Bitcoin’s Rivalry With Gold Plus Millennial Interest Gives It ‘Considerable’ Upside Potential: JPMorgan
Bitcoin has proven itself to be a risk asset, not a safe haven, with “considerable” potential upside, according to a Friday note from JPMorgan’s Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy team obtained by CoinDesk. Bitcoin’s Rivalry With Gold Plus Millennial Interest Gives It ‘Considerable’ Upside Potential: JPMorgan
Writing to clients in “Flows & Liquidity,” one of JPMorgan’s flagship publications, the authors said that characterizing bitcoin as a “risk” asset rather than a “safe” asset is “more appropriate” based on the leading cryptocurrency’s increased positive correlation with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since March.
Bitcoin’s function as a risk asset is “likely more of a reflection of a need for an ‘alternative’ currency rather than a need for a ‘safe’ asset or ‘hedge’.”
“To some extent, this is also true with gold,” the authors add, although the yellow metal’s volatility is notably lower than bitcoin’s.
How investors currently perceive bitcoin’s value implies that it could “compete more intensely” with gold as an “alternative” currency over the coming years, the analysts wrote. Bitcoin’s role as a gold competitor is amplified by Millennial investors’ interest in cryptocurrency, according to the note, and the inevitability of the younger investor demographic becoming “over time a more important component” of the investor universe.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization would have to increase by a factor of 10 before it could match the total private sector investment in gold, the author’s note, adding that “even a modest crowding out of gold as an alternative currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the bitcoin price from here.”
“In other words, the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable.”
Beyond Millennial investor interest, the note highlights the significance of corporate and legacy investor interest giving credibility to bitcoin as an investment vehicle. Specifically, PayPal’s Wednesday announcement of support for bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) is “another big step toward corporate support for bitcoin,” according to the note.
The authors also identify “strong growth” in institutional investor interest in bitcoin indicated by activity in CME futures and options markets. As of Thursday, for example, CME bitcoin futures markets quietly became the second-largest measured by open interest, overtaking BitMEX and Binance, two dominant crypto-only trading platforms.
Utility as a store of value isn’t the only catalyst for potential upside, however. According to the authors, the price of bitcoin and altcoins could appreciate significantly if adopted as means of payment. “The more economic agents accept cryptocurrency as a means of payment in the future, the higher their utility and value,” the note says.
Ultimately, even though bitcoin “looks currently overbought for the near term,” the authors reiterate that the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is “considerable.”
Family Offices May Now See Bitcoin As Alternative To Gold: JPMorgan Report
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is outperforming gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a trend perhaps driven by institutional investors like family offices, according to a report by JPMorgan analysts that CoinDesk has obtained.
“This contract lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold,” the analysts wrote in the Nov. 6 report.
The climb of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust indicates it’s not just millennials driving demand for bitcoin, but institutional investors like family offices and asset managers, the analysts said. Grayscale is part of Digital Currency Group, CoinDesk’s parent company.
The Analysts Continued:
[“As we had highlighted in our previous [report] of [Oct. 23], the potential long-term upside for bitcoin is considerable if it competes more intensely with gold as an ‘alternative’ currency given that the market cap of bitcoin would have to rise 10 times from here to match the total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins.”
The analysts noted, however, that the “sharp spike in prices this week appears to have taken bitcoin close to overbought levels” which could trigger a sell-off.
Deutsche Bank Says Investors Increasingly Prefer Bitcoin Over Gold As Inflation Hedge
Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value asset is strengthening, according to analysts at Germany-based investment bank Deutsche Bank.
“There seems to be an increasing demand to use bitcoin where gold used to be used to hedge dollar risk, inflation, and other things,” Jim Reid, managing director, head of global fundamental credit strategy, said, according to ZeroHedge.
Bitcoin has long been considered by supporters as digital gold due to its limited, predictable supply and use case as a store of value outside banking influence.
While bitcoin has gained 144% this year, gold is up 22%. Both assets seem to have benefitted from the inflation-boosting monetary and fiscal policies launched by central banks and governments across the globe to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
The cryptocurrency has rallied over 25% this month alone despite hopes for a swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines and improved risk appetite in stock markets. Gold, however, has lived up to its reputation as a haven asset by falling 1% so far this month.
The divergence between gold and silver on the one hand, and bitcoin on the other, is one of the oddities of this month, according to Reid. U.S.-based drug makers Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) announced encouraging results for their experimental coronavirus vaccines earlier this month, triggering a rotation of money out of gold and other haven assets and into risk assets.
