Ultimate Resource On Large And Small Bitcoin Hodlers
Over 55% of Bitcoins currently sit in wallets that have balances upwards of 200 coins – worth over $1Mn at any point in time within the last 11 months when the price of Bitcoin breached the $5k mark. Ultimate Resource On Large And Small Bitcoin Hodlers
And impressively, 1/3 of the Bitcoins that are sitting in these wallets, have never made an outgoing transaction, which, outside of exchange wallets could indicate either lost private keys, lowering real supply, or a very strong resolve by cryptocurrency believers.
Long-term investors are keeping the faith in the king of cryptocurrencies despite the bears market in 2018. Data crunching by Diar shows that the majority of circulating Bitcoins, 55%, are sitting in wallets that are valued north of $1.3Mn at current prices.
At pixel time, over 87% of Bitcoins are stored in wallets that are above 10 Bitcoins ($60K+) – the total value just shy of $100Bn of the total market capitalization. These coins sit in only 0.7% of all Bitcoin addresses.
Accounting for wallets with over 100 coins ($640K+), this number drops to under 0.1% of all addresses, but represent 62% of all outstanding Bitcoins.
The top-heavy ownership of Bitcoins of course does not indicate a select number of wealthy individuals solely however, as the largest wallets are owned by cryptocurrency exchanges that are holding the coins on behalf of clients. In fact, 3.8% of the total bitcoin supply are currently sitting in the top 5 wallets that are known to be managed by major exchanges – approx. $4.2Bn in value.
BALLERS BE BALLING, HODLERS BE HODLING
An amazing 42% of Bitcoins held in such investment wallets (above 200 BTC) made no outgoing movement during the price peak in December 2017 – and sat in wallets before the markets saw the near $20k BTC. And 27% of these Bitcoin wallets have continued to add more coins to their stash since then.
TWO SIDES TO A BITCOIN TOO
An analysis earlier this year by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, however, places a whopping $30Bn Bitcoin sell off between December 2017 and April 2018. The report placed, back in April, 1/3 of Bitcoin supply in the concentrated hands of 1600 individuals. But there is a cherry on top for long-term investors. Chainalysis places the possibility of 30% of Bitcoin supply to be lost, and unmined. Diar recent analysis is inline with this estimate.
Note: The wallets may have never made an outgoing transaction since November 2017, however current balances reflect new wallets, as well as Bitcoins added to the wallets.
25% of total Bitcoins sit in wallets that were created before the Price Peak and have not made any outgoing transactions. Some wallets may be managed by exchanges.
Updated 4-23-2019
Chainalysis Adds Real-Time Transaction Monitoring for 4 More Cryptos
Blockchain compliance startup Chainalysis has added four more cryptocurrencies to its real-time transaction monitoring tool.
The newly supported coins are Binance’s native token Binance Coin (BNB) and three stablecoins – Gemini dollar (GUSD), Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USD Coin (USDC) – Chainalysis said Wednesday.
“As a New York trust company, we are required to monitor transactions onto and off of our platform,” said crypto exchange Gemini’s chief compliance officer, Michael Breu. “Automated solutions like Chainalysis help us fulfill our regulatory obligations.”
The additions mean Chainalysis’ anti-money laundering compliance solution, Chainalysis KYT (Know Your Transaction), now supports a total of 10 cryptocurrencies. The solution already supported six cryptocurrencies: bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), bitcoin cash (BCH), litecoin (LTC) and the stablecoins TrustToken’s TrueUSD and Paxos Standard (PAX).
The support of additional cryptocurrencies comes in anticipation of regulatory guidance from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global money-laundering watchdog, which will provide clarity on how cryptocurrencies should be regulated over 180 countries, Chainalysis said.
The startup’s co-founder and chief operating officer, Jonathan Levin, told CoinDesk:
“Chainalysis is prepared to equip businesses with automated transaction monitoring for currencies beyond bitcoin. We expect that the launch of these multiple currency capabilities will help shape FATF guidance on the sector and help move away from technically infeasible solutions to more pragmatic recommendations.”
With Chainalysis having recently rebuilt its technology to scale and support more blockchains, the firm will be able to add new cryptocurrencies more quickly, Levin added in the announcement.
The startup’s blockchain investigation tool, Chainalysis Reactor, now also supports the same 10 cryptocurrencies, which it says represent 85 percent of the top 25 coins by trading volume.
Just last week, Chainalysis published a public comment letter in response to a draft recommendation by the FATF, saying that it is unrealistic and potentially harmful for the crypto industry to expect exchange platforms to send know-your-customer (KYC) information to recipient platforms with every transaction.
Founded in 2014, the firm recently raised a total of $36 million in a multi-stage Series B funding backed by notable investors, including Japan’s largest bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and venture capital firm Accel Partners.
