Annual January 3rd “Proof of Keys” Celebration of The Genesis Block! (#GotBitcoin?)
Annual January 3rd “Proof of Keys” Celebration of The Genesis Block! (#GotBitcoin?)
Trace Mayer: Get Your Bitcoin Off Exchanges in ‘Proof of Keys’ 2020
Bitcoin (BTC) could be set to disappear from exchanges en masse in two months’ time as the second annual Proof of Keys event takes shape.
In a Twitter post on Nov. 5, Proof of Keys’ organizer, Bitcoin Knowledge podcast host Trace Mayer, appealed to spread the message prior to the event on Jan. 3.
Mayer Challenges Bitcoin HODLers
Now in its second year, Proof of Keys challenges Bitcoin HODLers to take control of their funds and stop using trusted third parties.
Under the slogan “Not your keys; not your Bitcoin,” Mayer highlights the still frequent exchange implosions and seizures as an argument for investors to control access to funds themselves.
“A lot of people just don’t want people holding their own private keys and doing their own network consensus,” he said in a promotional video recorded for the 2019 Proof of Keys.
Participants Are Encouraged To Add Their Support As
part of their Twitter handle in advance. On Jan. 3, the date of the Bitcoin genesis block, they then withdraw all cryptocurrency funds from exchange wallets.
“Prove Trustworthiness And Consensus”
As Cointelegraph reported, novice cryptocurrency holders face a daunting task when selecting how best to store their wealth.
Even the best-known exchanges remain open to attack, while alternatives such as hardware wallets also continue to see mixed reviews as competition intensifies.
“This simple exercise costs little, perhaps a few transaction fees, yet proves possession and strengthens network consensus. Companies and exchanges must prove their trustworthiness and consensus,” part of Proof of Keys’ official website description explains.
HODLers of Last Resort
Proof of Keys:
Every January 3rd the Bitcoin community HODLers of Last Resort participate in a Proof of Keys celebration by demanding and taking possession of all bitcoins held by trusted third parties on their behalf.
By demanding and taking possession of their assets, individuals will learn real fast with blockchain proof whether they are part of the elite HODLers or not. Proof of Keys is the annual HODLer initiation.
What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.
Every year HODLers celebrate with a test of trust. HODLers test people, exchanges, corporations and other services. Get withdrawals limits ready. Plus, one can easily forget where small amounts of bitcoins are. Remember and find them. Most importantly, HODLers can test themselves.
On January 3rd HODLers everywhere celebrate Bitcoin by withdrawing all their bitcoins to wallets they control that perform network consensus and use best practices like the Glacier Protocol.
- Bitcoin Core for network consensus; who controls Bitcoin Core
- Armory for private keys
- Glacier Protocol for operational procedures
- Purism [a Purism complaint] for hardware
Play Stupid Games
Win Stupid Prizes:
Those who are ignorant of or ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Learn from the experience of others.
- Individual threw away hardrive with about 7,500 BTC
- Individual threw away iMac with about 50 BTC
- Individual imported about 335 BCH of private keys to scammy fork wallet
- Bitpay fraudulently labels consensus rule change an ‘Upgrade’
The signatories of this agreement wrongly believe that the currency created by adopting this contentious hard fork will eventually become Bitcoin. Therefore storing any BTC on services such as Coinbase, Bitpay and Xapo is strongly not recommended. By storing BTC on these services, you could find that after the hard fork, your BTC has been renamed to something else or replaced entirely with the new altcoin.
HODLers Who Celebrate
Proof of Keys:
Want to show your support? Perhaps add the [Jan/3➞₿🔑∎] to your Twitter? Or fill out the below short form.
And please help spread the word!
This simple exercise costs little, perhaps a few transaction fees, yet proves possession and strengthens network consensus. Companies and exchanges must prove their trustworthiness and consensus. Many HODLers have extensive war experience with BIP148, UASF, NO2X, etc.
You can consider Proof of Keys a combat readiness drill. Hopefully, it will help prevent further annoying skirmishes with those who despise individuals empowered with monetary sovereignty.
- HODLers risk nothing.
- HODLers do not trust.
- HODLers verify.
- HODLers are in control and can prove it on the blockchain.
You Think You Own Bitcoins?
Then join the HODLers of Last Resort and PROVE IT!
Remember, remember the 3rd of January! Please help spread the word.
Then on the 4th of January there can be a return to business as usual with renewed confidence based on proof of keys.