Reid told Bloomberg earlier this month that coronavirus vaccines are equivalent to global fiscal stimulus. Christian Nolting, global chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, said inflation could rise moderately in 2021 and 2022, boding well for stocks and gold.
At press time, bitcoin is trading near $17,550, while gold is changing hands at $1,860 per ounce.
BlackRock CIO Says ‘Bitcoin Will Take The Place Of Gold To A Large Extent’
Bitcoin’s network effect has forced traditional financiers to change their tune on the digital currency.
A senior executive at BlockRock, the world’s largest asset manager, admits that Bitcoin (BTC) has become a permanent fixture in the global financial system, offering yet another tangible sign that the narrative surrounding digital currency has changed.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of Fixed Income, told CNBC on Friday that, “Bitcoin is here to stay.”
While conceding that he is not a Bitcoin bull, Rieder said the flagship currency “will take the place of gold to a large extent [because] it is so more functional than passing a bar of gold around.”
Bitcoin is sometimes referred to as “digital gold” for its unique store-of-value characteristics. Bitcoin’s most ardent proponents believe that it will eventually take a sizable portion of gold’s market cap as more investors realize its utility.
Priced in gold, 1 Bitcoin is currently worth 9.961 ounces.
2020 could go down as the year that major Bitcoin narratives changed, especially among institutional investors who have long been skeptical about digital currencies. Investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller have thrown their weight behind Bitcoin, while major banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan have issued positive guidance on the flagship cryptocurrency.
On the business side, it’s estimated that corporations hold 4.54% of Bitcoin’s total supply, which is equivalent to around $15.3 billion at current prices.
BlackRock, meanwhile, has indirect exposure to Bitcoin through its ownership stake in MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm that converted most of its cash reserves into BTC earlier this year.
‘No Debate’ That Bitcoin Will Increase 20X Says Gold Industry Insider
Dan Tapiero told Anthony Pompliano that $15 trillion in institutional capital could flow into Bitcoin, pushing prices as high as $500,000.
Gold Bullion International co-founder Dan Tapiero believes that it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin’s price surges into the six-figure threshold.
Speaking to Anthony Pompliano on the Pomp Podcast, Tapiero asserted that in terms of price appreciation Bitcoin is the king, even though he believes investors should own both gold and Bitcoin:
“In the next five years, I can see gold at $4,000, so that’s double. But if gold is at $4,000, Bitcoin is probably somewhere between $300,000 and $500,000, so that’s a 20, 30x.”
He went on to add, “I don’t really think that anyone in the gold world […] they are not going to debate that.”
Tapiero believes that institutional investors and finance whales are likely to invest between five to 15 percent of their portfolios in Bitcoin and noted that sector was currently worth $100 trillion:
“That’s a huge chunk. I mean, 15% of $100 trillion is $15 trillion.”
Bitcoin is a hedge for the fiat system, he explained, and once its market cap is in the trillions of dollars, it will become easier to handle for larger investors, similar to gold.
But gold is a store of value, and that is only one aspect of what Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is an entire network, and that’s why he believes it will be much bigger than gold:
“There is no question that Bitcoin is going to outperform gold.”
Other analysts are similarly bullish about Bitcoin, with Off the Chain Capital chief investment officer Brian Estes telling Reuters today that it “is not a stretch” for BTC to surpass $100,000 in one year, and predicted that it could go as high as $288,000 by the end of 2021.
CNBC host Jim Cramer also believes in the future of Bitcoin, as revealed on another podcast with Pompliano. Cramer, who was a Bitcoin skeptic during the 2017 bull market, recently stated that he had since realized that Bitcoin is a good hedge against inflation and also one that his kids can understand,:
“I think that my kids, when they get my inheritance, won’t feel comfortable with gold, and will feel comfortable with crypto.”
Gold And Bitcoin Eye Inflation-Adjusted All-Time Highs… But It’s Taken Gold 40 Years
Taking U.S. dollar devaluation into account, Gold has still not reached the all-time price high it set in 1980.
Gold bug and Bitcoin (BTC) skeptic Peter Schiff was just 17 years old when the yellow metal set its true all-time price high. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, a much younger asset, sits close to its inflation-adjusted all-time high, or ATH, after just three years of downward pressure.
Adjusted for inflation, gold reached a price of $678 U.S. dollars in 1980, according to a breakdown from Visual Capitalist. Accounting for inflation, based on calculations from Officialdata .org, $678 in 1980 held the same buying power as approximately $2,142 in 2020.