Updated: 12-2-2019
‘Hodlers Are Insane’ — 64% of Bitcoin Supply Has Not Moved Since 2018
Over 60% of the total Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation has not left its wallet in more than a year, highlighting demand among investors.
That was the conclusion of analyst Rhythm, who uploaded statistics about Bitcoin network activity on Dec. 2.
BTC Investors Shun Risk And Short-Term Gains
Of the roughly 18.08 million Bitcoins which have been mined, 11.58 million — or 64% of the supply — has stayed in the same wallet since 2018.
The figure is striking as during that time, BTC/USD expanded from $3,100 last December to 2019 highs of $13,800 just six months later.
Subsequently, markets reversed downward, shaving 52% off the highs to reach local lows of $6,500 on Nov. 25.
“Hodlers of last resort are insane,” Rhythm summarized.
According to the data, the amount of dormant BTC as a percentage of the total supply has sharply increased in recent years. The trend has remained intact during both bull markets and bear markets, signaling a desire among investors to save rather than spend regardless of profitability.
Hard Money Mentality
Such a trait fits Bitcoin’s characteristics as hard money: a currency with a fixed supply and emission schedule which no central authority can manipulate.
As Cointelegraph recently noted, the cryptocurrency’s proponents have long drawn the distinction between its characteristics and those of “easy money” such as fiat currency.
A currency, which can have its supply manipulated fits an economic system that incentivizes spending and borrowing while discouraging saving. As Saifedean Ammous summarized in his popular book, “The Bitcoin Standard,” consumers feel the urge to spend money sooner, as it loses its value in the long-term due to government and central bank interference.
Bitcoiners, by contrast, continue to exhibit a so-called “low time preference” economically — saving for the future, understanding that it is more profitable to do so than purchase as much as possible as soon as possible.
Updated: 12-18-2019
Bitcoin ‘UTXOs In Loss’ At Record Highs Amid Price Sell-Off
A key metric is hovering at record highs, suggesting investors are likely holding bitcoins even when deep in the red.
The number of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in loss rose to all-time highs above $45 million on Dec. 17, representing a 578 percent rise from the July 1 figure of $6.69 million, according to on-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode.
A UTXO is basically leftover bitcoins after a transaction. It’s a little bit like getting back change when paying for something in cash using large bills.
For example, Alice has 10 bitcoins and needs to pay three BTC to Bob, a merchant. Alice can’t just send out three BTC and hold the rest. Instead, she will have to spend 10 BTC, of which three BTC will be sent to Bob and the remaining seven BTC will be sent back to the address she controls. These seven bitcoins are UTXOs and can be used as inputs in another transaction.
A loss-making UTXO is the one whose price at the time it was created was higher than the current price.
The fact that the UTXO-loss metric is hovering at record highs following a 50 percent price slide from June highs above $13,800 to recent lows near $6,500 indicates investors are likely holding on to their loss-making outputs, according to Alex Benfield, a crypto asset analyst at Digital Assets Data.
“There have been 438 days where someone could have bought bitcoin and would currently be at a loss at the time of writing,” Benfield told CoinDesk in an email. “About half of these days took place in 2019 (dating back to May 12) and would represent short-term holders of less than one year. The other half dates back to as early as Nov. 3 of 2017 and are over two years old, representing long term-holders. Any bitcoin purchased during one of the days where the price was higher than it is today contributes to the UTXO-loss metric, which will continue to reach new all-time highs if the price continues to drop while buyers hold on to their bitcoin.”
Meanwhile, Yan Liberman, co-founder of research boutique Delphi Digital, said UTXO’s in loss can represent long-term holders and cited bitcoin’s market value to realize value (MVRV) ratio as a better way to gauge the amount of UTXOs in loss.
The MVRV ratio is calculated by dividing market value by realized value. While the market value is found by counting all mined coins equally at current market price, the realized value represents the sum of all coin values based on the last time they moved (sum of all UTXOs).
Thus, a falling ratio implies there are large amounts of UTXOs in loss, Liberman told CoinDesk. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.23, having peaked at 2.38 in June, according to data source woobull.com.
Also, there is evidence that long-term holders haven’t been selling. The portion of supply held for at least 12 months started the year at 55.6 percent, peaked at the end of April at 60.8 percent, and sat at almost 59 percent at the end of November, according to Delphi Digital.
Further, the portion of supply held for more than two years stood at an all-time high of 40 percent at the end of November, having started the year at 34.6 percent.
All in all, there is strong reason to believe that “HOLDing” has driven the UTXO-loss metric to record highs.
The drop in the number of transactions seems to have played a role as well, according to Glassnode.
As shown in the chart above, the seven-day moving average of the on-chain transactions has declined from the high of 378,808 seen at the end of June to lows near 304,000. Fewer transactions mean fewer UTXOs have been created during the price slide.
Updated: 1-8-2020
10M Bitcoins Haven’t Moved In More Than a Year, Highest Since 2017
“HODLing” has returned to a major milestone: The total number of bitcoins that haven’t changed hands in more than a year has crossed the 10 million mark.
