Bitcoin Transaction Fees Rise To 28-Month High As Hashrate Drops Amid Price Rally
The cost of doing transactions on bitcoin is surging while the network suffers its worst congestion in nearly three years. Bitcoin Transaction Fees Rise To 28-Month High As Hashrate Drops Amid Price Rally
As of Wednesday, the mean fee per transaction, or the average transaction cost, was 0.00086764 BTC (BTC, +2.17%), the highest since June 2018, according to data source Glassnode. In dollar terms, the average transaction fee was $11.66.
Average fees in bitcoin terms have increased by 573% in the past 12 days alongside the cryptocurrency’s price rally from $11,200 to $13,800.
“Bitcoin mempool [memory pool] is back in focus in the wake of rising transaction volumes, causing congestion in the network and consequently driving fees higher,” Denis Vinokourov, head of research at the London-based prime brokerage Bequant, told CoinDesk.
Mempool is the collection of unconfirmed transactions. When bitcoin transactions are executed, they are first sent to the mempool, where they wait for approval by miners. Bitcoin miners can process only 1 megabyte (MB) worth of transactions per block mined roughly every 10 minutes.
When the blockchain experiences a rise in traffic, it causes delays and a backlog of transactions. As demand outstrips supply, miners increase their revenue by prioritizing transactions with higher fees. That, in turn, forces other users to offer higher fees to avoid long waiting times.
Network congestion is usually seen during price rallies. As noted earlier, bitcoin has chalked out a significant rise over the past 12 days. During that time frame, network congestion, as measured by the total number of unconfirmed transactions in the mempool, worsened by 1,800%.
As of Tuesday, there were 121,340 unconfirmed transactions in the mempool with a total block size of 66.8 MB. According to data source blockchain.com, that’s the highest level since the bull market frenzy of December 2018.
Hashrate drop contributes to congestion
The recent slide in bitcoin’s hashrate looks to have played a big role in causing network congestion along with a general price-driven pickup in activity. In other words, the mining power dedicated to approving transactions and mining blocks has gone down amid the price rally, boosting waiting times and network congestion.
The seven-day moving average of bitcoin’s hashrate has declined from 146 exahashes per second (EH/s) to 120 EH/s.
In other words, the mining power available to approving transactions and mining blocks has gone down amid the price rally, boosting waiting times and network congestion.
With the end of the rainy season in China’s Sichuan province, a mining hub, some miners may be shifting to other areas with cheap hydroelectricity sources, causing a drop in the hashrate.
Bitcoin Network’s Computing Power: Is It An Accurate Predictor Of BTC Price?
Drops in Bitcoin’s hash rate coincided with some big BTC price corrections in the past.
Hash rate refers to the overall computing power involved in validating transactions on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain. As reported by Cointelegraph, more power suggests greater network security and interest in the profitability potential of mining Bitcoin.
Hash Rate A Function Of Bitcoin’s Value
A hash rate increase is often associated with the expectation of BTC price appreciation. Analysts found evidence that both the 2013 and 2016 bull cycles were marked by a rise in mining difficulty following the hash rate increase.
For instance, the 70% gains in 2021 coincided with multiple investments and large orders for mining equipment. But singling out cause and consequence is almost impossible.
A few examples include Argo Blockchain buying a 320-acre land pilot in Texas to expand operations, Bitfury’s U.S. mining subsidiary going public, and the BTC.com mining pool acquisition by a Chinese lottery service.
However, there have been periods of absolute dissonance, so maybe there is no direct relation between Bitcoin price and miners’ installed capacity.
Despite being impossible to measure precisely, the seven-day average hash rate yields better results to spot trend changes.
Most likely, 2017 was an outlier when it comes to BTC price as Bitcoin entered a phase of parabolic price growth. By August, the hash rate had also tripled to 6.8 TH/s. But the theory that the hash rate can predict price was undermined when the computing power then suddenly dropped by 25% with no apparent effect on the price.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s 132% surge over the last two months of 2017 seems to have been reflected only a few months later by the hash rate as it more than doubled between December 2017 and March 2018.
