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Roubini AKA Dr. Doom vs. BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes Debate Bitcoin

The Asian Blockchain Summit (ABS 2019), the biggest international blockchain event in Asia,  commences on July 2 and July 3 in Taipei. The two-day summit during Taipei Blockchain Week will bring about 5000 participants and more than 300 related companies across the world. Roubini AKA Dr. Doom vs. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Debate Values of Crypto (#GotBitcoin?)

Roubini AKA Dr. Doom vs. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Debate Values of Crypto (#GotBitcoin?)

ABS 2019 will drive an industrial renovation in Taiwan, making it the leader of the blockchain revolution in East Asia and transforming it into the most advanced “Blockchain Island” of Asia.

More Than An Event: A Symposium That Explores True Values And Delivers Constructive Solutions and OBITO.IO co-host the summit where some of the most heated debates in the history of the blockchain industry will take place. These detabes will present significant facts, ideas and values of the industry and explore the creative solutions to renovate the industry.

Debates will focus on the seven most advanced areas in the blockchain industry: government regulations, commercial applications, market dynamics, the construction of an industrial ecosystem, financial innovations, technical analysis, and the future of decentralization.

Besides the debates, there are also planned discussions among international government officials. An open opportunity to bounce ideas and solutions off one another, the summit will illuminate the whole blockchain industry in East Asia.

Naokazu Takemoto, the G20 cryptocurrency convener and Japanese House of Representatives, and Jason Hsu, the Taiwanese “crypto legislator” will lead the discussions, covering topics such as governmental issues and industrial policies and regulations.

The two most influential figures in the cryptocurrency industry will participate in ABS 2019. Changpeng Zhao “CZ”, the founder and CEO of Binance, the largest spot trading cryptocurrency exchange in the world, is expected to deliver a speech on the blueprint of the global blockchain industry.

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, the largest leveraged trading cryptocurrency exchange in the world, will further the discussion by sharing his insights on the development of the derivatives market of Bitcoin.

The Debate Between Nouriel Roubini “Dr. Doom”And BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes

The spotlight of this summit will be the debate between macroeconomist Nouriel Roubini “Dr. Doom” and Arthur Hayes, the CEO and founder of BitMEX.

This high-profile debate of the century will focus on the fundamental value of cryptocurrency – will it change the future of the entire humanity? Or is it just a flash in the pan?

The two speakers have completely different ideologies when it comes to cryptocurrency. Roubini is best known for being outspoken and a perpetual pessimist when it comes to macroeconomy. He once harshly criticized the cryptocurrency scene in a conference – he said that over 81% of cryptocurrency is a fraud,  11% are basically failures, and the remaining 8% lost 90% of their value.

“I believe 99.99% of crypto currencies will inevitably fail – maybe only Bitcoin will last over just a few years,” Boubini said.

On the other hand, Arthur Hayes is positive about the industry. One of the most intrepid entrepreneurs in the blockchain industry, Hayes also worked his way up the conventional banking ladder. He has extensive experience in both traditional banking system and the blockchain industry and his company BitMEX has an average of a billion trading value daily and provides XBTUSD, a product with 100 times leverage.

“The resistance in the market during 2019 will be intense,” Hayes once said. “Nevertheless, Bitcoin will return to 10,000 USD – a very important mental threshold.”

His positivity is proven to be helpful in his own case – in the midnight of July 22, Bitcoin successfully broke the 10,000 USD level.

Roubini and Hayes hold strong and completely opposite opinions and ideologies on cryptocurrency. Their debate will tackle the fundamental topic – whether cryptocurrency is a scam or a game changer. Their thoughts are likely to spark further discussions within the global community.

Taipei Blockchain Week: Starting with a Historical Meetup and Gathering Multiple Influential Companies in the Blockchain industry

Cooperating with ABS 2019, Binance will present a grand opening to start the week. During the one-week Taipei Blockchain week,  there will be over 30 conferences, technical project meetups, private investing meetings, and parties.