About 10.7 million bitcoins haven’t moved in more than 12 months, according to Digital Assets Data, a fintech company building crypto data feeds.
Considering the total number of bitcoins in circulation is 18.14 million, this also means nearly 60 percent of the coins remained dormant and only 40 percent participated in the price action seen in 2019. The percentage of bitcoins lying dormant for over a year is at its highest level since early 2017.
“The sheer size of unmoved bitcoin is definitely a sign of the developing community of HODLers,” Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at Komodo Platform, told CoinDesk.
The top cryptocurrency witnessed substantial swings last year, rising from $3,693 to $13,879 in the first six months only to fall back to $7,179 by mid-December. Thus, bitcoin just about doubled last year despite the brutal sell-off in the second half.
Even so, a large number of bitcoins remained inactive, possibly because investors are expecting a significant price rise following the mining reward halving, due in May. The process, repeated every four years, reduces block rewards by half in order to keep inflation under check.
However, if the market doesn’t live up to lofty expectations, some selling could be seen, Stadelmann said. In that case, the sum of bitcoins lying dormant would drop.
HODLers Underwater
Another strong reason for the growing number of bitcoins lying dormant could be that a sizable portion of HODLers are doing so at a loss and are holding on to their investments.
“Many investors are potentially still underwater with bitcoin that was purchased at higher prices in 2017 and 2018,” said Kevin Kaltenbacher of Digital Assets Data.
Prices higher than the 2019 high of $13,879 were observed during the December 2017-February 2018 rally, and many investors may have acquired coins during that bull market frenzy.
However, the fact these investors have not sold indicates they are likely betting on long-term growth prospects.
Updated: 4-23-2020
Bitcoin Investors Hodl $530M More BTC Each Day As Halving Nears — Data
Roughly 75,000 BTC is being added to long-term positions daily, according to figures tracking investor behavior.
Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are accumulating more coins every day than any time in over a year, as crypto investment looks increasingly attractive.
According to data from monitoring resource Glassnode on April 23, this month saw a significant increase in BTC positions.
Hodler Position Change Hits 75,000 BTC Per Day
Known as Hodler net position change, the data shows that long-term Bitcoin investors are in bear market mode, seeking to buy up coins at what they consider to be a bargain price point.
The metric originally came from Bitcoin alpha fund Adamant Capital, which equated the activity behind it roughly to insider buying and selling.
“We see that significant quantities were cashed out during bull markets of Bitcoin, and net new positions were accumulated by HODLers in bear phases,” Adamant explained in a blog post last year.
At current rates, hodlers are adding in excess of 75,000 BTC to their positions each day. The data may include exchange wallets, which can only be excluded if they are known to belong to a specific entity.
Halving Awareness Heats Up
The impressive figures build on previous insights from Glassnode into investor behavior changes. As Cointelegraph reported, whales are also stocking up on coins, while wallet balances of 1 BTC or more are on the rise.
According to Google Trends, meanwhile, there is a keen awareness among internet users of Bitcoin’s upcoming block reward halving and the potential price upside that could result.
Earlier this week, exchange Coinbase said that it had seen a spate of Bitcoin buys equal to $1,200 — the amount of the stimulus checks currently being issued to Americans by the United States government.
Updated: 4-24-2020
Wallets Hodling 0.1+ BTC Hit All-Time High As Halving Looms
The record number of Bitcoin hodlers are hedging their savings against central banks.
The number of addresses holding at least 0.1 Bitcoin (BTC) has exceeded the 3-million mark for the first time as hodlers brace for the halving.
Analysts who adhere to the efficient markets hypothesis, believe that the halving is already priced in and will not significantly affect the price.
However, there are those who believe that markets are irrational and that the market dynamics is better described by behavioral economics instead — the field pioneered by Danny Kahneman, a psychologist, who received a Nobel Prize in economics for his groundbreaking work. At least, for the moment, the latter may have an upper hand.
Hedge Against Fiat?
Interestingly, even the “halving” of the price on Black Thursday, has not slowed down the growth of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC. While those holding 0.1 BTC cannot be identified as “whales”, this growth likely reflects the greater adoption and accumulation by retail investors.
It also comes at a time when central banks around the world are flooding the economy with money. This may be an attempt on the part of the public to hedge their savings against the debasement of fiat currencies.
Though some find it undeniable that recent socio economic events will have a favorable effect on Bitcoin, only time will tell whether it is setting up for a 2017-like bull run.
Updated: 6-19-2020
Bitcoin Hodlers Bought BTC 90% of 2020 As Halving Spawns New Whales
Whale numbers have gone up 2% since the halving, while hodlers have added 233,000 BTC to their positions since the year began.
Bitcoin (BTC) investors are treating 2020 as a major accumulation opportunity, the latest data shows.
