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Consumer Slump Will Hit Online Retailers Too (#GotBitcoin?)

An unexpected profit warning in Europe suggests internet stores may be less resilient than expected in consumer downturns. Consumer Slump Will Hit Online Retailers Too (#GotBitcoin?)

Consumer Slump Will Hit Online Retailers Too (#GotBitcoin?)

Online retailers haven’t so far been properly tested by a consumer-spending downturn. Early signs from Europe suggest they won’t be as resilient as tech bulls might hope.

Roughly $3 billion has been wiped from the value of shares of ASOS and Zalando , two major European online fashion retailers, this week after the former flagged a slowdown on Monday. ASOS was hit by dismal demand in November, just like regular malls and bricks-and-mortar stores. The London-based company, which specializes in cheap but trendy clothes for 20-somethings, blamed weak consumer sentiment and “economic uncertainty.”

This is an eye opener for investors who have few clues how e-commerce will fare in the next consumer recession. During the 2008 financial crisis, most grew rapidly thanks to the shift to internet shopping. But as online markets mature—U.K. online sales are growing at half the rate they were two years ago—e-commerce companies will lose that structural boost.

Thin margins make online retailers particularly vulnerable in a slump. ASOS expects an operating margin of just 2% this year—half what it previously expected and much lower than even the most stressed high-street retailers. One reason is the need for heavy investment in automated warehouses and distribution centres. ASOS has been building a major hub in Atlanta to serve the U.S. market, for example.

Internet retailers don’t pay for prime storefronts, but they do face major logistics costs that bricks-and-mortar players don’t. One third of all clothing ordered online is returned, compared with around 8% for items bought from the shop floor. And processing a return costs $3 when it is handed to a shop, but $6 when it is shipped back to a distribution center, data from consulting firm AlixPartners show. ASOS said it has to foot the bill for free delivery to maintain an edge over traditional shops, even though orders are getting smaller.

Investors have been cooling on European internet retailers. Shares in Britain’s and Germany’s Zalando were in the red for this year even before this week’s rout. ASOS shares now trade at a 50% premium to those of Zara-owner Inditex on a prospective earnings basis, compared with 180% just eight months ago. Investors still think online-only players are a better bet—but much less so than they once did.

For now, consumer confidence remains strong in the U.S., and shares in online retail giant Amazon are up 26% this year, even as the tech-heavy Nasdaq index has fallen. This week’s lesson from Europe is that e-commerce doesn’t necessarily offer protection from plunging consumer sentiment. Investors should take note before it is the U.S. economy’s turn to cool.

Updated: 11-5-2019

Drop In Consumer-Goods Imports Points To Slower U.S. Growth

U.S. posts largest petroleum products surplus on record on import decline.

U.S. imports of goods such as cellphones, toys and apparel fell sharply in September, the latest sign that slowing global growth may be spilling into the domestic economy.

Imports sank 1.7% from August to a seasonally adjusted $258.44 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The decline was led by a 4.4% drop in imports of consumer goods, followed by a 3.4% fall in imports of vehicles and auto parts. Imports of petroleum products also fell in the month, creating the largest monthly surplus in records going back to 1978.

“It could be a sign that the U.S. consumer is possibly curtailing spending,” said Pooja Sriram, a U.S. economist at Barclays, of the drop in consumer-goods imports. “We haven’t seen that category fall by this magnitude in a considerable time.”

Another possible factor is the latest round of tariffs by the Trump administration. Starting Sept. 1, the U.S. imposed 15% duties on $111 billion worth of imported tools, apparel items, footwear and electronics from China.

U.S. households have been a main driver for the economy this year as global growth has weakened and business investment has fallen amid trade uncertainties. A sustained drop in consumer spending would leave the economy vulnerable, economists say.

Consumer outlays grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter from the previous three months, the Commerce Department reported last week, down from a 4.6% increase in the second quarter. The increase helped offset a 3% decline in business investment. U.S. retail sales also fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in September from August.

Tuesday’s report showed imports of goods from China fell 4.9% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted $37.05 billion.

Because of month-to-month fluctuations in trade flows, economists said it was difficult to determine the extent to which the latest tariffs hampered imports.