The second half of 2018 and 2019 provide a more interesting dataset as BTC price faced more vigorous movements and periods of stagnation. Meanwhile, the hash rate doubled from April 2018 to November 2018, peaking at 54 TH/s. Curiously, this peak preceded BTC’s sharp correction to $4,000.
On the other hand, both indicators bottomed in mid-December 2018, while the first half of 2019 presented a synchronized movement between BTC price and hash rate.
The second half of 2019 saw completely opposite trends as the hash rate went up by 66% while BTC price plunged 38%. This time around, BTC price peaked at $10,200 in mid-February 2020, while this happened only three weeks later for the hash rate.
Bitcoin Hash Rate And Price All-Time Highs Today
The most recent data also presents a strong correlation between the two metrics. Moreover, the hash rate of 166 TH per the second peak on Feb. 8 seems to have been mimicked two weeks later as BTC topped near $55,000.
Therefore, without a doubt, there is a strong correlation between hash rate and price, although there have been periods of six months or longer when the mining capacity continued to expand despite BTC price stagnating.
The same can be said for the abrupt hash rate drops, such as the recent one in October 2020, which had no impact on BTC price. Therefore, such a metric to predict short-term price movements appears to be unreliable. In other words, hash rate and price trends, albeit correlated, provide a slew of mixed signals that are sure to confuse any trader.
But despite the apparent long-term correlation, there are other factors that should also be taken into consideration since they can have a more immediate impact on price. These include new mining hardware, regulation, seasonality, geography, and variations in energy prices across the globe.
Bitcoin Hashrate Drops To 6 1/2-Month Low After China Mining Crackdown
The Bitcoin network’s processing power could rebound if miners relocate to other locales, one analyst predicts.
The Bitcoin hashrate – the total computational power used to secure transactions on the blockchain – has dropped to its lowest level since November, possibly a reflection of China’s recent crackdown on cryptocurrency mining amid concerns over the network’s energy consumption.
The seven-day average hashrate slid to 129.1 million exahashes per second on Tuesday, well off the all-time high of 180.6 million exahashes per second in mid-May, according to data from Glassnode. It’s still up from 105.6 million a year ago.
A higher hashrate means more resources devoted to processing transactions on the blockchain and greater resilience to attacks.
China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Qinghai province last week announced plans to shut down some or all bitcoin mines. Yunnan province said it would crack down on illegal operations, and officials in Sichuan province, another crypto mining hub, are in talks to determine regulations.
China-based 1THash, one of the world’s 15 largest mining pools, lost approximately 70% of its hashrate last week, according to Compass Mining Memo, citing data from MiningPoolStats.
However, some analysts predict that the drop in the Bitcoin hashrate will be reversed eventually as some miners leave China for other locales.
“Zooming out, the size and rate of the latest decrease is consistent with other previous drops,” wrote Zack Voell, content director at Compass Mining. “After machines shuffle around the map and hash power relocates to new regions, the steady growth of Bitcoin’s hashrate should resume.”
Bitcoin Mining Hashrate Drops To 1-Year Low; Difficulty Set For 25% Decrease
Concerns about the extent of the China crackdown have contributed to the past months’ decline in bitcoin’s price to about $34,200.
China’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies has been a blow for bitcoin mining companies and pools based in the country, with some hit harder than others. However, for active miners in other parts of the world, it might be good news.
Bitcoin’s mean hashrate – a measure of the computational power working to secure the blockchain network – fell to 94 EH/s on Sunday, the lowest since May 2020, according to data from Glassnode. Meanwhile, the bitcoin mining difficulty could see a 25% drop at the next reset, likely on July 3, based on Glassnode’s estimates.