Statistics from on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode reveal that June’s BTC price action is even creating more new whales.
Bitcoin Whales Spike 2% Since Halving
Analyzing the number of entities with holdings of 1,000 BTC or more, both May and June saw an increase of roughly 1.5%.
The number of whales, as defined by this metric, now stands at 1,840, has sharply increased in the week following the halving last month.
Zooming out, meanwhile, Glassnode’s “Hodler net position change” chart shows that out of the first 170 days of 2020, Bitcoin investors were accumulating on 154 of those days.
Despite wildly varying price action, the mood among long-term investors clearly points to a desire to save, not trade or spend their coins. The net increase in their positions amounts to around 233,000 BTC.
“Long-Term Bullish Trend”
The trend corresponds to other hodler data previously reported by Cointelegraph. In particular, despite the price volatility this year, more than 60% of the Bitcoin supply remained stationary.
For more than a year, the majority of the supply did not move, a phenomenon that began in December 2019 and has remained.
“Long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin,” fellow monitoring resource Double-U summarized about the whale numbers.
In late May, one analyst went as far as to suggest that Bitcoin’s “accumulation phase” had in fact last far longer — since the all-time highs of $20,000 in December 2017.
Short-term price performance has nonetheless appeared to worry some. Exchange reserves began increasing this week following a long downtrend, in line with volatility, which saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $9,000.
Updated: 6-20-2020
11.4M Bitcoin Held As Long Term Investment
11.4 million Bitcoin is held by long term investors, diminishing the tradeable supply to only 20% of the total Bitcoin supply.
According to Chainalysis, the vast majority of Bitcoin (BTC) is held as long term investment, with 60% held by licensed custodians.
Digital Gold
The company concluded that the breakdown of Bitcoin’s supply makes it similar to gold, supporting the asset’s status as digital gold. They clarify, however, that it is the 3.5 million BTC that is actively traded which supports the price:
“But this digital gold is supported by an active trading market for those who prefer to buy and sell frequently. The 3.5 million Bitcoin used for trading supplies the market, and, in interaction with the level of demand, determines the price.”
Chainalysis defines long term investors as those who have never sold more than 25% of their holdings, noting that such users have often held their assets for many years.
340,000 Weekly Traders
Further analyzing the trading segment of the Bitcoin supply, Chainalysis finds that although retail traders are responsible for 96% of transactions, professionals move the bulk of the volume:
“Retail traders, whom we categorize as those who deposit less than $10,000 USD worth of Bitcoin on exchanges at a time, appear to be the large majority, accounting for 96% of all transfers sent to exchanges on an average weekly basis. Professional traders, however, control the liquidity of the market, accounting for 85% of all the USD value of Bitcoin value sent to exchanges.”
60% Held With Licensed Custodians
Approximately 60% of the entire Bitcoin supply is held by licensed custodians or Virtual Asset Service Providers, or VASPs. This statistic includes many exchanges. Coinbase alone, holds close to 1 million Bitcoin.
The company assumes 3.7 million BTC are lost, including the approximately 1.1 million coins that were likely mined by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The role of custodians has increased over time, which may pour fuel on the fire for those who believe there is too much centralization within the crypto space.
Updated: 10-19-2020
Number Of Bitcoin Wallets Holding Over 100 BTC Tests 6-Month High
Wallets once again appear to be accumulating cryptocurrency at an increasing rate.
More than 16,159 Bitcoin wallets now hold 100+ BTC according to analytics data provider, Glassnode. An October 19 report from the company stated that this figure tests the previous 6-month high of 16,158, last seen on June 8.
Glassnode additionally posted that the number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses reached an all-time high of 31,913,3555 on October 19; approximately 5,000 of these were recorded within the past 24 hours.
On October 5, Cointelegraph reported that analyst and market cyclist Cole Garner had highlighted a two-year record increase in new BTC addresses within the first week of October.
Using data from Glassnode, Garner determined that around 22,000 new Bitcoin “entities” had appeared in a single day — a significant jump above the normal figure of 5-10K per day.
In May, Bitcoin wallets holding a non-zero number of coins crossed the 30 million mark for the first time. More than 99% of these wallets contain less than the once-modest sum of 10 BTC.
‘Old Hands Selling Out’ Metric Shows Bitcoin Price At Risk Of HODLers Dumping
On-chain data shows dormant addresses are selling BTC, leading some analysts to make bearish calls on Bitcoin price.
Old hands are selling their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, according to glassnode’s Coin Dormancy metric. As shown below, dormant addresses selling BTC marked previous tops in BTC.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo said old hands reliably sold the top until the most recent price cycle. He wrote:
“Dormancy is a measure of ‘old hands selling out.’ It’s interesting to see old hands reliably sold tops until this present cycle. They sold the #bitcoin bottom at $3-$4k, they are selling right now.”
