Bond Yields Sink To New Lows, Federal Deficits Skyrocket And Trump Back-Tracks On Tax Cuts
Yields Plumb New Lows, but ‘Century Bonds’ Remain Scarce. Yields Sink To New Lows, Federal Deficits Skyrocket And Trump Back-Tracks On Tax Cuts
In the U.S., yields aren’t negative, yet. But 30-year government bond yields this month fell below 2% for the first time, prompting the Treasury Department to express interest in selling debt with 50- and 100-year maturities. Yields for 30-year government bonds have fallen below zero in Holland, Denmark and Switzerland, and below 1% in the U.K., Portugal and Spain.
Only a handful of governments have taken advantage of the chance to sell ultralong bonds at the current low rates.
Bond yields in many countries world-wide have fallen to record lows this summer. Yet few governments have responded as many bankers and investors say they should, by locking in ultralow rates for decades.
Germany on Wednesday sold 30-year government bonds at a negative interest rate for the first time, meaning investors are effectively paying the government to hold their money. Europe’s largest economy raised €824 million ($914 million) by selling bonds that will be worth €795 million at maturity in 2050.
Just a handful of governments have taken advantage of the opportunity to sell ultralong bonds, those maturing in at least 50 years, at such low rates. Ireland and Belgium sold 100-year bonds in 2016, and Austria and Argentina followed the year after.
Switzerland, Japan and Sweden have sold bonds maturing in 10 years or more at negative yields.
That has led many investors and analysts to ask why more governments aren’t taking action. Many proponents of large-scale bond issuance at ultralow rates say policy makers are missing an easy opportunity to raise funds that could help generate jobs and income by, for instance, financing the rebuilding of crumbling roads and bridges, for starters.
“There’s free money on the table for the U.S.,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “There’s no reason for the U.S. to hesitate.”
The politics of debt issuance have grown fraught in recent years, with government deficits rising in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and again recently. But markets haven’t been concerned about deficits recently, with U.S. yields falling despite a rising budget gap. Those worried about the accumulation of government debt should realize that locking in low interest rates for very long terms is ultimately very prudent, said Mr. Posen.
A few countries have tried. Ireland and Belgium each sold €100 million of 100-year bonds in privately placed deals in 2016. Argentina sold $2.75 billion of that maturity in 2017, while Austria sold €3.5 billion of 100-year bonds that year and followed-on with €1.25 billion more in June.
Before the era of negative interest rates, China sold 100-year bonds in 1996, followed by the Philippines in 1997 and Mexico in 2010.
Some countries, including the U.K., France, Belgium, Italy and Spain have sold 50-year bonds totaling roughly $130 billion since the start of 2014, according to Refinitiv.
Ultralong bonds have a natural audience, in institutions such as insurers that have long-term liabilities and need to match them with long-dated assets. Many analysts contend there is generally a dearth of safe, long-term assets right now, and that this shortage is part of the dynamic that has driven bond yields down so sharply in 2019.
That said, investors have some reservations about buying ultralong bonds. They can be volatile and few are outstanding, so liquidity, the capacity to buy or sell at listed prices, can be fleeting. The 100-year bonds sold by Austria have traded at times 70% above face value. Should global interest rates begin to climb, those gains could evaporate.
The value of Argentina’s 100-year bonds have fallen by nearly half after Argentina’s pro-business President Mauricio Macri lost a primary election this month, indicating that he may be defeated in October’s election.
Of the roughly $15 trillion of bonds with negative yields globally, about $3 trillion were sold at their offering with negative yields, while the rest fell below zero as the securities appreciated during the global bond market rally. A bond’s yield becomes negative when its value in the market exceeds its principal to be returned at maturity and the sum of all its future interest payments.
Some investors who buy negative-yielding debt own it as a hedge for other parts of their portfolios. Holding bonds with negative yields can also be a more palatable option for institutional investors who face surcharges for keeping deposits in a bank. Others may buy negative-yielding bonds because they believe their prices will appreciate as economic growth slows and inflation falls, conditions many investors expect to prevail in coming months.
One other possible reason for buying them: skepticism that the novel responses of global central bankers to the global growth shortfall will prove effective.
“You’re running negative rates and it hasn’t had the desired consequence,” said Jack McIntyre, who manages global bond portfolios for Brandywine Global Investment Management. “You’re going to need something more.”
Federal Deficits To Grow More Than Expected Over Next Decade, CBO Says
CBO boosts 10-year forecasts for budget deficits by $809 billion, citing two-year budget deal.
Federal deficits are projected to grow much more than expected over the next decade thanks to the two-year budget agreement lawmakers and the White House struck last month, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.
The agency increased its forecasts for deficits over the next decade by $809 billion, to $12.2 trillion, in updated budget projections released Wednesday. The increase primarily reflects higher federal spending under the new budget deal, partly offset by lower projected interest rates.