The precious metal technically broke its U.S. dollar all-time high this year, hitting $2,075 according to TradingView data. Its 1980 record purchasing power level remains unbroken, however. Since its push to $2,075 in August, gold has retraced in price, sitting near $1,778 per ounce at time of publication.
Bitcoin hit its last all-time price high in 2017, tagging $19,891.99 according to Coinbase’s price index. Accounting for inflation, Bitcoin’s record high stands at $21,131.02 in terms of value, Officialdata .org indicates.
Gold has stood the test of time as a store of value for thousands of years, undergoing price discovery in each era as people determined the metal’s worth through buying and selling.
The game has potentially changed with BTC though, which is similar to a digital representation of gold — a commodity with scarce supply used for value storage. Bitcoin touts lower barriers for storage and transaction, also holding a defined limited supply.
Economist Peter Schiff has pitted gold against BTC many times, often discounting Bitcoin’s worth. While gold moves slowly in price compared to Bitcoin, Schiff likes gold for its wealth-maintenance role.
Bitcoin has ridden a dramatic price rally in recent weeks, reaching within $100 of its Coinbase all-time price high. Raoul Pal, a macro investor, recently indicated his intention to sell his gold stack and buy more BTC.
“I have a sell order in tomorrow to sell all my gold and to scale in to buy BTC and ETH (80/20),” he tweeted on Nov. 29. “I dont own anything else (except some bond calls and some $’s),” he said, adding: “98% of my liquid net worth. See, you can’t categorize me except #irresponsiblylong.”
Amid Bitcoin’s upward surge, people are reportedly exiting gold in droves, as seen in recent record outflow numbers.
Bitcoin Will Eat Gold’s Market Share, According To JPMorgan
The investment bank says gold could languish for years as Bitcoin’s popularity grows.
Growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin (BTC) as a reserve asset is having a direct impact on gold, setting the stage for a major shift in institutional allocation between the two assets, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
Quantitative strategists, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, believe that Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative will draw investors away from precious metals, possibly for years to come, leading to a large divergence in price between the two assets.
The bank said Bitcoin only accounts for 0.18% of assets held at family offices, compared with 3.3% for gold exchange-traded funds. Using this data as a starting point, only a small reallocation from gold to BTC could lead to “structural headwinds” for bullion’s price.
In A Note To Clients That Was Obtained By Bloomberg, The Strategists Said:
“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold, its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced. If this medium to longer-term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years.”
Looking beyond JPMorgan’s analysis, there is clear evidence that institutional uptake of Bitcoin is rising. Grayscale, a digital-asset manager, has recorded record inflows into its Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) trusts. Grayscale, Paypal and Cash App are buying up more BTC than is being mined each day.
Data aggregator CoinShares has also reported on the recent surge in crypto capital inflows. Over just four weeks, Bitcoin products sucked in $1.4 billion. Gold, meanwhile, recorded record outflows of $9.2 billion.
Investors wishing to go along with the trend can purchase one unit of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust and sell three units of the SPDR Gold Shares trust, the bank said.
Despite Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition, the digital asset is likely overextended after the latest rally. The strategists cite the possibility of strong selling pressure in the short term.
Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $18,000 on Wednesday, having declined by more than 7% at the lowest point.
Can Gold And Bitcoin Coexist? Goldman Sachs Says Yes
Global investors cut gold exposure in favor of Bitcoin, but does the digital coin have any chance to cannibalize gold?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) parabolic surge in 2020 will not hurt major traditional assets like gold, according to Goldman Sachs.
One of the world’s biggest investment banks, Goldman Sachs reportedly sent a note to investors, reassuring its clients that Bitcoin does not pose an existential threat to gold, Bloomberg reports Dec. 18. “We do not see evidence that Bitcoin’s rally is cannibalizing gold’s bull market and believe the two can coexist,” the company wrote.
Goldman Sachs Still Admitted That Bitcoin’s Ongoing Rally Could Steal Some Demand From Gold Investors, Stating:
“Gold’s recent underperformance versus real rates and the dollar has left some investors concerned that Bitcoin is replacing gold as the inflation hedge of choice. […] While there is some substitution occurring, we do not see Bitcoin’s rising popularity as an existential threat to gold’s status as the currency of last resort.”
Amid Bitcoin breaking its new all-time highs in December, global investors are increasingly moving into Bitcoin. Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at independent investment bank Jeffries Financial, has reportedly cut his gold exposure to buy more Bitcoin.