There are several reasons long-time holders are selling BTC at the current price. BTC has increased by three-fold since March, and it is a decent take-profit area for sellers. The $12,000 area has also served as a strong resistance level throughout the past two months.
Will The Dormant Bitcoin HODLers Be Proven Right This Time?
Atop the various technical reasons, there are cyclical reasons that could encourage dormant Bitcoin holders to sell.
In the last two fourth quarters, Bitcoin recorded negative returns. The tendency of BTC to underperform during the last quarter, alongside the $12,000 resistance, could compel holders to take profit.
However, some technical analysts believe Bitcoin is at the cusp of starting a new cycle. In the upcoming months, BTC could continue to grind upwards to higher resistance levels and not see a major pullback.
Filbfilb, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, pinpointed the post-halving cycle seen in 2017. He said that BTC reached an all-time high after it broke out in the same week four years ago. He wrote:
“Bitcoin’s cyclical behaviour is difficult to escape from. Same week 4 years ago, Bitcoin was trying to finally break the 50% bear market fib retracement. It never looked back after that & tested ATH by January. This time it’s different?”
The trader also noted that institutions are seemingly longing Bitcoin at record levels. Following the high profile investments in Bitcoin from MicroStrategy and Square, the institutional demand for BTC has increased noticeably.
The volume of institution-tailored platforms, including Bakkt and LMAX Digital, has increased substantially in recent weeks. Filb Filb added:
“Although they dont make up much of the OI – Institutional sized traders were only holding long positions last week.”
BTC’s Technical Setup Is Short-Term Bearish But Fundamentals Are Strong
Most of the short-term bearish signals for Bitcoin are technical rather than fundamental. Various fundamental metrics signify strengthening momentum, including the Bitcoin hashrate.
On Oct. 19, the Bitcoin hashrate hit a new all-time high once again, which is a highly optimistic trend especially after the May 11 halving. John Todaro, a cryptocurrency venture capitalist, said:
“Bitcoin hash rate hit new all-time highs (again). The recent price rally has increased mining revenues, pushing more miners to allocate greater resources to the network, thereby increasing hash rate. Whatever happened to that mining death spiral thesis after the halving?”
Updated: 1-8-2021
Finally, A Good Reason To Sell Bitcoin: Hodler Liquidates To Pay Off Parents’ Mortgage
Bitcoin HODLers are divided on whether now was the best time to sell. But mom and dad…
Reddit’s r/Bitcoin community continues to pull on our heartstrings. On Thursday, a user by the name of “u/Bigtony96” claimed to have sold their entire Bitcoin (BTC) stash to pay off their parents’ mortgage.
The Redditor supposedly unloaded a total of 6 BTC accumulated over the past three years to close out the remaining balance on their parents’ home. They said there was enough money left over to cover taxes and, possibly, buy a new car.
“Today is the day I’ve dreamt of for the past several years, and it feels so surreal,” the user said.
In the post, u/Bigtony96 explained their motivation for wanting to help their parents, whose restaurant business was ravaged by government lockdown orders:
“My parents are everything to me. […] They’re in the restaurant business and the pandemic forced them to burn through a large chunk of their savings, and they stress out over finances every single day. My dad always told me one day he’ll retire once the house is paid off, and that day is finally here.”
While u/Bigtony96 didn’t specify exactly when the BTC was sold, the sale likely occurred on Thursday, as evidenced by the title of the post: “Just sold to pay off my parents’ mortgage.”
Bitcoin’s price surged above $40,000 on Thursday in a remarkable show of force. As Cointelegraph reported, it took BTC less than three weeks to double in price from $20,000.
This isn’t the first time Cointelegraph has picked up on intriguing stories from Reddit’s Bitcoin and crypto communities. Earlier this week, Cointelegraph reported that a user sold their free Reddit Moon tokens to make rent after burning through all their savings. Another managed to covert their Moon tokens, which are earned through community engagement, into Bitcoin for huge profits.
Updated: 2-3-2021
Small And Medium Hodlers Control 40% Of The Bitcoin Supply — Data
Distribution “keeps getting better,” says Willy Woo amid continued claims that Bitcoin as a network is too centralized.
Bitcoin (BTC) ownership is becoming more decentralized every day, data shows, allaying fears that the supply is being controlled by an elite.
Data from Glassnode reproduced by statistician Willy Woo on Feb. 3 shows that the number of smaller Bitcoin holders and those holding coins on behalf of clients keeps growing.
Bitcoin In The Hands Of The Little Guy
Despite BTC/USD rising to record highs in recent weeks, more, not fewer, small investors are coming in board. At the same time, longtime BTC hodlers, known as “humpbacks” in reference to their status as the largest and oldest whale investors in the space, are not cashing out.
“Distribution keeps getting better,” Woo summarized in a series of tweets on the data.
The numbers serve to alleviate fears of centralization fanned by recent articles in the mainstream press on the back of Bitcoin price rises and associated publicity.
