Can Bitcoin Become a Dominant (Reserve) Currency?
Proponents says there’s a consumer need for an alternative currency, while detractors say cryptocurrencies will remain in the hands of mostly speculators. Can Bitcoin Become a Dominant (Reserve) Currency?
Bitcoin turns 10 at the end of the month. And over the past decade, there has been no shortage of headlines about the inevitable rise—or the inevitable fall—of it and other cryptocurrencies.
Along with all the talk came a meteoric increase in bitcoin’s price, culminating late last year. Bitcoin’s price soared nearly 1,332% in 2017, hitting a high of $19,783.21 on Dec. 17. Since then, however, bitcoin’s price has plummeted more than 66% to around $6,436, as of Oct. 19.
The price gyrations have come as the cryptocurrency is getting increased scrutiny.
In August, the Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine proposals for bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Before that, the SEC rejected, for a second time, a bitcoin ETF proposed by entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.
Getting approval for a bitcoin ETF could go a long way toward helping the crypto market attract mainstream retail investors, but the SEC has concluded that there isn’t enough transparency in the cryptocurrency markets to be sure prices aren’t being manipulated. The Wall Street Journal recently reported how bots are manipulating the price of bitcoin on crypto exchanges.
A report from the New York Attorney General’s office in September shared some of the SEC’s concerns.
Meanwhile, Fidelity Investments announced last week that it will store and trade digital currencies, including bitcoin, for hedge funds and other professional investors.
And bitcoin is a hit in developing and frontier markets—where the cryptocurrency is often viewed as a haven from political and economic turmoil and a way of navigating financial obstacles, including a lack of conventional banking services.
Amid all this, the debate over the long-term prospects for bitcoin as a viable and dominant currency continues.
YES: There’s A Need For Alternatives To Today’s Currencies
By Lisa Ellis
Bitcoin, approaching its 10th birthday on Oct. 31, is having a tough 2018. As of late October, the price of the cryptocurrency is down about 54% year to date, and has not cleared $10,000 since early March. And it has suffered a series of rejections and delays by the Securities and Exchange Commission in attempts to launch bitcoin ETFs.
The 2018 setbacks are, in my view, the normal growing pains of a developing technology, and bitcoin will prevail. The cryptocurrency has a long-term role in society as a universal, alternative currency—functioning both as a medium of payment and store of value, in economies where the fiat currency is unstable or subject to manipulation.
First, the need, and demand, for an alternative to fiat currency exists. Data from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook show that 50% of the world’s population lives in one of 98 countries that have had at least one year in the past 10—since bitcoin has existed—when inflation was above 10%.
In countries with high inflation, or an otherwise unstable fiat currency, people can’t trust that the government-backed fiat currency will hold its value, and they seek an alternative, such as gold, traditionally. I believe bitcoin will fill this need in the future.
Consumer-payments companies, such as Visa, Mastercard, PayPal and Alipay, are working to digitize cash in order to drive out corruption and improve global financial inclusion. But even they are reliant on the stability of the underlying fiat currency. As bitcoin emerges as an alternative to unstable fiat currencies, I believe you’ll be able to make a transaction on a credit card in bitcoin, just as you can today in dollars, euros, yen and other currencies.
Bitcoin enables secure, arm’s-length transactions between two unknown parties, the bar required to function as a payment system. And bitcoin is decentralized and open-source, enabling it to morph and adapt to usage requirements organically.
Bearish views on bitcoin rarely argue with these design characteristics, however. They typically focus on current limitations, arguing that bitcoin will never achieve the requisite level of stability, transaction capacity, security, ubiquity of merchant acceptance, governmental blessing, and trust to function as an alternative currency and payment system.
Slowly But Surely, Though, Bitcoin Is Addressing These Limitations. Some Examples:
• Stability: The December 2017 launch of bitcoin futures on the Cboe and CME enables short selling of bitcoin, which is essential to reducing volatility over the long term.
• Capacity: An oft-quoted statistic by bitcoin bears: The bitcoin network processes only seven transactions a second, while the Visa network, for instance, does about 65,000. So, bitcoin is not usable for making payment transactions day-to-day, because the system can’t handle the volume. This is currently true, but keep an eye on the nascent, but promising, Lightning Network initiative, currently in test mode. If it is successful, bitcoin’s processing capacity would jump to thousands of transactions a second, making the system much more viable for making payments.
• Security: Perhaps the biggest Achilles’ heel of bitcoin is security. Not security of the network itself. Rather, securely storing the cryptocurrency so it can be readily accessible, while still safe from hackers. It’s a tricky one, hence the recent high-profile crypto heists (e.g., Coincheck, Coinrail).