On July 2nd at 19:00, the grand opening, also called the “Binance Super Meetup” will take place at the center stage of ABS 2019. It is estimated to attract thousands of participants who will engage themselves in the meetup.

Changpeng Zhao “CZ,” the founder and CEO of Binance, will participate in the “Binance Super Meetup.” He will lead seminar discussions attended by senior executives of Binance, representatives of various communities, as well as users of Binance. The meetup will also feature conversations regarding the future of the Binance ecology.

“We are extremely glad to hold our first Binance Super Meetup during ABS. We want to listen closely to our community and at the same time share our thoughts with the participants. Binance will soon be two years old. We never would have reached this point without your support. We sincerely welcome you to attend the seminar and grow together with Binance,” CZ said.

ABS 2019 will take place in Marriot Taipei. The venue includes the parallel session at Asia Hall and Formosa Stage. The summit will be in English, supported by Pwc, EY, Deloitte, KPMG, Antpool, Sparkpool, and Canaan Creative.

We welcome you to Taipei this summer to witness this revolutionary moment!

About BlockTempo

BlockTempo is the most influential blockchain media in Taiwan and has hosted more than hundreds of events from the largest international blockchain summit in Taiwan to weekly meetups. It also runs multiple online communities in which the topics vary from technology, investment to industry pioneers.

BlockTempo has been focusing on filling the information gap and barriers between Taiwan and the world. Through different content including  live streaming, real-time report, technology, entrepreneurship, industry, investment trends and in-depth perspectives, BlockTempo is making great attempts to speed up Taiwan’s industrial revolution in the era of blockchain.

Updated: 7-3-2019

Nouriel Roubini Urges BitMEX CEO To Release Crypto Debate Tape 

American economist and professional crypto contrarian Nouriel Roubini has furiously demanded the release of a recording of his latest debate with BitMEX CEO and co-founder Arthur Hayes.

In one of several fulminating tweets posted on July 2, Roubini accused the organizers of the Asia Blockchain Summit in Taiwan of being part of a “mafia hush money racket” and cowing to BitMEX’s censorship by choosing to neither tape nor broadcast his debate with Hayes during the event. One tweet reads:

“Another @CryptoHayes scam: he didnt allow the blockchain conference to record our debate or beam it live. He controls the only recording of it and will only release heavily edited “highlights”. I destroyed @CryptoHayes in the debate and he is hiding. RELEASE THE TAPE YOU COWARD!”

While Roubini’s well-oiled routine of playing the crypto antagonist is well-known across the industry, the economist appears to be particularly keen on having this latest squabble — dubbed the “Tangle in Taipei” — in the public eye.

Hayes — seemingly more relaxed about the affair — responded to Roubini by assuring him that any tape release would expose his “thin grasp of economics and technology.”

According to Cointelegraph’s reporter at the scene, the Tangle in Taipei was largely a rehearsal of Roubini’s view that the crypto industry is rife with scammers and that its technology is neither secure, decentralized, nor scalable.

He also reiterated his view of its shortcomings as a payments system, and dubbed the entire space of innovation as a manifestation of “stone age technology, not a digital revolution.”

It remains to be seen whether Hayes’ release of debate highlights will grace ears with another of Roubini’s Taipei soundbites — “there’s nothing smart about smart contracts.”

One conference attendee who says she “endured” Roubini’s debate performance, summarized it as “the entitled view of a privileged man speaking for the underprivileged.”

As recently reported, BitMEX posted record volumes across its operations as bitcoin (BTC) hit $13,000 last month. As the world’s single biggest bitcoin derivatives provider, the platform reported more than $1 billion of open interest on the market, prompting Hayes to declare that crypto winter is resolutely over.

Roubini meanwhile provided fresh insights at the Salt conference in New York this spring, claiming that “crypto is the mother and father of all bubbles.”

In response to the latest fracas over Taipei, one social media commentator picked up on an apparent Roubini tweet of six-year vintage — back when BTC was in the double-digits —  quipping “Nouriel, what’s the % gained between $58 & $10,000?”