In a piece on Jan. 31, Bloomberg used a report from research entity Token Analyst to claim that “Bitcoin’s infrastructure is more centralized than ever before,” and that this was “raising alarms about the security and viability of what is championed as a decentralized network.”
In late December, Forbes targeted mining as an alleged victim of “Chinese centralization.”
Proponents meanwhile continue to highlight Bitcoin as the antidote to the centralization which has undermined fiat currencies around the world.
“How did we get to this point? Centralization, complacency, and a detachment from monetary reality,” commentator Marty Bent wrote in his latest blog post on Feb. 1.
Trader: Big Buyers Will Sell Eventually
A minor preoccupation nonetheless remains the impact of major selling on distribution should new institutional buyers choose to take profit.
For popular trader Scott Melker, such a scenario is a matter of “if,” not “when,” and the idea that institutions will hodl ad infinitum is a myth.
Both MicroStrategy and Grayscale added to their positions this week, the former purchasing 295 BTC on Tuesday while the latter’s Bitcoin assets under management now total $22.5 billion.
“Regardless of all of the reports surfacing about hedge funds exploring Bitcoin, it is our belief most are going to lock in profit at some point, whether they own GBTC or custody their own coins. So, our answer is yes, institutions will sell their bitcoin,” he wrote this week.
“But it is reasonable to believe many companies and funds will add Bitcoin to their balance sheet in some denomination as an inflation hedge rather than a short-term profit opportunity, leaving some Bitcoin off the market for good.”
Updated: 2-25-2021
People Who Bought Bitcoin In 2017 Becoming The Strongest HODLers, New Data Shows
Investors who began their Bitcoin journey three to five years ago have stronger hands than you might think.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be worth almost three times more than at the height of its 2017 bull run, but a lot of hodlers from that time refuse to sell.
The latest data from Bitcoin financial services firm Unchained Capital shows that 2017 buyers control an increasingly large amount of the BTC supply.
2017 Hodlers Are Not “Weak Hands”
According to Unchained’s HODL Waves chart, which ranks the supply according to when coins last moved, those who bought three to five years ago are sitting on their investment.
Since the cross-asset crash of March 2020, when BTC/USD fell to lows of $3,600, the percentage of the BTC supply that last moved between February 2016 and February 2018 increased from 5.57% to 13.38%.
In other words, the uptrend in price during 2019, much of 2020 and all of 2021 has not made 2017 bull run investors sell after surviving the multiyear bear market.
By contrast, the five-year to seven-year and seven-year to 10-year hodl crowd has been reducing its presence over the past year.
“At the beginning of January, 59% of all bitcoin in the network were sitting for longer than 1 year without moving, and by the end of the month, that number dipped to 57%, a decrease of 2% or around roughly 372,320 bitcoin,” Unchained wrote in an update earlier this month.
“It appears that most of the bitcoin transacted during January was bitcoin sitting for less than 3 years, as the bitcoin resting for 3-5 years actually increased by .8%, totally unperturbed by the price volatility. These are the folks that have been holding ever since the last price spike of $15,500 in January 2018, or from $431 in January of 2016.”
10-Year Veterans Hold Tight
The data counteracts an informal narrative still found online that claims that Bitcoin breaching $20,000 for the first time since 2017 last year triggered a mass sell-off from investors desperate to exit at parity or with a modest profit.
As Cointelegraph reported, subsequent gains produced limited selling beyond the whale investor crowd, with any price drips aggressively bought up.
HODL Waves likewise confirms that appetite for Bitcoin has not been dented by price rises beyond $30,000, $40,000 and even $50,000.
A separate cohort, those who bought before 2011, is meanwhile similarly responsible for a larger amount of the supply. Since March 15, 2020, their share has increased from 6.85% to 10.24%.
A stash of 100 BTC, untouched since 2010, made its first reappearance on the network this week.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) February 25, 2021Unlike 2016 to 2018, however, the situation is complicated by the advent of large-scale corporate buyers, notably MicroStrategy, which this week announced its latest buy-in, taking its total Bitcoin holdings to over 90,000 BTC.
Nervous Newbies Are Taking Profits While Long-Term BTC Investors Hodl Strong
Despite short-term Bitcoin trading spiking in January, wallets that have been inactive for at least three years are the largest segment of the BTC holders.
Long-term Bitcoin hodlers appear not to be selling despite 2021’s all-time highs, while nervous newbies have been taking profits along the way.
According to Unchained Capital’s “Hodlwaves” chart — which visually illustrates the time since BTC wallets were last active on-chain, 2021 has seen an increase in both long and short-term activity.
The chart shows the number of coins that have moved in the past 30 to 90 days is at its highest level since 2018. These addresses represent more than 15% and are currently the largest segment of BTC wallets.