In assessing the soundness of their [trusted third parties], [HODLers] must therefore apply a stress test to all participants in the chain, and must contemplate a catastrophe loss occurring during a very unfavorable economic environment.
“After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Warren Buffett
[HODLers of Last Resort] retain our risks and depend on no one. And whatever the world’s problems, [HODLer’s of Last Resort transactions will confirm].
Interviews about the
Proof of Keys Annual Celebration
Articles about the
Proof of Keys Annual Celebration
Bitcoin.com – Support grows
Bitcoin Exchange Guide
BEG – Support grows
Just Learn Bitcoin
Ethereum World News
Coinbase Halts Trading; POK Suspicions
Companies that Celebrate
Proof of Keys
Individual HODLers Who Celebrate
Proof of Keys:
Omar Bahn – CryptO
The Bit Generation
Armin Van Bitcoin
Crypto Scam Central
Saj le Great
Gary Palmer Jr.
Freedom of One
The Four Satoshis
Too Crypto To Quit
Hip Hop Crypto$
CashFlow Queen Kenet’ra
Crypto & Dirt
Eril Gün Ezerel
Book of Eli
Greg DaPonte Jr.
Gustavo Diaz de Leon
My Two Satoshis
Marcel Trader Bitcoin
Yuri De Gaia
Saj le Great
Sir Grant Fleming
Crypto Pura Vida
Just Learn Bitcoin
BTC Daily News
Dragon On Crypto
Crypto Revolution FR
Savage Santa Miner
Bits and Tokens
‘Don’t Leave Your Coins In Exchanges,’ Says Crypto Entrepreneur Who Lost All His Assets
Speaking today at BlockShow Asia 2019, Genesis Block HK co-founder Clement Ip shared a negative personal experience during a panel on how Asian trading firms make profits. His company is a blockchain venture capital firm, crypto quant hedge fund, and mining company focused on investing in blockchain projects.
Sharing the stage with two other speakers — Kyle Davies of Three Arrows Capital and Joshua Ho of QCP Capital — Ip came out with his sad story. He said he lost “a lot of coins” due to an exchange hack, and his takeaway lesson was clear:
“Don’t leave your assets on exchanges. Don’t be lazy. I’ve been into it and learned a good lesson.”
During the same panel, Davies and Ho also discussed crypto regulation in Asia, how it might affect the market, and how it will affect the crypto ecosystem at large. “Regulation in Asia has been a move in the right direction so far,” said Davies.
Exchange hacking is nothing new to the crypto ecosystem. Some of the biggest companies in the space have faced issues here this year, including market leader Binance.
Not Your Keys: 92% of Institutional Investors Keep Crypto on Exchanges
Cryptocurrency institutional investors overwhelmingly keep their wealth on exchanges despite the inherent security risks, new data claims.
Compiled by cryptocurrency exchange Binance on Nov. 22, a survey asked 76 institutional investors who used its platform about their trading habits.
Exchange Storage “Most Popular Choice”
The survey was part of Binance’s Institutional Market Insights research, which is now in its second edition.
Among the most surprising results was that 92% of participants chose to keep their crypto — Bitcoin (BTC), stablecoins and others — with trusted third parties, and not under their own control.
The figure dwarfs much safer alternatives such as hardware wallets and other cold wallets.
“Exchanges remain as the most popular choice for cryptoasset storage amongst our institutional and VIP clients at 92.1%,” Binance summarized. Researchers added:
“When moving to self-storage, cold wallets are the second most favored choice, given their improved safety and control. Third-party custody services were the least popular option at 2.6%.”
The 76 investors cannot be said to have significant exposure in terms of capital — over 50% had total crypto holdings of under 10 units of a coin. 10 BTC currently equals around $72,000.
Demands to take back control of crypto
As Cointelegraph reported, investors face significantly increased risk of loss and theft of coins if they remain in wallets to which they do not control the private keys.
Exchanges, including Binance, continue to see hacks this year, while regulatory scrutiny can also see funds locked up without notice until an account owner provides personal identity data.
Efforts to make investors aware of the need to control their money are mounting. On Jan. 3, the second annual Proof of Keys event will challenge all Bitcoin holders to remove their funds from third-party wallets.
The brainchild of advocate Trace Mayer, preparations for the move, which coincides with the anniversary of the Bitcoin genesis block, are already a common sight on social media.