Updated: 10-17-2019

Bitcoin ‘Maybe Is a Partial Store of Value,’ Concedes Nouriel Roubini

Economist Nouriel Roubini — also known as “Dr. Doom” for his prediction of the 2007–2008 financial crisis and his criticism of cryptocurrencies — has conceded that Bitcoin (BTC) is “a partial store of value.”

Roubini made the concession during a panel alongside high-profile crypto industry figures such as Brock Pierce, Bobby Lee and Tone Vays during the CC Forum 2019 conference in London on Oct. 16.
“Maybe Bitcoin is a partial store of value”

As Tone Vays suggested in a tweet on Oct. 17, Roubini’s admission arguably represents “baby steps” forward in his stance toward cryptocurrencies — notwithstanding the fact that Roubini swiftly followed his comment with several criticisms:

“Maybe Bitcoin is a partial store of value but it’s not a unit of account, it’s not a means of payment, it’s not scalable […] in spite of its rally earlier this year, it’s lost 60% in value since its peak, so I don’t see it going anywhere frankly.”

“I’d take the U.S. dollar over any one of your s***coins,” he told BTCC founder Bobby Lee, arguing that financial innovation, albeit imminent, would instead come from implementations of AI, big data and IoT technologies in the fintech space.

Roubini noted that as an analyst of financial crises, he is “not a defender of the traditional financial system.” He nonetheless forcefully argued that central banks’ responses to 2008 — such as coordinated monetary policy and the Fed assuming the role of “lender of last resort” — had worked and prevented the Great Recession from becoming “a Great Depression 2.0.”

Tokenization a return to the “Stone Age”

Roubini also argued that tokenizing assets, as proposed by some blockchain advocates, would return us to a “Stone Age of bartering” as it would inhibit a measure of the relative price of goods:

“‘Even the Flintstones had a more sophisticated system of value than crypto.”

The economist’s bleak assessment of cryptocurrencies chimed with his starkly pessimistic outlook on the macroeconomic landscape, in which he emphasized the risks of a cold trade war between the U.S. and China spurring a balkanization and de-globalization of the world economy, a possible hard Brexit sparking a eurozone recession, and a potential hike in oil prices due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

More broadly, he claimed, we are seeing something of “a populist backlash” against frictionless trade, migration, and even against technology as it becomes increasingly capital intensive and labor saving.

During the panel, Roubini reiterated many of his by now well-known remarks on cryptocurrency — such as that international governments will categorically quash any value transfer system that is truly anonymous, and that decentralization in crypto is a myth.

Updated: 3-2-2020

Bitcoin Closes Above $8.5K As Dr. Doom Says Traders Want ‘Miracles’

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading higher on Mar. 2 after a lackluster weekend saw markets fall below $8,500 for the second time in a week.

Dr. Doom Slams Traditional Investors

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed slightly more promising conditions for BTC/USD as Monday began, the pair trading at around $8,600.

24-hour lows had reversed at $8,465, but compared to the start of last week, Bitcoin was still down by more than 11%.

Coronavirus continued to weigh on sentiment, with its spread around the world stalking traditional markets. As Cointelegraph reported, last week, the Dow Jones saw its biggest daily drop in history, while gold shed more in a day than on any other since 2013.

Even Nouriel Roubini, the economist known as “Dr. Doom” for, among other things, his highly negative stance on Bitcoin, expressed major concern.

In an interview with German news magazine Der Spiegel on Thursday, Roubini said the coronavirus crisis was “much more severe for China and the rest of the world than investors have expected.”

“Everyone believes it’s going to be a V-shaped recession, but people don’t know what they are talking about,” he added.

“They prefer to believe in miracles.”

China led a slight recovery in early trading on Monday, with its CSI 300 index jumping by 3.2% on hopes of a financial stimulus package for the ailing economy.

BTC Avoids Bearish “Rethink”

Bitcoin nonetheless managed to escape the lower weekly close which one analyst feared would force him to “rethink” its prospects.

For Cointelegraph Markets’ filbfilb, closing about $8,500 — the 20-week moving average for BTC/USD — was key.