Bitcoin wallets that have remained inactive for between three and five years are currently the second-largest segment, representing 13.5% of all addresses. These wallets have also steadily expanded in number during 2021, with onlookers speculating the data may reflect a large number of BTC bag-holders who bought during the 2017 season and held throughout the entire bear trend.
While the share of wallets that have not been active in between five and 10 years appears to have been shrinking over the past year, the number of addresses that have been inactive for at least a decade has increased from roughly 1.7% two years ago to 10.7% today.
On March 11, CTO and co-founder of on-chain crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Rafael Schultze-Kraft shared data revealing the number of wallets that have not been active in the last three or more years has steadily increased since late December.
1+ year hodlers: selling 2+ year hodlers: selling 3+ year hodlers aka “been in a bull market before and know how this works”: stacking sats#Bitcoin
However, the data shows that the share of Bitcoin wallets that have been inactive for at least 12 months has dropped from record highs of nearly 65% in January to 55% today, with nearly half of Bitcoin wallets active in the past year.
Updated: 3-22-2021
Long-Term Investors Continue To Hodl Despite $1T Bitcoin Market Cap
Only 36% of Bitcoin’s supply has moved in the last 6 months, down from 50% during last bull season.
Bitcoin’s liquid supply continues to shrink, with only 36% of circulating BTC being moved on-chain in the past six months.
According to data shared by on-chain crypto data aggregator Glassnode on March 21, the peak of the 2017 bull market saw 50% of Bitcoin’s supply circulating within the preceeding six months.
In bull markets old coins tend to move more. This increases the relative supply of younger coins in the network.
At previous $BTC tops, around 50% of the #Bitcoin supply was younger than 6 months.
The data shows that few long-term investors are tempted to sell their Bitcoin at current price levels, suggesting Bitcoin’s whales are hodling for higher prices and the current bull-trend could have much further to go.
Comparing the age of BTC moved on-chain may offer some insight into market sentiment. When prices hit new peaks it is natural that older coins will be sold for profit, but that trend appears to be decreasing — suggesting that investors would rather hold on to their assets.
The current supply of BTC is 18.66 million or 88.85% of the 21 million limit. It has also been reported that around a fifth of all BTC has been lost or stolen, suggesting the actual circulating supply of Bitcoin could be considerably lower, bolstering the scarcity of the asset.
Glassnode data shared by popular crypto analyst Willy Woo on the same day also noted significant on-chain activity while Bitcoin’s market cap has been above $1 trillion, with 7.3% of BTC’s supply changing hands while the asset has boasted a 13-figure capitalization.
“This is pretty solid price validation; $1T is already strongly supported by investors. I’d say there’s a fair chance we’ll never see Bitcoin below $1T again.”
“URPD is a lens into price discovery by showing the price when coins last moved assuming they were bought by investors,” he added.
However, Woo noted that on-chain coin movements do not always indicate active trading, with exchanges regularly shifting their digital assets internally.
Updated: 3-28-2021
Bitcoin HODLers Are Not Selling: Inactive BTC Supply Hits 3-Month Low
Bitcoin supply that has not moved for over two years has hit a 3-month low, indicating conviction from long-time HODLers.
Long-time Bitcoin (BTC) HODLers are refraining from selling their holdings, on-chain data from Glassnode shows.
According to Glassnode’s “BTC Percent Supply Last Active 2+ Years” indicator, Bitcoin that was last moved well over two years ago reached a three-month low to 45.364%.
This trend indicates that Bitcoin HODLers who bought around the top of the last bull cycle in 2018 and before are showing deeper conviction as BTC consolidates above $55,000.
Interestingly, the spike during December 2020 suggests that many may have sold at a breakeven of around $20,000, or the previous all-time high in late 2017.
Why Is Bitcoin Consolidating With Low Volatility Bullish?
Bitcoin typically tops or sees a severe correction when long-time holders begin to sell rapidly.
In previous bull cycles, the sell-off from HODLers taking profit on their positions led to swift 50% drops, leading the entire cryptocurrency market to pullback intensely within short periods.
This trend coincides with the fact that HODLers are not selling a significant amount of BTC, indicating that the top could still be faraway from being reached.
Bitcoin stabilizing at around $55,000 is highly optimistic because of two main reasons. First, BTC has maintained a strong market structure despite some headwinds. Second, BTC consolidating closely under an all-time high is technically a positive sign.
In the past two weeks, Bitcoin faced major threats that could have catalyzed a serious short-term downturn.
Namely, the U.S. Treasury yields surged. This often causes tech stocks to drop-off, which negatively affects all risk-on markets.
Atop this, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju explained, miners are holding a lot of Bitcoin that they have not sold in recent months. In fact, the amount of BTC moved by miners was significantly less compared to previous pullbacks this year. This may suggest that miners are likely expecting higher prices down the road.