According to a Dec. 18 report by Indian news agency Business Standard, the renowned market analyst is trimming his gold investment for the first time in several years. Wood wrote in a note to investors that his BTC allocations account for 5% of his portfolio:
“The 50 per cent weight in physical gold bullion in the portfolio will be reduced for the first time in several years by five percentage points with the money invested in Bitcoin. If there is a big drawdown in bitcoin from the current level, after the historic breakout above the $20,000 level, the intention will be to add to this position.”
According to the report, Wood plans to further increase exposure to crypto in case of corrections. Still, the analyst took a similar stance to Goldman Sachs by remaining bullish on gold as well.
“This does not mean that GREED & fear is going to give up on gold. And the yellow metal should rally again if the Fed stays dovish in the face of the dramatic cyclical recovery that is coming on the other side of the pandemic, in line with GREED & fear’s base case,” Wood said.
On Dec. 17, Bitcoin posted another historic all-time high, rising above $23,000. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $23,133, according to Cointelegraph’s BTC price index. In contrast, gold prices dropped on Thursday, with both spot hold and futures tumbling 0.3%. Gold lost about 10% from its all-time high in August of $2,076.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin Is ‘Overbought’ But Will Suck Money Out Of Gold
Institutions need to keep buying to avoid a price drop, JPMorgan analysts say, but the outlook is rosy and will come at the expense of gold.
Institutional investors may be all that’s pushing up the price of Bitcoin (BTC), a new report from JPMorgan Chase claims.
In comments on Dec. 18 quoted by Bloomberg, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou added to recent forecasts about the role of institutions in Bitcoin’s future.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin “Overbought”
According to JPMorgan, the largescale inflows seen this month must continue to avoid a price correction.
As Cointelegraph reported, theories tied to recent price rises include institutional investors buying via over-the-counter trades that suck up the available supply. This has been called a liquidity crisis, which will only accentuate with time, while this week, another analyst claimed that the cycle could fuel the Bitcoin bull run indefinitely.
For JPMorgan, however, buyers need to keep up the pace to avoid the opposite scenario: losses.
Concerning Grayscale, which now has $13.1 billion in crypto assets under management, they reasoned that the sheer size of inflows means that they “are too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamic.”
Despite this, Bitcoin was still “overbought” at current price levels near $24,000 as the relative strength index (RSI) rose above 70. A later price dip on Monday brought the RSI below this threshold.
More Gold Price Pressure Moving Forward
Previously, Panigirtzoglou and others suggested that Bitcoin could benefit from a $600 billion cash injection from institutional uptake after insurance giant MassMutual revealed a $100 million allocation.
Building on previous warnings over gold losing its place to Bitcoin, meanwhile, the latest findings identified a new “trend” formed by Grayscale. Exposure to Bitcoin could involve one buying one unit of Grayscale while selling three units of the SPDR Gold Trust.
“If this medium to longer term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural flow headwind over the coming years,” they added.
The correlation between gold and Bitcoin has decreased since October as Bitcoin rallied to new all-time highs. Gold saw rejection at $1,900 on Monday after extending a modest recovery from lows below $1,800.
Gold Heads For Best Close In Six Weeks As Trump Signs Stimulus
Gold headed for the highest close in six weeks after President Donald Trump signed a $900 billion coronavirus stimulus package, pumping more state funds into the world’s top economy. Silver surged.
The haven built on a run of four weekly gains following the breakthrough on the package, which Trump had initially declined to endorse amid a dispute on the size of checks to support households amid the pandemic. The dollar fell.
Bullion is set to post the first monthly gain since July after a run of losses prompted by the development of effective coronavirus vaccines. Over 2020 as a whole, gold has benefited from a steady weakening of the U.S. currency since it peaked in March, as well as from unprecendented fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Spot gold rose as much as 0.9% to $1,900.31 an ounce, and traded at $1,886.29 at 7:49 a.m. in London. That would be the highest close since Nov. 16. Silver for immediate delivery rallied as much as 3.6% to $26.7714 an ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.3%.
The relief package will likely be the last major legislation signed by Trump, whose re-election hopes were dashed in large part due to his handling of the pandemic. President-elect Joe Biden has said he will push for even more stimulus after taking office early next year.
Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Against Gold As Haven Battle Rages
BTC has hit another milestone, this time against gold bullion, the world’s oldest reserve asset.
Bitcoin price claimed another all-time high on Friday, this time against gold, offering further confirmation that demand for digital assets is on the rise.