Progress is being made, however: Dozens of offline hardware wallets custom-designed to enable individuals to securely (and anonymously) store cryptocurrencies are available on Amazon for less than $100. Earlier this year, Noble Bitcoin launched a fully-insured cryptocurrency custodian service, using a Texas-based cold storage location that already houses gold, silver and platinum.
• Merchant Aceptance: Dozens of bitcoin merchant processing services, which enable merchants to take bitcoin, already exist (BitPay, BitPOS, Coinbase, etc.). While low today, as consumer demand and comfort with the system grow, merchant acceptance will naturally follow.
• Governmental Blessing: Despite the theoretical threat it poses to fiat currencies (such as limiting a government’s ability to enact monetary policy), few countries outright ban bitcoin. Many major countries—including the U.S., Japan, Australia and many in Europe—are sorting through how to appropriately classify it: a commodity vs. currency vs. security. This classification, I believe, will establish the regulatory and legal frameworks for cryptocurrencies, which then will enable secondary services, like insurance, which help build consumer trust.
While the price of bitcoin is having a tough 2018, quietly, in the background, the bitcoin system is making steady progress toward becoming a viable, universal alternative currency.
11 Years Ago Today Satoshi Nakamoto Published the Bitcoin White Paper
Today, Oct. 31, marks eleven years since the publication of the Bitcoin white paper by the still-mysterious person or group pseudonymously identified as Satoshi Nakamoto.
A Revolutionary Text
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System — published on Oct. 31, 2008 — outlined a tamper-proof, decentralized peer-to-peer protocol that could track and verify digital transactions, prevent double-spending and generate a transparent record for anyone to inspect in nearly real-time.
The protocol represented a cryptographically-secured system — based on a Proof-of-Work algorithm — in which Bitcoins (BTC) are “mined” for a reward by individual nodes and then verified by other nodes in a decentralized network.
This system contained the possibility of overcoming the need for intermediaries such as banks and financial institutions to facilitate and audit transactions — a major disruption to a siloed, monopolized field of centralized financial power.
304033233% All-Time-Price Appreciation
Eleven years on, Bitcoin is consistently setting new records for its network hash rate — a measure of the overall computing power involved in validating transactions on the blockchain at any given time.
More power and participation establishes greater network security and attests to widespread recognition of the profitability potential of Bitcoin mining.
As of the middle of this month, network data revealed that since the creation of the very first block on the Bitcoin blockchain on Jan 3, 2009 — known in more technical language as its “genesis block” — miners have received combined revenue of just under $15 billion.
The figure includes both block rewards — “new” bitcoins paid to miners for validating a block of transactions — as well as transaction fees, which broke the $1 billion mark this week.
Bitcoin’s first-ever recorded trading price was noted on Mar. 17, 2010 — on the now-defunct trading platform bitcoinmarket.com, at a value of $0.003.
The cryptocurrency’s appreciation thus stands at a staggering 304033233% as of press time, with Bitcoin currently trading at $9,120.
As of this August, 85% of Bitcoin’s supply in circulation had been mined — leaving just 3.15 million new coins for the future.
Eleven years on, the mystery enshrouding the white paper’s author remains as impenetrable as ever. Those both within and without the crypto community began attempting to determine Nakamoto’s identity as early as October 2011, just a few months after the mysterious figure first went silent.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Names Bitcoin As Possible Reserve Currency
Bitcoin could be part of a basket of reserve alternatives to the U.S. dollar, according to Stephen Harper.
Stephen Harper, who served as prime minister of Canada for nine years, says there may be a place for Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies as part of a basket of reserve currencies to replace the dollar.
In an interview with investment service Cambridge House’s Jay Martin at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference today, Harper said the possibility of the U.S. dollar being replaced could only come from a large currency like the Euro or Chinese yuan. He expressed his doubts either of them would be a viable alternative currency given the long-term uncertainty over the value of the Euro and the “arbitrary measures” the Chinese government would take regarding the value of the yuan:
“It’s hard to see what the alternative is to the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Other than gold, Bitcoin, a whole basket of things […] I think you’ll see the number of things that people use as reserves will expand, but the U.S. dollar will still be the bulk of it.”
The former prime minister added that he thought central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, were to some degree “inevitable” but would likely be subject to monetary policy around the world. Harper said he was concerned about central banks becoming “kind of a general banker” rather than just a financial monitor, something that could affect the rollout of any CBDC:
“Ultimately, if you have a digital currency and the purpose of the central bank is to control inflation and create a stable currency and priceability, then digital currency is just kind of an evolution of the marketplace,” said Harper. “But if it’s part of a series of what I think are wild experiments as to the role of central banking, then it worries me a lot.”
Harper served as the prime minister of Canada from 2006 until 2015. Crypto and blockchain adoption in the country has expanding significantly since his departure, with Canada getting its first regulated crypto exchange in September. According to Timothy Lane, the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, the bank is also moving along in its development of a CBDC.
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