On March 17, Ki also noted three other factors based on on-chain trends that could contribute to a stagnating uptrend for Bitcoin. He wrote at the time:
“I think $BTC would take some time to get another leg up in terms of demand/supply. 1/ Too many $BTC holdings in USD compare to stablecoin holdings on spot exchanges. 2/ BTC market cap is too big to get another leg up by leveraging stablecoin market cap solely. No significant USD spot inflows – Neutral coinbase premium, and negative GBTC, QBTC premium.”
Despite the above-mentioned risks, Bitcoin has performed relatively well, avoiding a drop below $50,000.
Is The BTC bottom In?
Well-known pseudonymous traders, including “Rekt Capital,” have said that in the next couple days, there could be sufficient confirmation that a Bitcoin bottom could form.
It is difficult to predict when the exact bottom would form, but if BTC remains above $55,000 for a few days and prints a “higher low” formation, the trader said a new rally could occur. He wrote:
“You will never truly know when the actual #BTC bottom of the retrace is But you can look for ways for how a potential bottom could be confirmed If $BTC forms a Higher Low in the next couple of days, that should be sufficient confirmation that the bottom is in.”
Therefore, as long as the price of Bitcoin holds above $55,000 in the near term, the higher low formation would be intact as the market enters April, a historically bullish month that hasn’t closed in the red since 2015.
Updated: 3-30-2021
Oops! A 100% Bitcoin Hodl Outperformed CNBC’s 2017 Altcoin Basket By 170%
New numbers conclude that the best returns come from cutting through the noise and simply buying Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) has produced phenomenal returns most years, but when it comes to maximizing them, it’s best just to buy and hodl.
That was the conclusion from new data circulating on social media this week, which casts serious doubt on the merits of following investment advice from mainstream media.
Don’t Believe The Hype?
Under the microscope was CNBC, which in 2017 offered viewers an investment portfolio made up of 30% Bitcoin and 70% altcoins.
Four years later, those who invested $10,000 at the time now have around $52,300. Had they just bought and hodled Bitcoin, however, they would have over $140,000.
“The 30% #BTC allocation is responsible for 75% of the return,” Twitter account StatsBTC, which uploaded the numbers, noted in comments.
CNBC’s portfolio came courtesy of well-known pundit Brian Kelly, months before it hit then all-time highs of $20,000. Altcoins also saw peaks, months later in early 2018, with most only to crash and never recover.
Subsequently, the network gained an unenviable reputation for acting as a buy signal for investors — ironically by telling them not to invest in Bitcoin. The same fate has since befallen the likes of gold bug Peter Schiff.
As Cointelegraph reported, fellow host Jim Cramer, on the other hand, has embraced Bitcoin thanks to persuasion from Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano. His investment, thought to be around $500,000, has made Cramer “a ton of money,” he said earlier this month.
All Hail The King
Meanwhile, even a longer-term HODL strategy will have suffered from exposure to altcoins at the expense of its Bitcoin presence.
According to Bob Simon, owner of the StatsBTC account, $100 divided equally between Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin and Peercoin in March 2014 would now be worth $6,000. A Bitcoin-only punt, by contrast, would sell for $12,130.
“An equally weighted basket of the top 5 cryptocurrencies has underperformed Bitcoin by over 50% over the past 7 years,” he summarized.
Analysts still believe that this coming summer will produce huge gains for altcoins, with one arguing that a peak price “Alt Season 2.0” has already begun.
Updated: 4-1-2021
Bitcoin Newbies Are HODLing As Prices Rise, Blockchain Data Suggests
The new generation of HODLers were forged during market rallies over the past year, and show no signs of slowing down.
There’s a new generation of bitcoin HODLers.
New research from Glassnode, an on-chain data platform, shows continued growth in bitcoin (BTC) held between one month and six months, indicating strong conviction behind the recent price rally.
These coins were accumulated throughout the recent bull market, which means new HODLers (meaning, those holding crypto) are sitting on a near 500% increase since October.
* These HODLers were “forged in the dynamic market rallies brought on in 2020 and 2021,” according to Glassnode. “Many are on their way to becoming classified as long-term holder coins.” * BTC purchased between $10,800 and $58,800 now represents 25% of the total supply with no sign of slowing down, based on Glassnode’s data. * This means HODLers have continued to accumulate BTC throughout this bull market. “HODLed coins are beginning to mature, and continued outflows from exchanges demonstrates accumulation is not slowing down,” according to Glassnode.
Also, more BTC investors are moving their holdings into storage, which suggests less interest in short-term trading. Over the past 12 months, over 3% of the circulating BTC supply has migrated out of exchanges and into third-party wallets, according to Glassnode.
“Only two major exchanges have seen aggregate positive inflows (increased balances), Binance and Gemini. Gemini inflows will also correlate with Gemini’s institutional custody solutions, which further adds to the supply held in long-term storage.”
“Strong signals of accumulation show a supply vs. demand balance that is unlike any bull cycle we have seen before,” wrote Glassnode.
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