As Bitcoin (BTC) zipped past $29,000 on Friday, the digital currency reached a high of 15.40 gold ounces, surpassing the previous peak from December 2017, according to MarketWatch data.
According to U.Today, the Bitcoin-gold rate peaked at 15.62 ounces during the early morning.
2020 was a watershed year for Bitcoin as institutional adoption helped catalyze a bull market unlike any we’ve seen thus far in its 11-year history. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin saw a massive increase of around 300% in 2020.
Gold also posted impressive gains for the year, though they paled in comparison to Bitcoin’s meteoric rise. The yellow metal’s spot price ended the year on a 25% gain.
Bitcoin’s biggest proponents believe the digital currency is eating away at gold’s market cap as investors opt for the efficiency, portability and proven scarcity of the asset. Astonishingly, that view is also shared by JPMorgan Chase analysts, who believe Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative is drawing capital away from precious metals.
Some believe that Bitcoin’s supply squeeze could send prices higher over the course of 2021. As Cointelegraph recently reported, digital asset manager Grayscale bought up nearly three times the BTC mined in December. Demand from PayPal, Cash App and others has also contributed to an apparent supply shortage of BTC.
Bitcoin Is Now Worth More Than A 20-Ounce Gold Bar
As Bitcoin price topped $40,000, it became more valuable than a 20-ounce block of gold.
Bitcoin’s meteoric price rise is showing no signs of slowing down, and its latest all-time high has priced the asset higher than a 20-ounce gold bar.
Over the past six hours, Bitcoin (BTC) prices topped $40,000 briefly, according to Tradingview.com. The move has added a further 5% over the past 24 hours, and the rally is showing no signs of cooling down yet.
Industry observers often call Bitcoin “digital gold,” as it is a store of value asset, and this latest price peak pushed prices higher than those for the standard 20-ounce gold bar.
At the time of writing, gold is currently trading at $1,912 per oz, according to GoldPrice.org, so a 20-ounce bar would set you back $38,240. Bitcoin’s price, taken at the same time, is a little over $39,000.
— Documenting Bitcoin (@DocumentBitcoin) January 7, 2021
The secretary and vice chairman of the DigiByte Foundation, Rudy Bouwman, while touting his own cryptocurrency said:
The secretary and vice chairman of the DigiByte Foundation, Rudy Bouwman, while touting his own cryptocurrency said:
“Bitcoin will become like gold bars, only a store of value.”
This rally is slightly different from the one in 2017, as it is being primarily driven by institutions, which unlike retail traders tend to hold the asset for long-term investment rather than flip it for a short-term profit. This notion enforces the store-of-value properties of Bitcoin, making it more comparable to gold than ever before.
In terms of performance, Bitcoin has made a whopping 378% gain over the past 12 months, whereas gold has only managed to gain 21.6% in the same period.
Additionally, Bitcoin is still making new all-time highs, but gold prices have retreated 7.6% from theirs, which was $2,070/oz on Aug. 6, 2020.
Gold bug and perpetual Bitcoin basher Peter Schiff finally admitted that Bitcoin was actually taking demand away from gold, as evidenced by those figures.
“To the extent that Bitcoin is actually taking any demand away from gold, that’s making Fed governors extremely happy. A rising gold price is what central bankers fear most. Bitcoin is their best friend, which may explain why regulators aren’t in a hurry to help pop the bubble.”
With the price of a single Bitcoin now higher than a bar of gold, the question remains: How much further can it climb?
Experts: Gold Outflows Are Pushing Bitcoin Higher
Gold’s prospects seem to dim as Bitcoin’s glitter.
According to multiple experts, one possible reason for Bitcoin’s remarkable recent price rise are massive investor outflows from another popular inflation hedge: gold.
Spot gold swooned over the past week, falling 4.62% to $1,857. The asset previously had been surging in unison with Bitcoin, which is up over 40% from $28,000 lows last week.
