’s projections assume that Congress will allow current spending and tax law to occur without any changes. Deficits and debt would be larger than projected if Congress extends individual tax cuts beyond their scheduled expiration at the end of 2025.
During his 2016 campaign, President Trump talked about paying off the federal debt within eight years. Reality has moved in the opposite direction.
In 2017, Congress enacted tax cuts championed by the president, which are projected to increase budget deficits by more than $1 trillion over a decade. Administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, have argued that the tax cuts will pay for themselves.
But nonpartisan estimates have contested that claim, and CBO said Tuesday that it had lowered its projected revenue from the 2017 law by $110 billion to incorporate Treasury regulations that eased some international tax provisions and businesses’ responses to the law.
The Trump administration has proposed some spending cuts, but his deals with Congress have gone the other way, with Republicans and Democrats agreeing to increase spending on domestic programs and national defense.
For years, lawmakers and budget experts warned that budget deficits were unsustainable because federal borrowing could crowd out private borrowing, leading to interest-rate increases. But that hasn’t happened, and interest rates have remained persistently low.
Those low rates have limited the government’s cost of borrowing. Since CBO’s last budget forecast in August 2019, projected interest costs have declined by $441 billion over a decade, reflecting rates that are 0.3 percentage point below the previous estimate. But loss of revenue from tax cuts enacted in December 2019 exceeded those savings, and CBO now projects budget deficits to be 1.3% larger than it did in August.
CBO projects 2.2% economic growth in 2020 and 1.9% in 2021, falling to 1.7% after that, and the forecast calls for the unemployment rate to begin rising in 2022 but to remain below historical averages. The jobless rate was 3.5% in December.
The agency, a nonpartisan arm of Congress, projects that consumer spending will remain strong and that business investment will rebound.
U.S. Trade Deficit Widened To Record $71.1 Billion In February
The U.S. trade deficit widened in February to a record high as solid household and business demand kept imports running ahead of shipments to overseas customers.
The gap in trade of both goods and services increased to $71.1 billion in February from a revised $67.8 billion a month earlier, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $70.5 billion shortfall.
A decline in exports exceeded a drop in the value of imports during the month as severe winter weather disrupted two-way trade.
The U.S. deficit has been widening fairly consistently on a monthly basis since reaching a more than three-year low in February 2020. Merchandise imports have been pouring into the nation’s ports, leading to shipping container shortages that have driven up freight rates and left domestic producers scrambling at a time when inventories are lean.
Global supply chains were put to the test in late March after a massive container ship blocked the Suez Canal for days, forcing carriers and other vessels to weigh costly and time-consuming voyages around Africa.
Total imports decreased 0.7% to $258.3 billion, while exports fell 2.6% to $187.3 billion.
Meantime, a global shortage of semiconductors has been causing automakers like Ford Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. to scale back production, further impacting global trade.
The value of imported semiconductors was little changed at $5 billion in February, while exports of the chips dropped more than $400 million to $4.8 billion.
Imports of motor vehicles and consumer goods declined in February, while the value of industrial supplies, that include oil, increased.
The merchandise-trade deficit rose about 3% to $88 billion, while the nation’s surplus in services trade fell to $16.9 billion, the smallest since 2012.
The U.S. goods trade shortfall with China widened in February to a three-month high of $30.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Adjusted for inflation, the merchandise-trade gap widened to a record $99.1 billion in February from $96.1 billion.
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