Exchanges Hold More Bitcoin Than Ever As Coinbase Wallet Nears 1M BTC
United States cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase will soon hold a million Bitcoins (BTC) in its cold wallets in a controversial first for the industry.
According to data from news and information resource Longhash released on Jan. 23, Coinbase’s cold wallets contained around 970,000 BTC ($8 billion) as of Jan. 1.
Coinbase Weeks Away From 1 Million BTC
If current growth continues, the company will reach the 1,000,000 BTC mark by February.
The trend underscores growing tendencies to interact with Bitcoin via exchanges, with the Coinbase figures including both private and institutional investors.
As Cointelegraph reported, recent attempts to assess institutional habits when it comes to Bitcoin storage already firmly pointed to exchanges being investors’ chosen method.
Now, despite the myriad exchange hacks and other dangers of trusting third parties with their cryptocurrency wealth, it appears that consumers in general still prefer not to control their coins themselves.
“More individuals and institutions need to learn how to self custody,” Tales from the Crypt Podcast host Marty Bent summarized in an analysis of the Coinbase figures on Thursday.
Proof Of Keys Falls On Deaf Ears
With 30 million users registered since launch, Longhash notes that Coinbase is by far the exchange with the largest Bitcoin holdings, but the majority of major trading platforms are seeing their balances increase.
Cryptocurrency proponents have long been irked by the phenomenon, which flies in the face of Bitcoin as sovereign money — trusting someone else with one’s wealth is the equivalent of endorsing central banking.
A dedicated effort to inspire Bitcoin holders to remove their coins from exchanges and place them in wallets to which they control the private keys is now in its second year.
Despite the publicity effort behind Proof of Keys, however, analysis of exchange wallets, which form several of the richest Bitcoin addresses in the world, shows that the most recent event on Jan. 3 did not spark mass withdrawals.
“Coinbase’s apparent dominance and steady growth may be because it attracts a large share of long-term/institutional investors, who are less concerned with short term price swings,” Longhash added in a suggestion that institutions trust exchanges with custody.
People Are Removing The Most Bitcoin From Exchanges Since 2018 Bottom
Exchange reserves hit an 18-month bottom while miners keep selling despite lower revenues after the halving.
Bitcoin (BTC) is failing to retake $10,000 due to a fresh wave of miner selling, fresh data suggests ten days after the halving.
Compiled by monitoring resource CryptoQuant, the figures show that over the past five days, combined outflows from BTC mining pools spiked 600% — from 1,066 BTC to 7,426 BTC on May 20.
Bitcoin Miners Sell Into $10,000
The change mimics that seen in the week before the halving on May 11, when miner outflows increased from around 2,100 BTC to a high of nearly 5,000 BTC on May 10.
CryptoQuant’s data also confirms a correlation between increased miner selling and Bitcoin price bottoms.
Sales in the week before the halving coincided with Bitcoin’s “pre-halving dump” of over $1,200, while this week also saw negative price performance — from $9,950 on May 18 to press time levels of $9,340.
Sustained offloading would have a negative knock-on effect on Bitcoin price growth, slowing the upward trend to keep markets more averse to five figures.
Exchange Reserves Keep Plummeting
Beyond outflows, meanwhile, change is afoot on exchanges. According to CryptoQuant, total exchange holdings fell dramatically on March 12 during Bitcoin’s crash but kept falling as the price recovered.
As of Wednesday, reserves across 17 major exchanges totaled 1.18 million BTC — the lowest value since November 2018. At that time, BTC/USD traded at near its lows of $3,100.
A lack of interest in trading Bitcoin delivers clear signals on market sentiment, but the change in correlation with price-performance puts the current situation at odds with previous behavior.
A Record Number of Bitcoin Were Recently Withdrawn From Exchanges
On July 8, a record number of Bitcoin were removed from custodial exchanges, with Coinbase leading the charge.
July 8 set a year-to-date record for the number of net Bitcoin (BTC) withdrawn from custodial exchanges. The onslaught was led by Coinbase.
A Bullish Sign?
Yesterday, 20,660 more Bitcoin were removed from exchanges than deposited according to data from Glassnode. This represents 2020’s biggest daily outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges — a behavior pattern that is typically considered bullish.
Coinbase Leads The Exodus
Interestingly, Coinbase alone experienced a net outflow of 20,787 BTC — higher than the total for all exchanges. Discounting Coinbase, other tracked exchanges had a small uptick.