In a Tweet on Friday, Charlie Morris, founder and CIO at ByteTree Asset Management, said that the pullback in gold might be attributable to investors moving to Bitcoin:
With bond yields up and inflation expectations down today, #gold has taken a hit. This justifies a $50 sell off, but price is down $120. I’d attribute the excess to flows moving towards #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/qsWBb8NaXA
— Charlie Morris (@AtlasPulse) January 8, 2021
Likewise, earlier in the week, CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer said that the outflows from gold ETFs are “all going to crypto.” Tracking inflows and outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin investment trust and gold ETFs back this assertion, as Grayscale has eclipsed gold:
#Bitcoin‘s competition w/gold has already started as evidenced by >$3bn of inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust & >$7bn of outflows from Gold ETFs since Oct, JPM says: Competition w/gold as alternative currency will continue given millennials will become over time more important. pic.twitter.com/lkXmDIN9e4
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) January 4, 2021
The moves could be a sign of Bitcoin’s rising status as a legitimate asset class. Gold and Bitcoin have long been linked as both are seen as a way to protect wealth against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty, but if the price movements over the last week are any indication, however, Bitcoin may be winning the narrative race.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Coinshares chief revenue officer Frank Spiteri said that the narrative surrounding Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is gaining legs “in the face of a highly unconventional monetary policy environment.”
Bitcoin Becoming A Cyclical Asset, Not A Hedge, According To JPMorgan Strategists
Strategists at the Wall Street megabank disagree with their colleagues view that Bitcoin is becoming digital gold.
The Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has put the flagship cryptocurrency on par with cyclical assets as opposed to a hedge against market stress, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
JPMorgan strategists John Normand and Federico Manicardi say anyone betting on Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier is putting themselves at risk. In a Thursday report obtained by Bloomberg, the strategists called Bitcoin the “least reliable hedge during periods of acute market stress.”
“The mainstreaming of crypto ownership is raising correlations with cyclical assets, potentially converting them from insurance to leverage.”
Cyclical assets typically refer to stocks that follow the trend in the overall economy, which means their performance depends on the business cycle. These companies produce goods and services that are in demand when the economy is performing well. Consequently, these are some of the first items people forego when the economy weakens.
Cyclical stocks include companies in the restaurant, hospitality, airline, furniture, automobile and other discretionary industries.
While seemingly arguing against Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, the strategists acknowledged that the cryptocurrency may be suitable for investors worried about policy shocks and the systemic devaluation of fiat currencies.
In that vein, their views seem to diverge from fellow JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou who believe that Bitcoin is drawing investors away from precious metals. As Cointelegraph reported last month, Panigirtzoglou and colleagues argue that only a small reallocation from gold to Bitcoin would generate “structural” headwinds for the precious commodity.
They Said At The Time:
“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold, its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced. If this medium to longer-term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years.”
Against the backdrop of these competing views, Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. The cryptocurrency more than doubled in price over a three-week period, going from $20,000 to nearly $42,000, before seeing a pullback in bullish momentum earlier this month. It has since corrected roughly $10,000 from its all-time high, including a 20% drop over the past seven days.
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Says BTC Could Be Headed To $50K As Gold Loses Appeal
The Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio could shoot to 100x with the digital asset’s volatility possibly dropping to gold levels by 2024.
Bitcoin will continue its bullish push towards $50,000 as investors move funds out of gold and into the digital asset, according to Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone.
By 2024, he believes its volatility could even reach gold levels, driving the price much further.
In a report published on Wednesday, McGlone explained that BTC is showing strong support at $30,000, and “increasing institutional adoption and the potential for the benchmark to become a global reserve asset” could drive the price to $50,000 or higher.
The report cited evidence of funds moving to Bitcoin from gold, highlighting accelerating flows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and decline in total known ETF holdings of gold. The investment firm has grown its GBTC fund from 1%, to 10%, of the “$210 billion tracking-gold ETFs” across 2020.
“In a world going digital,” he stated, “it’s logical to expect more funds to flow toward Bitcoin and away from precious metals.”
Mcglone Believes Investing Up To 5% In Bitcoin Is Becoming An Increasingly Wise Decision:
“Absent a major technology glitch, old-guard gold allocators are primarily at risk if the crypto becomes a reserve asset and Bitcoin as 1-5% of one’s investable assets becomes increasingly prudent.”
A rise in stock-market volatility has boded well for gold and bitcoin in the past the strategist explained, with a combined investment of Bitcoin and gold showing a lower 260-day volatility rate (30%) when compared to the S&P 500 (35%).
Despite this, McGlone believes that the digital asset has the potential for its resistance levels to rise to 100 times the resistance levels of gold. Current resistance levels for BTC ($40,000) are 22 times that of gold ($1,800).
During the 2017 bull run, the Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio shot up from 1x to 15x in a matter of months.
McGlone said Bitcoin was on track to match Gold’s level of risk by 2024. In fact, he said Bitcoin could become even less volatile than gold due to its fixed supply.
“To approach this milestone, Bitcoin may have to simply maintain what it’s been doing: appreciating in price and maturing.”