CBO said the new agreement, which increased spending roughly $320 billion over the next two years above previously enacted spending caps, will add roughly $1.7 trillion to deficits between 2020 and 2029. That reflects CBO’s assumption that federal spending will continue to grow at the rate of inflation after 2021.
Higher spending on disasters and border security in 2019 also boosted projected deficits by $255 billion over the next 10 years, assuming that spending continues to grow. CBO also downgraded its forecasts for U.S. interest rates, which will reduce expected interest costs on government debt by $1.4 trillion over the next decade.
Deficits as a share of gross domestic product are expected to average 4.7% over the next decade, up from the 4.3% average CBO projected in May, and a significant increase from the 2.9% average over the past 50 years.
Overall, CBO said government debt as a share of the economy is expected to rise from 79% this year to 95% in 2029—up from 92% when the agency released its 10-year forecasts in May.
“The nation’s fiscal outlook is challenging,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said. “To put it on a sustainable course, lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies—making revenues larger than they would be under current law, reducing spending below projected accounts, or adopting some combination of those approaches.”
Lawmakers have shown little appetite, however, for reining in federal spending or raising taxes, and investors are unfazed by the government red ink.
The latest projections come as White House officials are considering potential stimulus measures that would help cushion the U.S. economy from a potential downturn but would likely add billions more to government debt.
Risks of a deepening economic downturn appear to be rising abroad and could be spreading to the U.S. economy, as heightened trade tensions and slower global growth weigh on economic activity.
CBO said Wednesday higher tariffs are expected to reduce the level of U.S. GDP by 0.3% by 2020, primarily by raising prices, which reduces consumers’ purchasing power and increases the cost of business investment. Tariffs also reduce average real household income by $580, or 0.4%, by 2020, CBO projected.
Higher federal spending is expected to bolster the economy from some of those effects over the next few years: CBO lifted its forecast for GDP to 2.1% in 2020, from a projected 1.7% in January, and 1.8% in 2021, up from 1.6% in January.
While government borrowing costs remain historically low, high and rising debt could constrain policy makers in the next downturn. Research has shown countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios during a crisis have weaker recoveries, in part because policy makers worry about borrowing more to stimulate the economy.
Deficits typically shrink when the economy is doing well, as low unemployment and rising wages push up tax revenues for the government, and automatic spending on safety-net programs such as unemployment insurance declines.
Instead, deficits as a share of the economy have been rising in recent years despite an uptick in economic output, and annual deficits are on track to eclipse $1 trillion in fiscal 2019, which ends Sept. 30. Although government receipts have begun to pick up 18 months after the 2017 tax cuts took effect, they haven’t kept pace with rising federal spending or broader economic growth.
The Treasury Department said last month it expects to borrow more than $1 trillion for the second year in a row.
In Reversal, Trump Says He Is No Longer Considering Tax Cuts
President had said Tuesday he wanted to bolster the economy by reducing capital gains, payroll taxes.
President Trump said Wednesday he wasn’t currently looking at any form of tax cuts, a reversal from a day earlier when he floated possible moves to bolster economic growth.
“I’m not looking at a tax cut now,” Mr. Trump said in comments to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House. “We don’t need it. We have a strong economy.”
Mr. Trump has maintained the economy remains on a strong footing despite some recent warning signs, but he has also pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which he argues would supercharge growth.
n his comments Wednesday, he ruled out a cut in the payroll tax and also said he wasn’t looking to reduce capital-gains taxes by indexing gains to inflation. He said indexing could be seen as “somewhat elitist” and would benefit wealthier households rather than American workers.
But he said indexing remained an option and that he believed he had authority to make changes, a point that is in dispute.
A day earlier, Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was considering measures to bolster the economy, including lowering capital-gains taxes and a possible reduction in payroll taxes.
Payroll taxes, which are separate from the federal income tax, fund Medicare and Social Security, and a reduction would boost workers’ take-home pay.
“We’re looking at various tax reductions,” he had said Tuesday. “We’re talking about indexing. And we’re always looking at the capital gains tax, payroll tax….I would love to do something on capital gains. We’re talking about that.”
The president has sent conflicting messages on whether he believes he could lower capital-gains taxes unilaterally. On Tuesday, he said he could “directly” index gains to inflation—a belief that conflicts with a 1992 opinion in which the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel concluded that Treasury lacked the authority to define the word “cost” to include inflationary gains. The attorney general at the time, William Barr, is again the attorney general.
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump suggested he no longer believed he could do so unilaterally.
The economic expansion this summer became the longest on record in the U.S. Unemployment is exceptionally low and consumer spending appears robust, but warning signs are flashing. Growth in economic output slowed to a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter from a 3.5% annual rate in the second quarter of 2018. Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New,Yields Sink To New