Although Coinbase experienced negative Bitcoin outflows, it recorded almost a thousand more deposits than withdrawals. Since overall, it experienced negative outflows, this means that the average withdrawal amount was higher than the average deposit amount. It is possible that the average withdrawal amount was skewed by one or more large withdrawals made by its custodial clients.
Regardless of the cause behind this latest Bitcoin outflow, the trend towards users removing their assets from custodial exchanges continues.
Bitcoin Held by Exchanges Drops To 2019 Bull-Run Levels, Demand Rising
Bitcoin balances on major exchanges drop to levels not seen since last summer’s bull run as demand and BTC price are on the rise.
As July comes to a close, the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) held by major cryptocurrency exchanges has reached its lowest level since late May 2019. At that time, Bitcoin’s price was around $8,000 before continuing toward its 2019 high of $12,967 on July 11, 2019.
Roughly 10% Of Bitcoin Held By Exchanges
The Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges has been dropping significantly since mid-March 2020 following the Black Thursday crash on March 12 and subsequent recovery.
There are 2.64 million BTC collectively held on exchanges as of July 29, according to data from Glassnode, a market and on-chain analytics resource. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price continues to climb and recently hitting a yearly high of $11,400
Lower Selling Pressure Plus Tether Inflows
Additionally, markets analytics firm, Arcane Research, noted that decreasing balances on exchanges suggest users are showing more interest in holding their Bitcoin for the long term by withdrawing their BTC from exchanges to control their own private keys directly.
This trend means less selling pressure from BTC holders and comes just two months after the 2020 halving that reduced the amount of newly mined Bitcoin in half.
Coupled with the recent increase in Tether (USDT) exchange inflows, which have reached their 2020 high yesterday, and overall supply that’s now over $10 billion, the number of digital dollars waiting on the sidelines to potentially buy BTC is bigger than ever.
Institutional And Retail Interest In Bitcoin Returns
Bitcoin has been looking increasingly attractive lately given its store of value attributes in the face of the inflating U.S. dollar. With yet another COVID-19 stimulus package and what seems to be an overheated stock market, many traders are now seeking the safety of hard assets such as gold and increasingly Bitcoin.
Specifically, institutional interest in Bitcoin seems to be picking up at lightspeed as both Bakkt and CME futures have posted record numbers for two consecutive days in volume and open interest. Additionally, Grayscale has added another $1 billion to its funds in just 11 days, making the total AUM over $5.1 billion across their entire family of products.
As for the retail market, records have also been broken as Deribit, the leading Bitcoin Options exchange, posted record volumes on July 27 with $527 million in traded Bitcoin options.
Therefore, Bitcoin may be finally ready for another major bull market cycle as the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges decreases at the same time as retail and institutional interest appear to be picking up.
This confluence of bullish factors has led to numerous bullish forecasts from industry experts with some even predicting that this new bull cycle may be much bigger this time around.
“The next Bitcoin bull run will be dramatically different,” said Gemini founder Cameron Winklevoss on July 29.
“Today, there’s exponentially more capital, human capital, infrastructure, and high-quality projects than in 2017. Not to mention the very real specter of inflation that all fiat regimes face going forward. Buckle up!”
Bitcoin Whales Bought The Dip, Data Shows As $1.2B Leaves Exchanges
Investors are in no mood to sell as the number of Bitcoins held in exchange wallets “falls off a cliff” this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) exchanges lost 100,000 BTC during the weekend’s price crash, data shows — and that’s a bullish sign.
Figures from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant on Aug. 5 tracking exchange balances show a dramatic drop occurring just after BTC/USD shed $1,200 in minutes.
BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Major Lows
Prior to the turbulent weekend’s trading, Bitcoin balances on exchanges totalled approximately 2.49 million BTC ($29.2 billion). Afterwards, the ledger fell to 2.39 million BTC ($28 billion) — the lowest ever recorded by CryptoQuant.
According to popular analyst Cole Garner, the change is yet another hint that the overall mood among investors is extremely optimistic.
“The amount of #Bitcoin held on exchanges just dropped off a cliff,” he wrote on Twitter on Thursday.
“It happened two days ago – whales bought up the selloff. $BTC flowing out of exchanges is *bullish*”
As Cointelegraph reported, decreasing numbers of coins held on exchanges suggests that investors plan to hold BTC, not sell or trade it at short notice. Garner agrees.
“The only reason to take them off exchange is because you intend to not sell them anytime soon,” he added.