A downward adjustment of that size could be the largest in the Bitcoin network’s 12-year history, according to Compass Mining.
With the hash power declining and most Chinese miners going offline, the business should become easier and potentially more profitable for miners that are still active, according to Sam Doctor, chief strategy officer at BitOoda, a digital asset financial services platform.
As hashrate declined, the number of daily bitcoin earned for each unit of computational power likely increased, which “certainly would imply more bitcoin” for active miners, according to Doctor. The dollar-equivalent value of the proceeds is harder to predict given the cryptocurrency’s notorious price volatility.
Concerns about the extent of the China crackdown have contributed to the past months’ decline in bitcoin’s price to about $34,200 now, from an all-time high near $65,000 in early April.
The fall in the bitcoin mining hash power is likely to continue, according to BitOoda, which predicts the target hashrate could drop further to 85 EH/s at the subsequent difficulty reset on July 19 or July 20.
“We believe it would take several quarters for the infrastructure deployment to be complete,” according to BitOoda. “As a result, hashrate will likely be below our prior forecasts for the next ~10 quarters.”
When will the fall come to an end? It may depend on how the crypto mining industry responds to China’s crackdown.
With Chinese miners looking for new places to host mining rigs, North America has attracted enormous interest due to its comparatively lower geopolitical risks, large-scale utility networks and emphasis on environmental, social, and corporate governance, according to Dave Perrill, CEO of Computer North, a cryptocurrency mining colocation company.
“We’re seeing a ton of inbound requests from Chinese-based mining companies that are looking to relocate to North America and are looking to do it urgently,” said Perrill. “We’re receiving over a hundred megawatts of requests per day.”
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Crypto Dusting Attack Affects Nearly 300,000 Addresses (#GotBitcoin?)
A Case For Bitcoin As Recession Hedge In A Diversified Investment Portfolio (#GotBitcoin?)
SEC Guidance Gives Ammo To Lawsuit Claiming XRP Is Unregistered Security (#GotBitcoin?)
15 Countries To Develop Crypto Transaction Tracking System: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
US Department Of Commerce Offering 6-Figure Salary To Crypto Expert (#GotBitcoin?)
Mastercard Is Building A Team To Develop Crypto, Wallet Projects (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Bitcoin Educator Scams The Scammer And Donates Proceeds (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon Wants To Build A Blockchain For Ads, New Job Listing Shows (#GotBitcoin?)
Shield Bitcoin Wallets From Theft Via Time Delay (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockstream Launches Bitcoin Mining Farm With Fidelity As Early Customer (#GotBitcoin?)
Commerzbank Tests Blockchain Machine To Machine Payments With Daimler (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Historical Returns Look Very Attractive As Online Banks Lower Payouts On Savings Accounts (#GotBitcoin?)
Man Takes Bitcoin Miner Seller To Tribunal Over Electricity Bill And Wins (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Computing Power Sets Record As Over 100K New Miners Go Online (#GotBitcoin?)
Walmart Coin And Libra Perform Major Public Relations For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Judge Says Buying Bitcoin Via Credit Card Not Necessarily A Cash Advance (#GotBitcoin?)
Poll: If You’re A Stockowner Or Crypto-Currency Holder. What Will You Do When The Recession Comes?
1 In 5 Crypto Holders Are Women, New Report Reveals (#GotBitcoin?)
Beating Bakkt, Ledgerx Is First To Launch ‘Physical’ Bitcoin Futures In Us (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook Warns Investors That Libra Stablecoin May Never Launch (#GotBitcoin?)
Government Money Printing Is ‘Rocket Fuel’ For Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin-Friendly Square Cash App Stock Price Up 56% In 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Safeway Shoppers Can Now Get Bitcoin Back As Change At 894 US Stores (#GotBitcoin?)
TD Ameritrade CEO: There’s ‘Heightened Interest Again’ With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuela Sets New Bitcoin Volume Record Thanks To 10,000,000% Inflation (#GotBitcoin?)