“If we close the week below the 20 wma then I need to reassess btc. 8500+ required,” he told subscribers of his Telegram trading channel.

Responding to Roubini, meanwhile, fellow Cointelegraph analyst Keith Wareing noted that more turmoil for traditional markets could benefit Bitcoin if the latter were to retain its strength.

“Imagine for a moment, stocks drop by another 40% whilst #bitcoin starts to recover,” he tweeted on Sunday.

“How many new eyes will this put on #btc? If you just lost a fortune in stocks, cramming funds into a low market cap investment like #bitcoin could be the fastest way to recover.”

Updated: 1-19-2023

Bitcoin Faces $15K Crash As US Sparks ‘Financial Meltdown’ — Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin will be just one of the risk assets which “crater” as the Federal Reserve is forced to abandon quantitative tightening in future, the ex-BitMEX CEO warns.

In his latest blog post released on Jan. 19, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX exchange predicted a “global financial meltdown” thanks to future United States economic woes.

Hayes: Crypto Will “Get Smoked” In Fed Pivot

Bitcoin’s current rally should likely not be taken as the start of a new bull run.

That is the opinion of Arthur Hayes, who in a fresh treatise on U.S. macroeconomic policy this week warned that current Federal Reserve behavior would flip from restrictive to liberal, but cause cryptoassets to “get smoked.”

With U.S. inflation easing, the Fed is the focus of practically every crypto analyst this year as they estimate the likelihood of a policy “pivot” away from quantitative tightening (QT) and interest rate hikes to flat and then decreasing rates, and potentially even quantitative easing (QE).

This essentially involves a move away from draining the economy of liquidity to injecting it back in, and while that practice led to new all-time highs for Bitcoin beginning in 2020, the same phenomenon would not be plain sailing next time around, Hayes believes.

“If a removal of half a trillion dollars in 2022 created the worst bond and stock performance in a few hundred years, imagine what will happen if double that amount is removed in 2023,” he wrote.

“The reaction of the markets when money is injected vs. withdrawn is not symmetrical — and as such, I expect that the law of unintended consequences will bite the Fed in the ass as it continues to withdraw liquidity.”

As such, rather than a smooth transition away from QT, Hayes is betting on extreme circumstances forcing the Fed to act.

“Some part of the US credit market breaks, which leads to a financial meltdown across a broad swath of financial assets,” he explained.

“In a response similar to the action it took in March 2020, the Fed calls an emergency press conference and stops QT, cuts rates significantly and recommences Quantitative Easing (QE) by purchasing bonds once more.”

“Bonds, equities, and every crypto under the sun all get smoked as the glue that holds together the global USD-based financial system dissolves,” the blog post continues.

Current estimates, as shown by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, overwhelmingly favor the Fed lowering the pace of rate hikes at its next decision on Feb. 1.

Planning A March 2020 Rerun

Hayes is far from alone in being suspicious of Bitcoin being a firm “buy” at present after two weeks of near-vertical price growth.

As Cointelegraph reported, various commentators wager that new macro lows will still appear, with BTC/USD taking out its floor from Q4, 2022.

Those taking a leap of faith and piling in now thus face serious risk before reward.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” Hayes wrote, nonetheless calling that scenario his “base case.”

If that means a retest of the 2022 lows, the area between $15,000 and $16,000 will be a key zone of interest going forward.

“I will know that the market has probably bottomed, because the crash that happens when the system temporarily breaks will either hold the previous $15,800 lows, or it won’t,” the blog post concludes.

“It doesn’t really matter what level is ultimately reached on the down draft because I know the Fed will subsequently move to print money and avert another financial collapse, which will in turn mark the local bottom of all risky assets. And then I get another setup similar to March 2020, which requires me to back up the truck and purchase crypto with two hands and a shovel.”

Bitcoin faces a drop to $15,000 “or lower” as part of a mass risk asset capitulation, says Arthur Hayes.

BTC/USD consolidated at $20,800 at the Jan. 19 Wall Street open, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.



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