Binance May Need Fewer Hot Wallets
Whales — those holding conspicuously large amounts of Bitcoin — seemed to have anticipated the pullback far earlier, as coins made their way back to exchanges a week earlier.
Commenting on the trend, CryptoQuant offered an alternative but no less bullish explanation involving major exchange Binance.
“68101 BTC transferred from Binance to a newly created wallet, and not clear whether it’s their new cold wallet or the 3rd party custody,” the firm responded to Garner.
“Even if it’s Binance’s, it could be a bull signal since Binance decided to reduce the portion of hot wallets in charge of user withdrawals.”
BTC/USD was heading towards $11,800 at press time, as the remnants of the crash dissipated and $12,000 became a target once again.
Earlier this week, Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the next correction may be the final opportunity to buy BTC at a discount.
Bitcoin Balances At A 21 Month Low As Exchange Exodus Continues
Bitfinex specifically lost 2/3 of its balances within the same timeframe.
According to data from Glassnode, the exchanges it tracks currently hold 2.6 million Bitcoin. That is the lowest this amount has been since November 2018.
The trend toward users withdrawing their funds from the custodial exchanges first manifested itself right after Black Thursday. Since that time, approximately 300,000 BTC has left exchanges in what appears to be a mass exodus. This may be considered a bullish indicator, as it might imply that users do not intend to sell their assets anytime soon. The recent movement coincides with the recent bull run which saw the price of Bitcoin recover from below $5,000 to almost $12,000.
Not all exchanges have suffered equally, however. Some have been hit a lot harder than others. For instance, Bitfinex held almost 200,000 BTC in its vaults prior to Black Thursday — Currently, only about 60,000 BTC remain.
Bitcoin Low Exchange Balance Looks Bullish But Chart Looks Bearish As $11K Nears
There’s a degree of transparency in cryptocurrencies that doesn’t exist in traditional markets like stocks and bonds: Thanks to data that’s easily extracted from blockchains, everyone can see everyone else moving their money around.
That means traders can keep an eye on exchange wallets to gauge whether investors and crypto miners are getting their bitcoin into position for a possible sale — or taking balances down from the exchanges in anticipation of holding for the longer term.
The latter might be what’s happening now, CoinDesk’s Muyao Shen reported Monday. Total balances of bitcoin on major exchanges has hit its lowest levels since November 2018. It could be an indication of bullishness among bitcoin traders.
“There’s no reason to sell now,” Mike Alfred, CEO of Digital Assets Data, told Shen in a phone interview. “Why would you be selling when you’re at the beginning of a wave of potential corporate treasuries and institutional investors coming in?”
Another interpretation, according to Arcane Research, is that traders are taking their bitcoin off exchanges to deploy them in the decentralized finance sector, known as DeFi. Juicy returns can be obtained from tokenizing crypto assets and depositing them as collateral in semi-automated, blockchain-based trading and lending platforms.
As CoinDesk reported earlier this week, tokenized bitcoin has become one of the largest assets on DeFi. Currently, there are more than 108,000 BTC worth some $1.1 billion minted from seven issuers, according to Dune Analytics.
That might be another bullish sign.
“Bitcoin maximalists would decry the use of bitcoin on Ethereum, arguing that it isn’t ‘real’ bitcoin,” David Derhy, an analyst for the cryptocurrency trading platform eToro, wrote Monday in an email. “I view this development as positive for the sector, as it highlights an evolution within the industry.”
Whatever the case, it’s all there to see.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Down $5B In 2020 Hints At Whale Accumulation
Bitcoin exchange reserves dropped by $5 billion in the past year, showing signs of accumulation.
The Bitcoin (BTC) reserves of exchanges are continuing to drop, which suggests retail investors and whales might be accumulating.
According to data from CryptoQuant, all exchanges’ reserves dropped to 2.4 million BTC, which is equivalent to $25 billion. In contrast, in October 2019, exchanges had around 2.8 million BTC, currently worth $30 billion.
Bitcoin reserves on all exchanges throughout the past year.
There Is A Clear Decrease In Selling Pressure From Whales And Retail Investors
The reserves of exchanges increase when investors deposit Bitcoin. Typically, deposits or inflows are considered selling pressure, because traders have to send BTC to exchanges in order to sell.
Hence, when exchange inflows decline, it often signifies that the appetite to sell BTC by investors is declining.
Another chart from CryptoQuant depicts the trend of net inflows of Bitcoin into exchanges in the same timeframe.