Newegg Adds Bitcoin Payment Option To 73 More Countries (#GotBitcoin?)
China’s Schizophrenic Relationship With Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
More Companies Build Products Around Crypto Hardware Wallets (#GotBitcoin?)
Bakkt Is Scheduled To Start Testing Its Bitcoin Futures Contracts Today (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Now 8 Times More Powerful Than It Was At $20K Price (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Exchange BitMEX Under Investigation By CFTC: Bloomberg (#GotBitcoin?)
“Bitcoin An ‘Unstoppable Force,” Says US Congressman At Crypto Hearing (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Network Is Moving $3 Billion Daily, Up 210% Since April (#GotBitcoin?)
Cryptocurrency Startups Get Partial Green Light From Washington
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bitcoin Pullback Is Healthy, Fewer Searches Аre Good (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Lightning Nodes Are Snatching Funds From Bad Actors (#GotBitcoin?)
The Provident Bank Now Offers Deposit Services For Crypto-Related Entities (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Could Help Stop News Censorship From Space (#GotBitcoin?)
US Sanctions On Iran Crypto Mining — Inevitable Or Impossible? (#GotBitcoin?)
US Lawmaker Reintroduces ‘Safe Harbor’ Crypto Tax Bill In Congress (#GotBitcoin?)
EU Central Bank Won’t Add Bitcoin To Reserves — Says It’s Not A Currency (#GotBitcoin?)
The Miami Dolphins Now Accept Bitcoin And Litecoin Crypt-Currency Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Bashes Bitcoin And Alt-Right Is Mad As Hell (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sachs Ramps Up Development Of New Secret Crypto Project (#GotBitcoin?)
Blockchain And AI Bond, Explained (#GotBitcoin?)
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Outperformed Indexes In First Half Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
XRP Is The Worst Performing Major Crypto Of 2019 (GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Back Near $12K As BTC Shorters Lose $44 Million In One Morning (#GotBitcoin?)
As Deutsche Bank Axes 18K Jobs, Bitcoin Offers A ‘Plan ฿”: VanEck Exec (#GotBitcoin?)
Argentina Drives Global LocalBitcoins Volume To Highest Since November (#GotBitcoin?)
‘I Would Buy’ Bitcoin If Growth Continues — Investment Legend Mobius (#GotBitcoin?)
Lawmakers Push For New Bitcoin Rules (#GotBitcoin?)
Facebook’s Libra Is Bad For African Americans (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Firm Charity Announces Alliance To Support Feminine Health (#GotBitcoin?)
Canadian Startup Wants To Upgrade Millions Of ATMs To Sell Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Trump Says US ‘Should Match’ China’s Money Printing Game (#GotBitcoin?)
Casa Launches Lightning Node Mobile App For Bitcoin Newbies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Rally Fuels Market In Crypto Derivatives (#GotBitcoin?)
World’s First Zero-Fiat ‘Bitcoin Bond’ Now Available On Bloomberg Terminal (#GotBitcoin?)
Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable 98.2% Of The Days Since Creation (#GotBitcoin?)
Another Crypto Exchange Receives License For Crypto Futures
From ‘Ponzi’ To ‘We’re Working On It’ — BIS Chief Reverses Stance On Crypto (#GotBitcoin?)
These Are The Cities Googling ‘Bitcoin’ As Interest Hits 17-Month High (#GotBitcoin?)
Venezuelan Explains How Bitcoin Saves His Family (#GotBitcoin?)
Quantum Computing Vs. Blockchain: Impact On Cryptography
This Fund Is Riding Bitcoin To Top (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Surge Leaves Smaller Digital Currencies In The Dust (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exchange Hits $1 Trillion In Trading Volume (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Breaks $200 Billion Market Cap For The First Time In 17 Months (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Make State Tax Payments In Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Religious Organizations Make Ideal Places To Mine Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Goldman Sacs And JP Morgan Chase Finally Concede To Crypto-Currencies (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Heading For Fifth Month Of Gains Despite Price Correction (#GotBitcoin?)