But Hasbro, Inc., maker of Play-Doh, the board game Monopoly, and other toys and games, said tariffs prompted retailers to cancel some imports of its products from China and attempt to replace them with domestic orders, which the manufacturer wasn’t entirely able to fill.

“In the third quarter, the threat of and the implementation of tariffs in certain instances impacted our shipments and our ability to fully meet demand,” Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner said in an earnings call in October, according to a transcript by FactSet.

Xerox Holdings Corp. Chief Executive Bill Osbourn said in a conference call last week he expects the greatest impact from the September tariffs to be felt in the fourth quarter.

U.S. imports of petroleum products fell 4.6% in September from August, contributing to the record $252 million trade surplus in petroleum.

For months, the U.S. has been expected to become a net exporter of oil and petroleum products, a symbolic moment that showed the country is moving closer to the ideal of “energy independence.”

But the figure, which includes crude oil as well as products such as gasoline, doesn’t mean the U.S. is independent from foreign sources of oil.

The U.S. has become far less reliant on foreign crude in recent years, thanks to a fracking boom that has transformed the country into the world’s top oil producer, churning out more than 12 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Still, America continues to import substantial volumes of foreign oil, primarily heavier varieties that refiners mix with domestic crude, which generally is lighter and less sulfurous. The fuel makers need a mix of light and heavy oils to operate at optimal capacity.

The U.S. was briefly a net exporter of oil and refined fuels last November, according to Energy Information Administration data, and it has achieved the distinction during several weeks since. Tuesday’s report was the first time in decades that trend has shown up in the monthly Commerce Department reports.

In the calculation of gross domestic product, imports are subtracted, so lower imports, arithmetically, will raise GDP. However, if imports fall because of weak domestic demand, the GDP boost is offset by lower business and consumer spending.

Overall, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed 4.7% in September from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted $52.45 billion, the Commerce Department said. Through the first nine months of the year, the gap stood at $481.33 billion, up 5.4% from the same period of 2018.

Updated: 12-22-2020

U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops, Hits Four-Month Low

U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in December to a four-month low amid surging Covid-19 cases that are spurring more states to tighten restrictions on businesses and travel.

The Conference Board index dropped to 88.6 from a downwardly revised 92.9 in November, according to a report from the group Tuesday. That missed all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists that had called for 97. The measure of sentiment about current conditions fell the most since April, while the expectations gauge rose from a four-year low.

The unexpectedly downbeat reading amid record virus cases and deaths comes just as new vaccines and federal-aid plans offer more reasons for optimism about the coming months. The latest reading, reflecting responses through Dec. 14, remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions deteriorated sharply in December, as the resurgence of Covid-19 remains a drag on confidence,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in the statement.

The report contrasts with another key measure of the country’s outlook. The University of Michigan’s gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly increased in early December to the second-highest level since March. However, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index has fallen for four straight weeks after rebounding since May.

The share of survey respondents who said they expected their incomes to increase edged up to 16.8 from 16, the board said.

On the labor market, the share of respondents saying jobs are plentiful declined for a second month. For expectations, the share saying that fewer jobs will be available in the next six months rose to a seven-year high of 22.2%.

Updated: 12-31-2020

U.S. Consumer Comfort Gauge Drops To Four-Month Low

A gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment dropped last week to a four-month low as Americans grew more pessimistic about the state of the national economy and the resurgence of Covid-19 cases.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell 2.4 points in the week that included Christmas to 44.6, the lowest since the period ended Aug. 23, data released Thursday showed. The sentiment measure is now only a third of the way back from its pre-pandemic level.

Americans’ assessments of the national economy, buying climate and their personal finances all worsened. The report comes against a backdrop of surging Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdown restrictions.

Americans’ pessimism about the economy and their financial situation continued as lawmakers dragged their feet on another fresh round of stimulus. A $900 billion pandemic-relief bill, passed by Congress on Dec. 21, wasn’t signed into law by President Donald Trump until Dec. 27.

Matching its low since early July, the sentiment index for the national economy fell by 3 points to 34, the third straight weekly decline. The gauge has fallen 6.5 points in the last two weeks, the most since April and reflecting pessimism among Republicans.

The measure of attitudes about personal finances fell to a four-month low of 58.8 from 61.2. Views of the buying climate also deteriorated last week.

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