Throughout the past two months, net inflows have generally remained in the negative 20,000 BTC level. Net inflows sharply dropped in recent weeks, specifically as BTC sharply rebounded from $10,300 to above $10,700.
On Sep. 26, Cointelegraph reported that large whale clusters emerged at $10,407. Whale clusters form when whales accumulate new BTC and do not touch the new holdings. Clusters usually indicate that whales are beginning to accumulate in a new area.
Considering the accumulation trend and the resilience of BTC above $10,000, investors likely have little appetite to sell.
Due to the confluence of the lacking willingness to sell BTC at current prices and consistent accumulation, BTC is on track for a strong quarterly close.
Another possible reason behind the steep fall in exchange net flows might have been large-scale hacks. Most recently, KuCoin was reportedly hacked for $150 million after the private keys of hot wallets were compromised.
BTC On Track For Its Second-Best Quarterly Close
According to Skew, Bitcoin is en route to see its second-best quarterly close. BTC closed the second quarter at around $9,140. It would have to stay above $10,600 to secure the second-best quarterly close.
There are several reasons behind the strong performance of Bitcoin throughout the third quarter. Most notably, BTC rallied in tandem with gold and stocks after the U.S. approved a stimulus bill.
The initial kick start of a market-wide recovery from the stimulus, combined with a low-interest-rate environment, created a favorable macro backdrop. The analysts at Skew said:
“One more day to go and still looking like second best quarterly close for #bitcoin but it’s a close call with Q2 2020.”
Throughout the year’s end, there are three key fundamental and macro factors that could buoy Bitcoin’s sentiment, namely the weakening U.S. dollar, the prospect of a stimulus package and vaccines.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is continuing to show weakness against reserve currencies, in the likes of the yen, yuan and franc as the Fed has doubled down on its average inflation targeting strategy.
But while the prolonged weakness of the dollar might put the U.S. stock market at risk of underperforming against other markets, it should directly benefit Bitcoin and gold, which are priced against the USD.
Five Mega Exchanges Hold 10% Of Bitcoin’s Entire Supply
The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to be dominated by a handful of platforms and companies.
Roughly 10.6% of Bitcoin’s (BTC) circulating supply is currently held on just five centralized exchanges, according to data published by Chain.info.
More than 1.96 million BTC is currently held between the major exchanges Coinbase, Huobi, Binance, OKEx, and Kraken.
Likely owing to its custody services, Coinbase holds by far the most, with 944,904 BTC currently spread across approximately 4.39 million different wallet addresses.
Huobi ranks second with 323,665 BTC held in roughly 901,600 unique wallets, followed by Binance with 289,961 BTC across nearly 2.7 million addresses. OKEx has 276,184 BTC in 339,000 wallets, while Kraken holds 126,510 Bitcoin among 672,000 addresses.
The next seven exchanges — Bitflyer, BIttrex, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Coincheck, Gate.io, and Bitstamp — hold a further 210,000 Bitcoins between them.
The data shows that many users still prefer to accept security risks associated with holding a significant portion of their holdings on centralized exchanges in spite of cryptocurrency’s fundamental ethos of decentralization and mantra of “not your keys, not your Bitcoin”.
The percentage of the Bitcoin supply held on the five centralized exchanges may actually add up to significantly more than 10%, with Chainalysis recently estimating that the 3.7 million BTC that have not moved in more than five years are likely lost. If that’s true, then nearly 15% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently custodied across five centralized platforms.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Plunge As BitMEX Bleeds BTC
Bitcoin exchange reserves are continuously plummeting as analysts pinpoint the trend to a potential shortage of sellers.
Bitcoin (BTC) exchange reserves are continuously plummeting as analysts pinpoint the trend to a shortage of sellers. Since the March crash, the reserves on exchanges rapidly fell from 2,950,000 BTC to 2,700,000 BTC.
Within merely seven months, a 250,000 BTC fall in exchange reserves signifies a $2.85 billion decline. Behind the steep trend could be two major factors: a decline in sellers and lower trust toward exchanges.
Is The Number Of Bitcoin Sellers Dropping Amidst An Accumulation Phase?
Analysts mainly attribute the sustained drop in Bitcoin exchange reserves to an overall shortage of sellers in the market.