The current 260-day volatility for BTC sits at 50%, which he equates to gold’s 1980 volatility levels.
McGlone also made mention of Ethereum, claiming it is turning the resistance level of $1,000 into a support level that is “unlikely” to break. He likened its trend to that of Q1 2017 in which it rose from $10 to above $40 before shooting up to over $1,000 nine months later.
JPMorgan Says Flows To Into Major Crypto Fund Are Key To Bitcoin’s Outlook
The odds of a Bitcoin correction would increase if the flows into the world’s largest traded cryptocurrency fund slow significantly, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s assets under management have climbed to $13.1 billion from $2 billion at the start of December last year, amid a tripling in the digital currency’s price so far in 2020. Inflows into the fund are running at about $1 billion per month, the strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Friday.
While it’s hard to avoid describing Bitcoin as “overbought,” the flows into the trust “are too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics,” the strategists said. A major slowdown in those flows would boost the risk of a Bitcoin correction akin to the one in the second half of 2019, they said.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $24,291.38 on Sunday, according to a composite of prices compiled by Bloomberg. The cryptocurrency’s backers argue it’s gaining ground among longer-term investors as a hedge against dollar weakness and risks such as higher inflation. Others claim an unsustainable speculative fervor, exacerbated by trend-following quant funds, lies behind much of the rally in Bitcoin and other digital assets.
In 2019, the largest cryptocurrency slipped 44% from a peak in late June to $7,158 by the end of that year, though it still almost doubled for 2019 as a whole.
There are signs of growing corporate and institutional interest in Bitcoin despite its famed volatility. Public companies Square Inc. and MicroStrategy Inc. recently invested in it. Investment managers Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller have backed the digital asset as a hedge against inflationary pressure, though price increases remain subdued.
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co., which has been around since 1851, said this month it had purchased $100 million of Bitcoin for its general investment fund.
Over the weekend, Elon Musk inquired about converting “large transactions” of Tesla Inc.’s balance sheet into Bitcoin in a Twitter exchange with Michael Saylor, the chief executive officer of MicroStrategy.
“Are such large transactions even possible?” Musk tweeted in response to Saylor. Numerous people assured him they are, as well as Saylor, who said he had purchased more than $1.3 billion in Bitcoin and offered to share his “playbook” offline.
Bitcoin climbed about 2% to $23,903 as of 2:31 p.m. in Tokyo. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index also advanced about 2%.
JPMorgan Note To Clients Endorses 1% Allocation To Bitcoin As A Hedge
Bitcoin would serve as a hedge against fluctuations in traditional assets.
Strategists at Wall Street banking giant JPMorgan have suggested that a one percent portfolio allocation to Bitcoin would serve as a hedge against fluctuations in traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities.
A small percentage allocation was advised to mitigate the risk of any large downturns in the digital asset’s value. Bitcoin has declined 20% since its all-time high of over $58,000 on Feb. 21 but it is up 60% since the beginning of this year.
According to Bloomberg, JPM strategists Joyce Chang and Amy Ho stated in a note to clients:
“In a multi-asset portfolio, investors can likely add up to 1% of their allocation to cryptocurrencies in order to achieve any efficiency gain in the overall risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio,”
The endorsement comes on the back of major investments in Bitcoin by Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, Tesla, and MicroStrategy. The report added that BNY Mellon (Bank of New York Mellon Corporation) has also announced plans to hold, transfer and issue the digital asset for its clients.
The JPMorgan analysts added that crypto assets should be treated as investment vehicles and not funding currencies such as USD or JPY. The comments appear to contradict those made earlier this month by other strategists at the investment bank who claimed that “crypto assets continue to rank as the poorest hedge for major drawdowns in equities.”
Speaking to CNBC on Feb. 17, Ark Investment Management’s Cathie Wood observed that if all corporations were to put 10% of their cash into Bitcoin, it would add $200,000 to the asset’s price.
Cryptocurrency purchases have surged in 2021, and it is not just institutions that are loading up. Trading firm Robinhood has reported that about 6 million new users bought cryptocurrencies on the platform just the first two months of this year.
The numbers have dwarfed those for the previous year indicating that the bullish momentum from the retail sector is still strong despite the recent correction. At the time of writing, BTC had retreated a further 7% over the past 24 hours to trade at $47,100.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the latest Wall Street firm floating the idea of investors using Bitcoin as a way to diversify their portfolios.