Breez Reveals Lightning-Powered Bitcoin Payments App For IPhone (#GotBitcoin?)
Big Four Auditing Firm PwC Releases Cryptocurrency Auditing Software (#GotBitcoin?)
Amazon-Owned Twitch Quietly Brings Back Bitcoin Payments (#GotBitcoin?)
JPMorgan Will Pilot ‘JPM Coin’ Stablecoin By End Of 2019: Report (#GotBitcoin?)
Is There A Big Short In Bitcoin? (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase Hit With Outage As Bitcoin Price Drops $1.8K In 15 Minutes
Samourai Wallet Releases Privacy-Enhancing CoinJoin Feature (#GotBitcoin?)
There Are Now More Than 5,000 Bitcoin ATMs Around The World (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Get Bitcoin Rewards When Booking At Hotels.Com (#GotBitcoin?)
North America’s Largest Solar Bitcoin Mining Farm Coming To California (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin On Track For Best Second Quarter Price Gain On Record (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Hash Rate Climbs To New Record High Boosting Network Security (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Exceeds 1Million Active Addresses While Coinbase Custodies $1.3B In Assets
Why Bitcoin’s Price Suddenly Surged Back $5K (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin’s Lightning Comes To Apple Smartwatches With New App (#GotBitcoin?)
E-Trade To Offer Crypto Trading (#GotBitcoin)
US Rapper Lil Pump Starts Accepting Bitcoin Via Lightning Network On Merchandise Store (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitfinex Used Tether Reserves To Mask Missing $850 Million, Probe Finds (#GotBitcoin?)
21-Year-Old Jailed For 10 Years After Stealing $7.5M In Crypto By Hacking Cell Phones (#GotBitcoin?)
You Can Now Shop With Bitcoin On Amazon Using Lightning (#GotBitcoin?)
Afghanistan, Tunisia To Issue Sovereign Bonds In Bitcoin, Bright Future Ahead (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Faithful Say Blockchain Can Remake Securities Market Machinery (#GotBitcoin?)
Disney In Talks To Acquire The Owner Of Crypto Exchanges Bitstamp And Korbit (#GotBitcoin?)
Crypto Exchange Gemini Rolls Out Native Wallet Support For SegWit Bitcoin Addresses (#GotBitcoin?)
Binance Delists Bitcoin SV, CEO Calls Craig Wright A ‘Fraud’ (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Outperforms Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Grows Whopping 37% In 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Bitcoin Passes A Milestone 400 Million Transactions (#GotBitcoin?)
Future Returns: Why Investors May Want To Consider Bitcoin Now (#GotBitcoin?)
Next Bitcoin Core Release To Finally Connect Hardware Wallets To Full Nodes (#GotBitcoin?)
Major Crypto-Currency Exchanges Use Lloyd’s Of London, A Registered Insurance Broker (#GotBitcoin?)
How Bitcoin Can Prevent Fraud And Chargebacks (#GotBitcoin?)
Why Bitcoin’s Price Suddenly Surged Back $5K (#GotBitcoin?)
Zebpay Becomes First Exchange To Add Lightning Payments For All Users (#GotBitcoin?)
Coinbase’s New Customer Incentive: Interest Payments, With A Crypto Twist (#GotBitcoin?)
The Best Bitcoin Debit (Cashback) Cards Of 2019 (#GotBitcoin?)
Real Estate Brokerages Now Accepting Bitcoin (#GotBitcoin?)
Ernst & Young Introduces Tax Tool For Reporting Cryptocurrencies (#GotBitcoin?)
How Will Bitcoin Behave During A Recession? (#GotBitcoin?)
Investors Run Out of Options As Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds, Oil Cave To Recession Fears (#GotBitcoin?)
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