As retail sellers refrain from selling BTC at current prices, institutions are also acquiring more BTC. The simultaneous drop in selling pressure and an increase in buyer demand is an optimistic trend for Bitcoin.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Oddgems” said the data shows Bitcoin is likely moving from exchanges to non-custodial wallets. If so, it indicates that investors are moving their funds to hold for a longer period. He said:
“More and more #Bitcoin getting out from exchanges and most probably being transferred to non-custodial wallets. This suggests slightly lower liquidity and lower selling pressure going forward.”
Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, echoed the stance.
He emphasized that BTC outflows from exchanges are growing as cash reserves from institutions are flowing into Bitcoin. He noted:
“To be honest, more and more $BTC going from exchanges towards cold wallet storage. Big listed companies allocating cash reserves to $BTC. Is incredibly bullish.”
The confluence of stagnant retail outflows from Bitcoin and the consistent demand from institutions buoy the general sentiment around BTC.
Dan Tapiero, the co-founder of 10T Holdings, similarly said that “shortages of Bitcoin” is possible due to the surging institutional interest.
Other Supply Metrics Indicate Higher HODLer Activity
According to Glassnode, a large portion of the Bitcoin supply is stored in “accumulation addresses.” These addresses represent users who never moved BTC from their wallets, who are likely storing BTC for the long term.
When “HODLing” activity is high, which refers to holding onto BTC for prolonged periods, it typically indicates the start of an accumulation phase. Glassnode said:
“Bitcoin accumulation has been on a constant upwards trend for months. 2.6M $BTC (14% of supply) are currently held in accumulation addresses. Accumulation addresses are defined as addresses that have at least 2 incoming txs and have never spent BTC.”
The positive fundamental on-chain metrics supplement the favorable technical structure of Bitcoin. Despite various events that could have applied selling pressure on BTC, including the BitMEX probe and OKEx withdrawal suspension, BTC remains above $11,400.
The BitMEX and OKEx controversy also led exchange reserves to decline sharply, possibly spooking traders. Although BitMEX swiftly processed withdrawals and OKEx wallets show no outflows, the regulatory uncertainty was sufficient to cause exchange reserves to slip.
In early October, technical analysts pinpointed the $11,100 to $11,300 range as a critical short-term resistance range. BTC has been relatively stable above the said range, which technically is a positive sign for renewed momentum.
For The First Time Since 2018 Bitcoin Balances On Exchanges Fell Below 2.5M
Bitcoin’s balance on three popular exchanges decreased by 390k BTC over the past 9 months.
On October 20, 2020, the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) held at major exchanges fell below 2.5 million BTC for the first time in two years.
Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev opined to Cointelegraph that this trend is driven by the world finally realizing that only Bitcoin offers sound monetary policy:
“[People are] slowly are realizing what some of us have known for a while — BTC is the only sound monetary policy right now and you cannot afford to depart from the best performing asset of the decade.”
He also noted that the community is resorting more to self-custody solutions, including platforms like Nexo, where they can “tax-efficiently borrow against their assets rather than selling them.” Cointelegraph noted yesterday that the Bitcoin supply is currently diffused more than ever.
Alex Mashinsky, co-founder of the Celsius crypto lending platform, told Cointelegraph that the exodus will likely continue unless exchanges begin offering better terms to their customers:
“As long as exchanges refuse to give their clients more they will leave them and come to Celsius. We just crossed $2.7B in deposits since launch two years ago. We would not be growing so fast unless we did more to our customers than exchanges.”
From the chart above, we can see that this swing has not impacted all exchanges equally. While balances at BitMEX and Bitfinex were decimated, decreasing by more than half, Binance has continued to accumulate additional funds. Coinbase’s coffers have remained mostly unchanged as well.
The growth of DeFi may have also contributed to this trend. The amount of Bitcoin locked on Ethereum through wBTC and renBTC presently exceeds 130,000. Just a few months ago, these numbers were negligible. Another likely culprit is institutional adoption. Aside from the continuous growth of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust Fund, publicly-traded companies like MicroStrategy and Square began adding crypto assets to their treasuries.
It seems that there is either a general trend towards users withdrawing Bitcoin from custodial exchanges, or perhaps a few major exchanges are simply losing the trust of their customers. The latter may be a reasonable conclusion, as a mere three platforms (BitMEX, Huobi, and Bitfinex) were responsible for the bulk of the trend — their balances decreased by 390,000 BTC, making them accountable for almost 80% of the total decline.
Annual January 3rd “Proof<Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof<Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof<Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof<Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof,Annual January 3rd “Proof