Strategists have recently touted cryptocurrency as a way to hedge against significant fluctuations in traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds and commodities. Rather than making any big bets on Bitcoin, they’ve been recommending a relatively small allocation, which wouldn’t take too much of a hit even if the price goes down substantially.
“In a multi-asset portfolio, investors can likely add up to 1% of their allocation to cryptocurrencies in order to achieve any efficiency gain in the overall risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio,” strategists including Joyce Chang and Amy Ho wrote in a note Wednesday.
Bitcoin has surged fivefold in the past year as prominent investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller and Elon Musk have piled in, with Tesla Inc. recently announcing a $1.5 billion purchase of the asset. There were 106 million users of cryptocurrency in January, up from 92 million in the previous prior month, according to Crypto.com. BNY Mellon has announced plans to hold, transfer and issue the digital currency for its clients, while assets in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have more than doubled to $33.5 billion since December.
Cryptocurrencies may be relatively new and volatile, but they’re also somewhat uncorrelated with other assets, and may be able to provide a good hedge. Former Federal Reserve economists Roberto Perli and Benson Durham at Cornerstone Macro LLC have run calculations and found that the volatility of equity portfolios can usually be reduced by adding some amount of digital assets.
“Through the insatiable buy-side pressure from exchange-traded fund issuers, close-ended funds and large public corporations adding Bitcoin to their positions, demand is massively outstripping supply,” said Annabelle Huang, partner at Amber Group.
If all corporations were to put 10% of their cash into Bitcoin, it would add $200,000 to the token’s price, Ark Investment Management’s Cathie Wood said in a recent interview on CNBC.
JPMorgan said that digital coins have limits to their usefulness, however.
“Cryptocurrencies are investment vehicles and not funding currencies,” the strategists said. “So when looking to hedge a macro event with a currency, we recommend a hedge through funding currencies like the yen or U.S. dollar instead.”
Gold Posts Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2016
Gold futures down 9.5% for the first quarter.
Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday, with prices recovering recent losses that dragged prices to a more than three-week low, but the precious metal still suffered its biggest quarterly loss since the fourth quarter of 2016.
The metal gained Wednesday in what appeared to be quarter-end short covering, said Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants.
Gold’s decline for the first quarter, however, is “largely the result of investors reducing exposure after inflation concerns abated,” said Timothy Hanna, co-portfolio manager of the Gold Bullion Strategy Fund.
On a technical basis, the “death cross” chart pattern seen in February, when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, “exacerbated the sell-off through March, as gold attempts to find new support levels.”
On Wednesday, the front-month April gold contract tacked on $29.90, or 1.8%, to end at $1,713.80 an ounce. That followed a nearly 1.7% slump for the precious metal on Comex Tuesday, which sent prices to their lowest finish since March 8, according to FactSet data.
Bitcoin Volatility Decline Paves Way For Banks, JPMorgan Says
The recent pullback in Bitcoin’s volatility is setting the stage for a trend that could encourage institutions to dive in, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“These tentative signs of Bitcoin volatility normalization are encouraging,” strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in report emailed Thursday. “In our opinion, a potential normalization of Bitcoin volatility from here would likely help to reinvigorate the institutional interest going forward.”
Three-month realized volatility for the cryptocurrency has fallen to 86% after rising above 90% in February, they wrote. The six-month measure appears to be stabilizing at around 73%. As volatility subsides, a greater number of institutions could warm to the crypto space, the strategists said.
The coin’s volatility has kept institutions away, something that’s been a key consideration for risk management — the higher the volatility of an asset, the higher the risk capital consumed by it, according to the strategists. None of the biggest U.S. banks right now provide direct access to Bitcoin and its counterparts.
Still, traditional Wall Street firms have been taking a greater interest in the coin, especially after it doubled this year on the heels of a 300% jump in 2020.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this week it’s close to offering investment vehicles for Bitcoin and other digital assets to private wealth clients. Morgan Stanley plans to give rich clients access to three funds that will enable ownership of crypto and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is developing a platform for traditional and digital assets.
Some of the attention on Bitcoin over the past two quarters has come at the expense of gold, JPMorgan’s strategists said, citing $7 billion of inflows into Bitcoin funds and $20 billion of outflows from exchange-traded funds tracking the precious metal.
Meanwhile, an additional boost to future adoption by institutions could arise from recent changes in Bitcoin’s correlation structure relative to other, traditional assets, according to JPMorgan strategists. These correlations have shifted lower in recent months, “making Bitcoin a more attractive option for multi-asset portfolios for diversification point of view and less vulnerable to any further appreciation in the dollar,” they wrote.
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